CAPE Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I still believe we need a substantial thaw (as in 10-14 days) to clear the table. If not, we're going to need the atmosphere to act differently with the same base state. It can happen, but I prefer an impressive thaw first. Jmho. I say get the cold back asap(why waste prime climo?), and get back on the horse. Hope for some slight variations in the features- heck maybe even a little -NAO action at times- and the outcome could end up just a bit more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, mappy said: also https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow&date=20170314&option=snow Manchester = 7" Berryville = 3.4" OK, you made me go dig it up. Us westerners have been left out in the cold since that event -- don't you dare go trying to retroactively steal past snow from us...it's all we have! On 3/14/2017 at 6:39 PM, psuhoffman said: I measured 4" of snow last night before going to sleep then cleared off the area I measure, a sheltered area at the corner of my pool deck. Then this morning there was another 3.5" most of which was sleet. This afternoon another 3" has accumulated from the wrap around snow showers. So that is 10.5 from the 3 separate measurements, however there was never a snow depth over 9" due to the sleet compacting the snow under and the general compacting that continues. But its about the thickest 9". Its still snowing pretty good from this thin band that's sitting over me, maybe I can tack on another inch. It was a bit of a letdown after forecasts were for 12-18". But I can't complain compared to what happened just south of me. Really sucks this didnt work out better. I wonder how much all that warm water in the gulf and off the east coast contributed to the extra surge of the warm layer and the last minute adjustments west with the track. In the end perhaps the timing was just off. The vort Sunday was 24 hours too soon and the vort tuesday was 12 hours too late with the blocking breaking down and the 50/50 vacating. On 3/14/2017 at 7:39 AM, clskinsfan said: First measurement 7.3 inches on my snow board. Wont have accurate measurements with this storm as I never wiped it. Winds starting to get pretty gusty now as well. 27/27 light snow. On 3/14/2017 at 8:37 AM, losetoa6 said: Just changed back to moderate snow. Measured 9.5". Mix since 4am. On 3/14/2017 at 9:17 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Measurement with evidence. Haven't been on the board since the start. Hope all got a decent event. On 3/15/2017 at 10:36 AM, North Balti Zen said: Does anyone have the quick cliff's notes for the what the airports tallied for the storm? ETA - found it, I think: 1.7 DCA 2.2 BWI 5.6 Dulles On 3/14/2017 at 10:22 AM, wxtrix said: 7.0", all snow. it was awesome to finally get a decent storm this winter, and even more awesome that a March snow quickly melts so i can get back into my flower beds. IMBY: See: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 51 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: My gas bill was $12 last month Yeah my first oil fill up was $489 dollars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I say get the cold back asap(why waste prime climo?), and get back on the horse. Hope for some slight variations in the features- heck maybe even a little -NAO action at times- and the outcome could end up just a bit more favorable. x2 there are subtle changes in domain space/wavelength/timing that can get things better (or worse). I agree, lets get the cold back and see how we can make the 2nd round better than the first. I'd say we cant be that unlucky 2x in the same winter...but i know better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: x2 there are subtle changes in domain space/wavelength/timing that can get things better (or worse). I agree, lets get the cold back and see how we can make the 2nd round better than the first. I'd say we cant be that unlucky 2x in the same winter...but i know better than that. My post was mainly in jest. Keep shutout patterns to a minimum and let chips fall. I mean yea, I want a +pna/-ao/-nao/juiced STJ too but I'll hold my breath there and keep adding up 1" snowfalls until I hit 25% of climo and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My post was mainly in jest. Keep shutout patterns to a minimum and let chips fall. I mean yea, I want a +pna/-ao/-nao/juiced STJ too but I'll hold my breath there and keep adding up 1" snowfalls until I hit 25% of climo and be happy. aiming high are ya? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: aiming high are ya? lol Once I hit 25% we can start talking 50% in late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: x2 there are subtle changes in domain space/wavelength/timing that can get things better (or worse). I agree, lets get the cold back and see how we can make the 2nd round better than the first. I'd say we cant be that unlucky 2x in the same winter...but i know better than that. Yeah most of us here know very well that even with a great looking pattern on paper, we need some amount of luck to get production. Last week's event could have been different enough to make most in our region happy with some relatively modest tweaks in the interaction between the ns and ss energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 There are still small patches of white from the snows the last couple of weeks. Will be sad to see them go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My post was mainly in jest. Keep shutout patterns to a minimum and let chips fall. I mean yea, I want a +pna/-ao/-nao/juiced STJ too but I'll hold my breath there and keep adding up 1" snowfalls until I hit 25% of climo and be happy. lol....I figured... In my simple mind, without the base state of cold (or cold close), nothing really matters for what we are all in search of. The most beautiful looking pattern/storm doesnt matter if its raining IMBY...and snowing 75 miles north of me. I'm a big boy and know that part comes with the territory, but cold is requisit number 1 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 @MountainGeek The link Mappy posted looks like an early PNS that didn't reflect final storm totals. My report of 4.0" that shows there was from 3:30 a.m. I think the Berryville report was from around that time also. (Good to know some other weenie besides me is up measuring and reporting snow in the middle of the night.) At 7:00 a.m., I reported 7" to Cocorahs and another inch after 7:00 a.m. for a storm total of 8". Williamsport, MD just across the river from me also had an 8.2" which seems to corroborate my measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: lol....I figured... In my simple mind, without the base state of cold (or cold close), nothing really matters for what we are all in search of. The most beautiful looking pattern/storm doesnt matter if its raining IMBY...and snowing 75 miles north of me. I'm a big boy and know that part comes with the territory, but cold is requisit number 1 for me. The halfway point of met winter is at reasonable range to make a couple assumptions and go with persistence. Good snow storms aren't going to come easy along the coast. The Delmarva is a statistical anomaly that we often see set up "somewhere" during below average winters in the MA/SE. The main theme has been crappy setups to combine decent precip and cold. I do believe that can easily change as we move through the second half but for the near term (inside of 2 weeks) I expect nothing to come easy, have advance