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H2O

JAN 4th Coastal

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Looking at this composite radar loop vs qpf totals, does that mean it's running into dry air near the surface?

QhbF5WE.gif

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats a large storm to get kicked that far east so quickly. Nam3k looking good so far lol

it's just the lack of a phase.  you can see the benefits of the phase as it gets to new england.  still pretty interesting considering we still have 24 hrs left of trends in either direction.  i can picture this being like a hurricane where the western extent isn't nearly as impactful without a phase of sorts.

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Gets a little stupid with the deepening rate starting around tau 30 though. Still suffering a bit with diabatic/latent-heat driven feedback issues if I had to guess. Important changes in the upper levels through that time, however. Definitely pulls the powerhouse elevated WAA in closer to the coast, to the point of mixing in sleet at ORF/LFI.

One of the best things from the run was it goes to rain in VA beach and cape cod. Those are musts. We're not getting snow if Va beach stays all snow. That would be very rare. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

the NAM3k went west about 300 miles lol and still barely give us snow

966 50 miles off of obx and flurries heh

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this is maddening..973 practically touching the NC coast and we have clouds.....other winters, you a 998 in the same position and we are getting heavy snow

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_31.png

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Convection...

That and the NS s/w starts kicking it out to sea. The dprog/dt from the last run shows just how important slowing down that northern wave is. Another bump or two west and we're talking more serious snows into the eastern metro. As it is, if you're near the bay, this run is pretty darn good.

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963 pretty close.  It should be a straight blizzard here.  It’s not but Jesus what do we have to do.  How much further west

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like what both nams did through 24 hours in the upperlevels. If we're going to get anything on the edge, that was a good start. 

Time....running out

If the rest of the models start off with similar changes to the Nam,  we could see a better result. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the NAM3k went west about 300 miles lol and still barely give us snow

The surface track isn't our biggest problem anymore. It's the way the system interacts with the northern stream low. They aren't phasing in time for us instead the circulation around the lakes low is messing with the moisture transport into our area. Put a high there and we would be looking at a nice event here. It's the same reason we get that super compact ccb with developing miller b storms that screw us over when the primary is west of us. Only this time it's a miller a but having a northern steam system to our northwest mutes it in the same way. Have to hope models are wrong about that. Some runs were having the trough interact in a way that was a capture more then a kicker and pulled moisture north up the trough. That was another way. It's a delicate interaction but most runs now have it an unfavorable one for us. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. d013e7c7836f31d1049dab3a61cc5aa5.jpg

Guess where that 2” ball is emoji4.png

Wes would like this run a lot

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You guys hear me talk about "no man's land" and that's what happens between 2 unphased pieces of upper level energy. There's always an area of subsidence and dry air between them. This inhibits lift and precipitation. Csnavywx described it perfectly. If that shifts west just a little more it's going to work much better here. It's not impossible. The trend has been to back up that dead spot as the storm bullies its way north. It's a boxing match. 

Both nams tried to set up a band or 2 west of the bay. 

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I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. d013e7c7836f31d1049dab3a61cc5aa5.jpg&key=623345720f7d781055d65b9c3bd0c380e60473fbfa3a381d7c499d5189a12d50

Guess where that 2” ball is


19” for Norfolk tho


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. d013e7c7836f31d1049dab3a61cc5aa5.jpg

Guess where that 2” ball is emoji4.png

It's the 3km NAM.  The only thing that will verify is the Brookhaven to Tolland to ORH to concord deathband,  because it always does.

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Last 2 3k NAM runs:

nam3km_asnow_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.f97cb2e0472d0b09c3e117b71cb2f123.gif

A little inconsistent :lol:. Good trend though. Too bad it's pretty tough to even get precip past I-95 given this setup. 

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Make sure to use the Ferrier SLR product from TropicalTidbits. It's superior over a straight 10:1 SLR as it takes into account riming and mixing. It's also capped at 10:1, which prevents the the totals from being artificially inflated by high-biased SLR ratios on the backside of a system.

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With all the caveats that this is one run of one model that doesn’t have a great track record - Thursday morning’s commute would be a mess here.  New snow, even if just an inch, with 40mph gusts would be enough to really screw up the roads.

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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. d013e7c7836f31d1049dab3a61cc5aa5.jpg

Guess where that 2” ball is emoji4.png

That tells the story. The heavy snow is coming due north at us then turns east. That's the storm hitting the northern stream. If they're not phasing we need the northern stream to be slower to let this thing bull rush another 50-75 miles north before that interaction takes place. 

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

With all the caveats that this is one run of one model that doesn’t have a great track record - Thursday morning’s commute would be a mess here.  New snow, even if just an inch, with 40mph gusts would be enough to really screw up the roads.

Low temps too. Snow falls in the low 20s (if it falls). We all know what happened during the Jan 20th inch of snow during the afternoon commute. Probably fell at a bit colder temperatures though.

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Last 2 3k NAM runs:

nam3km_asnow_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.f97cb2e0472d0b09c3e117b71cb2f123.gif

A little inconsistent :lol:. Good trend though. Too bad it's pretty tough to even get precip past I-95 given this setup. 

I live 19 miles west of 95..so it’s past 95

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