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JAN 4th Coastal


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5 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Does the 9:00 NAM Trump GFS at this stage 24 hours out?

No, not even close. The NAM is not good at all with developing coastal storms. Especially big ones like this. IMHO- the NAM won't really be in its wheelhouse (whatever that is) until 12 hour leads. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

If then. I hope we see the NAM tuck west with the precip, which would herald additional ticks west on the globals. Globals are still the way to go. I see in the NE forum that they're doing recon out for this one. Can't remember the last time I've heard that for a winter event. 

Mixing tropical and winter is making me feel all kinds of tingly. 

Seeing a good NAM run is always good of course. But the second the nam run is over we're waiting for confirmation with the globals. lol. 

We are due for a good nam'ing. If we don't get at least one fantasy nam run I'll be very disappointed in the NAM

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19 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Does the 9:00 NAM Trump GFS at this stage 24 hours out?

Do you mean the 00z NAM vs the 18z GFS?  On average, skill goes up pretty quickly as leads shorten, even if the model itself isn't as good.

Here, I have no idea which model has the best handle on this storm.  They're all giving us hints (of varying quality), but we still need to put it all together.  It can be frustrating, but overly relying on any one model can lead to bad forecasts.

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