Ji Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 the 12z NAM is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the 12z NAM is awful But what if one likes rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Yeah its the NAM, but the 12z edition has the Norlun back to our north in northern NJ and LI, which is a more typical location for those features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But what if one likes rain? Ji only accepts snow in winter. It should never rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 First call by LWX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 From zero to at least the possibility of seeing snow materializing in last 48 is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Other may disagree but I strongly believe the euro will handle the ivt feature the best. Shorter leads with superior resolution and skill should have the most accuracy. The coastal is likely to almost certainly be all rain. The ivt feature is what's dividing the coastal and cold air. I don't see much chance for the coastal to do anything but rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Other may disagree but I strongly believe the euro will handle the ivt feature the best. Shorter leads with superior resolution and skill should have the most accuracy. The coastal is likely to almost certainly be all rain. The ivt feature is what's dividing the coastal and cold air. I don't see much chance for the coastal to do anything but rain at this point. Never really felt that there was much of a chance with seeing snow from the coastal. The same changes we needed to see to bring that close enough to impact our region also argued that the cold air would be delayed. As far as the IVT you are probably right, the Euro is probably best to handle that feature out of the globals until we get within 24 hrs then I might lean on the mesos a little more. But I am with @C.A.P.E. on this. It will probably end up to our north in the favored locals where we always see it set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 EURO has the IVT west of D.C., sets up around Winchester. Gets everyone .5" or so, more out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Euro still tracks the ivt through the area but best precip and potential snowfall (1-2") is in the western zones. Feeling pretty good that we'll all see a period of snow but borderline temps and mid day timing will temper potential. These types of events often have mini jacks so it's very possible for someone in the sub to walk away with a respectable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Only two EPS members completely shut us out on this one. Odds good we see something. Plenty of 1-2"ers in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Because the maps I want aren't always available on public web sites, I've recently started looking for ways to generate my own. I found panoply (https://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/panoply/), which lets you make your own maps from GRIB files. So this is my first test using panoply. I've often wished we had a better short-range ensemble than the SREFs. There is an RGEM ensemble (REPS), but I don't know of any site other than meteocentre that shows it. And meteocentre's output isn't very useful (e.g. there's no accumulation data). I don't know how good the RGEM ensemble is, but from what I've seen its members are generally more realistic than many of the SREF members. I just downloaded some REPS GRIB files and generated a mean-snowfall qpf map for the upcoming event. It's not quite in range yet (some members are still snowing near the end), and this map isn't terribly exciting, but I thought I'd share because I've always wanted to see one of these, and I suspect I'll be making more in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, cae said: Because the maps I want aren't always available on public web sites, I've recently started looking for ways to generate my own. I found panoply (https://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/panoply/), which lets you make your own maps from GRIB files. So this is my first test using panoply. I've often wish we had a better short-range ensemble than the SREFs. There is an RGEM ensemble (REPS), but I don't know of any site other than meteocentre that shows it. And meteocentre's output isn't very useful (e.g. there's no accumulation data). I don't know how good the RGEM ensemble is, but from what I've seen its members are generally more realistic than many of the SREF members. I just downloaded some REPS GRIB files and generated a mean-snowfall qpf map for the upcoming event. It's not quite in range yet (some members are still snowing near the end), and this map isn't terribly exciting, but I thought I'd share because I've always wanted to see one of these, and I suspect I'll be making more in the future. I tried Panoply briefly and didn't get very far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 in SREFS WE TRUST. much higher chance of 1 inch this run. 1 inch will make this the biggest snow of the season for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 nam has second wave more organized this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: nam has second wave more organized this run. Yeah it's not that far off from being a solid 1-2 for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I thought the 3k nam looked good. Warming up to the idea of a small but vigorous ivt. H5 looks pretty good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Icon is bit on its own with enhanced precip on this panel but I would think it would be snow for some areas. Surface is mid 30'S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 The GFS is more generous with the snow. You could tell it was coming as the SW was much cleaner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 We hug the happy hour. Would be a nice little hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Nice decent little event on Tuesday morning. Legit advisory level event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2018 Author Share Posted January 27, 2018 ULL delivers to everyone for happy hour. That’s probably the best look I’ve seen as it’s subforum wide. This is huggable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: ULL delivers to everyone for happy hour. That’s probably the best look I’ve seen as it’s subforum wide. This is huggable. Yeah all the models giving that second wave alot of love. and nearing 48 hours so will be able to lock it in soon. final answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ULL delivers to everyone for happy hour. That’s probably the best look I’ve seen as it’s subforum wide. This is huggable. It's straight up Christmas in Feb. Lol. These types of events can be fun. Super small so luck is big in getting under them. Someone could do half decent depending on best dynamics. UL energy almost always has a surprise or 2 embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's straight up Christmas in Feb. Lol. These types of events can be fun. Super small so luck is big in getting under them. Someone could do half decent depending on best dynamics. UL energy almost always has a surprise or 2 embedded. Right now it is turning out to be better than Feb 2/3 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2018 Author Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Right now it is turning out to be better than Feb 2/3 event Hug the GFS for Tuesday and the euro for Friday. Easy. You new to this game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hug the GFS for Tuesday and the euro for Friday. Easy. You new to this game? RGEM extended runs a band of mod/heavy snow through the region with the IVT. I'm liking these trends today. If this holds, the euro picked up on it pretty far out in time compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM extended runs a band of mod/heavy snow through the region with the IVT. I'm liking these trends today. If this holds, the euro picked up on it pretty far out in time compared to other guidance. That's the 12z GGEM. (That site is confusing.) I mention this because the extended 18z RGEM gives me a little more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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