warning, or impress anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: @MountainGeek The link Mappy posted looks like an early PNS that didn't reflect final storm totals. My report of 4.0" that shows there was from 3:30 a.m. I think the Berryville report was from around that time also. (Good to know some other weenie besides me is up measuring and reporting snow in the middle of the night.) At 7:00 a.m., I reported 7" to Cocorahs and another inch after 7:00 a.m. for a storm total of 8". Williamsport, MD just across the river from me also had an 8.2" which seems to corroborate my measurements. not to go too far off topic -- but its weird how LWX doesn't have a final PNS for that day available. my link is what shows up for 3/14, which clearly isn't the final version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, WVclimo said: @MountainGeek The link Mappy posted looks like an early PNS that didn't reflect final storm totals. My report of 4.0" that shows there was from 3:30 a.m. I think the Berryville report was from around that time also. (Good to know some other weenie besides me is up measuring and reporting snow in the middle of the night.) At 7:00 a.m., I reported 7" to Cocorahs and another inch after 7:00 a.m. for a storm total of 8". Williamsport, MD across the river also had an 8.2" which seems to corroborate my records. I think Ji's latest implosion gave Mappy the idea to team up with WxWatcher007 to see if they could score some early reapings from the western sector by retroactively "disappearing" past snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: not to go too far off topic -- but its weird how LWX doesn't have a final PNS for that day available. my link is what shows up for 3/14, which clearly isn't the final version. Yeah, I searched around for that after seeing the link you sent. No luck. I did find where I emailed them after 8:00 a.m. with my final tally. Guess they had their hands full that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: I think Ji's latest implosion gave Mappy the idea to team up with WxWatcher007 to see if they could score some early reapings from the western sector by retroactively "disappearing" past snows. I would NEVER do that. .... he's paying me to do so. the reaper. shh. 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: Yeah, I searched around for that after seeing the link you sent. No luck. I did find where I emailed them after 8:00 a.m. with my final tally. Guess they had their hands full that day. Ill have to go back to the thread to see what I had that day. Probably warning level, but I got a lot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, csnavywx said: Looking better and better for some elevated thunderstorms starting Thursday night. Might even get some surface-based stuff Fri evening or overnight. I don't see any real CAPE though for surface based storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The halfway point of met winter is at reasonable range to make a couple assumptions and go with persistence. Good snow storms aren't going to come easy along the coast. The Delmarva is a statistical anomaly that we often see set up "somewhere" during below average winters in the MA/SE. The main theme has been crappy setups to combine decent precip and cold. I do believe that can easily change as we move through the second half but for the near term (inside of 2 weeks) I expect nothing to come easy, have advance warning, or impress anyone. Well stated, and to your points and suggestion of heading back to where we were, we both/all know that the way out can be with overruning and well timed vorts passing through the night. It's never REALLY easy down here in peidmont land, and going into this winter, many were less than impressed w/ potential. While we may struggle for good snows to materialize, so far, it surely t wasnt for lack of cold, like last years ratter. I'll take this ten fold over what we had last year....but while that still doesnt mean a snow globe IMBY. I get that. still feels like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 How’s everyone doing today? Feeling good that snow is on the way? The last thing I read was Jeb promising lots of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I’m not gonna quote all the above , and wasn’t trying to minimize the snow western areas got - but I thought I was clear that the last area wide warning criteria event goes back two years. Beaches have scored, Western areas last March, southern and northern areas in our region, but not all of us. More specifically , not the beltways. It has been two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Regarding the march storm last year. I ended up with 9" of solid crud but measures 10.5" over 3 6hr periods. But I am on a ridge north of the town of Manchester by a bit right along the PA border. The gradient was tight with that storm. Just south of me there was a noticeable drop off every mile in snow depth. And going north to family in PA after there was an equally quick increase to my north. If that coop was south of town especially it would fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Regarding the march storm last year. I ended up with 9" of solid crud but measures 10.5" over 3 6hr periods. But I am on a ridge north of the town of Manchester by a bit right along the PA border. The gradient was tight with that storm. Just south of me there was a noticeable drop off every mile in snow depth. And going north to family in PA after there was an equally quick increase to my north. If that coop was south of town especially it would fit. There was a great lesson embedded in that storm too. The tight to the coast track and cold midlevels on some guidance (nam/rgem/gfs/euro) should have had more caution. Everyone tossed the ukie with the 850 line blasting all the way to FDK but that's exactly what happened. Sleet came much earlier than consensus but it shouldn't have been as unexpected as it was. Another thing about that storm was snow growth sucked during the WAA piece. In general, snow growth and ratios almost always come in below expectations during WAA parts of storm. We may "average" 10:1 over time but more often than not we have sub 10:1. I'll only get excited for ratios over 10:1 during pivots, ULL passes, and CCB parts of coastals. Juiced clippers can do it too but they are often overdone with QPF so higher ratios still under perform with accum totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 so the euro went way east..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Ji said: so the euro went way east..... No nearly enough though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: so the euro went way east..... Gave MD some trailing snow at 108. woo flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: so the euro went way east..... Looks like a big hit in AL/MS/TN/IN now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It would be comical if everything goes really east and gives eastern shore and ORF another win. imagine the posts for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like a big hit in AL/MS/TN/IN now. all snow towns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It would be comical if everything goes really east and gives eastern shore and ORF another win. imagine the posts for that one. That would reap me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: That would reap me That would reap everyone, except for Jeb of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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