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jburns

2018 Banter Thread

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4 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

While reading the main tropical thread, I have to remind myself that this board is primarily comprised of professional mets (5%), amateurs with a decent command of the subject (50%), quite lurkers who seek to learn (25%), and morons (20%).  :rolleyes:

That moron % might be a bit conservative.

To be honest, I'm enjoying reading the SE Florence thread more than the 'main' one. (although I am following both)

 

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9 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

That moron % might be a bit conservative.

To be honest, I'm enjoying reading the SE Florence thread more than the 'main' one. (although I am following both)

 

I have to remember take most of what I read on here with a grain of salt.  Many (not all) have basically no idea what they’re talking about and try to hide their wishcasting within “trends” that they’re “seeing”.  Cracks me up.

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Town of Emerald Isle posted this to their FB page.

 

Ok, here is the late evening update.

 

1. Florence is now at Cat 4 which is no secret, but latest data from earlier in the evening show a potential eye wall replacement or the eye is not fully enclosed I(see the animated satellite imagery below)  This means intensity beyond a Cat 4 is unlikely in immediate future, but further strengthening could occur once the eye wall has replaced itself or has fully enclosed.  Winds right now are at 139 mph w/ gusts up to 166 mph.  Also note that we feel it can intensify  to a Cat 5 before it reaches the coast, but we do expect some land interaction to help weakening back to Cat 4 (if you are in to splitting hairs).  The storm is moving W/NW at 12 mph and the track has not changed (see WeatherOps official track below).

 

2. The track has not changed and even the GFS who was the most northerly outlier has come back into agreement, so there is a very, very strong possibility that the track shown today will not differ from much.   Not unless all the models change at the same time which is rare but can happen.  I would discount that in your decision making on leaving or staying and where to go. 

 

3. The timing of the storm will be right off the immediate Cape Fear coastline by Wilmington by Thursday morning, then the tropical storm force winds will start to move into the area by 9am or 10am on Thursday morning.  Then up the coast to Onslow, and Carteret counties by 12-noon.  

 

Overall the core or eye wall of the storm should make landfall sometime late Thursday night, then slow down around Fayetteville/ Sand Hills area to arrive by Friday afternoon, then up towards Raleigh and Sanford area to arrive by Saturday afternoon where it is expected to stall then potentially retrograde east back towards coastal NC, but we aren't sure what happens after this.  This is a zany forecast to say the least. But regardless of where the center of the storm goes and when, most of central , southern central and eastern/ se NC will experience anywhere from 15" to 25" of rain which will ultimately cause catastrophic, if not, historical flooding.  If you live in a flood prone area from any previous hurricane in North Carolina, please make preparations to evacuate if ordered or ask to leave by local officials.  I cannot stress how serious this could be. 

 

If you aren't sure you live in a flood plain or have a risk of flood in or near your property, you can go to https://fris.nc.gov/fris/Home.aspx?ST=NC  and type in your address to get the appropriate information.

 

If you live on the immediate water or water is only a few blocks away, please leave when you can.  A strong Cat 4 storm can push anywhere from 9-14 storm surge into the land.  Combine storm surge with a house that is being battered by 120-140 mph winds for several hours, you need to leave without thinking too much about it. 

 

As the forecast stands this evening, Wilmington up into Hampstead and Topsail are going to get the very worst of the storm. If you live in those areas, unless you live in a sturdy brick or steel structure and are above flood plain and away from storm surge, I recommend listening to local officials if and when they being to issue evacuations. Rich expects most of my hometown family and friends in near Swansboro, Jax, EI and even over to MH City to see very bad conditions as you will be on the N/NE side of the storm which has the high winds and storm surges associated with a hurricane.  Probably looking at 120 mph winds that fetch from the E/SE, then due east. 

 

Folks located/living north of New Bern are primarily out of the heavy winds (just tropical storm force for you), HOWEVER, these are the areas that could see catastrophic flooding as the insane amount of rain that will fall will flow into the Neuse, Tar, Pamlico, and other rivers, and they will experience catastrophic flooding

 

Regarding flooding, if the storm stalls over central NC and retrogrades back towards the east, the end result could be anywhere from 15" to 30" of rain, so if you live in Central and Eastern NC and flooded during any named storms in the past 100 years or so, then i would listen to officials and evacuate when ordered or asked voluntarily.

 

That's really it for now.  As I'm well aware, everyone has heard enough about this storm by now, so you should have all the information you need to make a decision based on your situation. 

 

This is shaping up to be a historical storm for us here in North Carolina and possibly northern coastal SC....stronger than Hugo, Fran, Floyd, Bertha, Matthew, Hazel, Izabel, and all before  or after them on record...meaning this will be strongest on record for our area.

