• Member Statistics

    15,844
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NEILwxbo
    Newest Member
    NEILwxbo
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
BullCityWx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

nice event modeled west of the blue ridge. Not a far drive. 

You should setup shop in Johnson City man. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

You should setup shop in Johnson City man. 

Shift the euro 3 counties west and millions of people (Charlotte, Winston, Greensboro) are in the light snow possibilities. It's only Saturday and the slightest change could lead to many people scoring that really haven't done well this winter. Close call at this stage IMO. Not trending in the right direction, but far from a cave of disappointment. GFS would about give some of Wilkes 1" maybe more if it trends wetter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting through 72 hours how the event west of the blue ridge differs so much on the euro and gfs. I like my chances with the cold in place with moisture trying to cross versus rain/wind trying to cross the blue ridge. Doubt it trends wetter, but man if it did, would be nice 1-2" all snow north of i40. Currently only expecting flurries. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Poimen said:

We've gone from 7" on the EURO to .4" in 24 hours. 

Euro hasn’t done well this winter with our events. The UK and CMC have been a bit better and even the GFS has done okay. The setup favors snow east of 95 for NC. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Euro is spitting hundredths where as most of us are looking for something in the tenths. 

East of 95 it’s .1 to .3 qpf so a solid 1-3” snow and possibly higher with better ratios. Models seem to agree on .1 in qpf if you average them together. UK and the Euro are the wettest two with up to .3 in places. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RAH Sat. afternoon:

Srong jet dynamics and deep layer frontogenesis accompanying the 
upper jet/front and related low level frontal zone should be 
sufficient to support at least a light precipitation event over cntl 
NC Tue night-Wed. That precipitation would likely fall in the form 
of light rain or rain mixed with snow early Tue night, since 
temperatures will have warmed considerably, into the upr 40s to lwr 
50s for most Tue afternoon; and the models are typically too quick 
in surging cold air masses east of the cntl Appalachians of VA/NC. 
However, partial thickness values and boundary layer temperatures 
are both forecast to become supportive of a west to east changeover 
to snow late Tue night into Wednesday. If the trough aloft is weaker 
and more positively-tilted as it approaches NC, then a light rain, 
to inconsequential snow event would result.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

GFS would about give some of Wilkes 1" maybe more if it trends wetter. 

One can only hope. Hard to get a Gulf tap though with a 500mb trough cutting through the northern extent of the Cumberland Plateau.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH Sat. afternoon:

Srong jet dynamics and deep layer frontogenesis accompanying the 
upper jet/front and related low level frontal zone should be 
sufficient to support at least a light precipitation event over cntl 
NC Tue night-Wed. That precipitation would likely fall in the form 
of light rain or rain mixed with snow early Tue night, since 
temperatures will have warmed considerably, into the upr 40s to lwr 
50s for most Tue afternoon; and the models are typically too quick 
in surging cold air masses east of the cntl Appalachians of VA/NC. 
However, partial thickness values and boundary layer temperatures 
are both forecast to become supportive of a west to east changeover 
to snow late Tue night into Wednesday. If the trough aloft is weaker 
and more positively-tilted as it approaches NC, then a light rain, 
to inconsequential snow event would result.  

This is the kiss of death for me.  I learned my lesson last January.  The influx of cold air will be slower than modeled (see Cold Rain's essay).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

You sure that RAH discussion has been modified?  Sounds very similar to the one this morning.

Sounds the same as this morning. Maybe they had nothing to update.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This makes me want to go old school and walk outside the day of the potential event and let my chickens (if I had any) tell me what it is gonna do, but it is way more fun reading the threads.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk



My chickens eat like the world is ending every day. But I’ll Ask them what’s up with the system mid week.


.
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

18z NAM is even more sharper than it's 12z run. At hour 84 it has this (which is better than the GFS):

 

aaaa.png

Yeah it's a decent look all things considered, it may even look similar to past EURO runs. Of course, we need to wait a few more cycles to see if its legit. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Yeah it's a decent look all things considered, it may even look similar to past EURO runs. Of course, we need to wait a few more cycles to see if its legit. 

I was just looking into this. It is very similar to yesterday’s 12z euro upper levels. This euro run dropped 6+ NE of Charlotte 9D55D2D5-37B1-4CCB-A8A1-B44D24F08B71.thumb.png.2efdbdf4977405d0bfbb88f5d8d0116a.png

A5EA5D32-1D7A-4EA1-BA16-A0FD70EBF11C.thumb.png.b4fa43d0a04c8fb565b9a8fed45f1484.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Lol! When the extended/extrapolated NAM is your only hope...... hit the lights

Except for the last event we had.  Need to get within 72.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

You sure that RAH discussion has been modified?  Sounds very similar to the one this morning.

Well they did change "inconsequential flake event" to "inconsequential snow event" :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.