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3 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

Well we had good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for about 1 hr. 

That euro run was something else. I guess its got a possibility. I work for the state IT GIS Unit and we've been scrambling to get spatial data prepped for Emergency Management. It would still help for folks down in the SE but if the euro is right it'll be just for them.  

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So if we were in Vegas, what kind of odds could I get on predicting that Flo and Isaac will get together for a Fujiwhara dance in 5 days pushing the TD Flo onshore into GA and Isaac loops around into SC?  I can see that happening....maybe.  Lol.  As likely as some of these latest model runs showing Flo tiptoeing down the coast ruining all the salt water taffy in her path!

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The GFS has been insane for the last few days. Stalling off of Hatteras as a cat 5 and looping around while maintaining the same strength to now hitting the coast near Wilmington and then moving south to the Ga/SC border.

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Just now, JoshM said:

I'm 200 miles inland, you'd think I lived on the coast. No water or batteries in the stores around here. I had to laugh when I went in Walmart earlier!

people rushing the stores are noobs.  with this much leadtime you could just amazon prime your needs.

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

people rushing the stores are noobs.  with this much leadtime you could just amazon prime your needs.

I'm not buying anything, I doubt my area will see anything, other than some rain.

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1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

people rushing the stores are noobs.  with this much leadtime you could just amazon prime your needs.

I remember people doing that before Irma and there were instances of Amazon third-party sellers jacking up 24-count cases of bottled water to $40 and $50 per case.

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27 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

I remember people doing that before Irma and there were instances of Amazon third-party sellers jacking up 24-count cases of bottled water to $40 and $50 per case.

Saw a post/photo on Twitter yesterday... 40 pack of Deer Spring water for $38.95 listed on Amazon.

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38 minutes ago, Solak said:

Saw a post/photo on Twitter yesterday... 40 pack of Deer Spring water for $38.95 listed on Amazon.

:facepalm: People still running around here for supplies. Only way the power is going off here is if you don't pay the bill.

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10 minutes ago, JoshM said:

:facepalm: People still running around here for supplies. Only way the power is going off here is if you don't pay the bill.

I can't decide in which Carolina that would be more likely.

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My entire extended family are Wilmington natives. A lot of them are trying to "ride it out," including my 83-year-old grandfather. He lives about five miles inland from Wrightsville Beach. My brother and I are really stressed out trying to figure out a way to convince him to evacuate. Should we care this much whether he evacuates? He has a small, but fairly sturdy house in a neighborhood where most of the big trees have already been felled by previous hurricanes (Fran, Bertha, Floyd). On looking at the projections, it seems that Florence will weaken quite a bit before landfall. If I'm misreading that, let me know, but he says he's lived through strong hurricanes before (see above). He's not particularly stubborn, just feeling the inertia to stay. Any thoughts?

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21 minutes ago, GoAPPS said:

My entire extended family are Wilmington natives. A lot of them are trying to "ride it out," including my 83-year-old grandfather. He lives about five miles inland from Wrightsville Beach. My brother and I are really stressed out trying to figure out a way to convince him to evacuate. Should we care this much whether he evacuates? He has a small, but fairly sturdy house in a neighborhood where most of the big trees have already been felled by previous hurricanes (Fran, Bertha, Floyd). On looking at the projections, it seems that Florence will weaken quite a bit before landfall. If I'm misreading that, let me know, but he says he's lived through strong hurricanes before (see above). He's not particularly stubborn, just feeling the inertia to stay. Any thoughts?

If he's been thru other hurricanes, and he's 5 miles inland, I'd just let him stay. Even with this one being potentially stronger, he already knows what he's getting himself into right?

Also, don't be surprised if some of your family changes their mind at the last moment.

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19 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Florence should be down in Miami by morning.  :rolleyes:  I wasn’t wanting damaging wind and flooding, but I might be lucky to get a sprinkle out of this,

From speaking with family/friends, it sounds like it’s prepmaggeddon up there in the Triad, and if the southward trend continues it’s going to be all for naught, most likely (not that it likely would have been worse than tropical storm force winds in the worst case scenario, anyways).  If such winds do develop, I’d expect tree damage and power outages, but hopefully the ice storms a few years ago already took down a lot of the “low hanging fruit”.  It seemed that flooding was the biggest threat there, but I would imagine a further south track will limit that.

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I think with all of the big event cancellations ranging from races, festivals, school closings and college football games, people are expecting something major in the piedmont of NC and VA. If current trends hold, a lot of people will be angry and in my opinion it will be a blow to meteorology in general because so many people believe the science behind it is little more than a government conspiracy.. I have already seen respectable mets such as Brad Panovich getting ripped on social media due to the track changes.. and it's going to get worse..

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