ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: We've had days and days of modeling and the nam is alone. A super western outlier. Several Mets In here pointed out they think this snows to the canal. Not a cheap shot. Just the truth So sorry to get this thread somewhat OT. In fairness, and defintely understand your concern (which is greatly appreciated), believe he was basing his advice on a track similar to the 06z Nam...where Scituate could conceivably mix, appreciably, and fail to verify blizzard conditions. In all honesty, you both wrote well-meaning posts...and I thank each of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: I remember all 3 failures vividly, esp the 1/87, I remember my Dad saying sometimes it is too cold to snow....in a way he was right January 1987 se New England special occurred the day after the giants Mark bavaro super bowl in Pasadena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: We've had days and days of modeling and the nam is alone. A super western outlier. Several Mets In here pointed out they think this snows to the canal. Not a cheap shot. Just the truth Forgetting the snow for a moment, which seawall community offers the best viewing point for wave action and videoing purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Forgetting the snow for a moment, which seawall community offers the best viewing point for wave action and videoing purposes? Hmm, there's a couple different ones to choose from. I'd defer to some of our South Shore posters but closest to Boston is Nantasket/Hull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For someone visiting from north Carolina I like the north shore because the seawall towns have a real old New England feel. Scituate is wealthier and more generic coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Cut your drive down to 4 hours and sample the coastal blizzard at Virginia Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So far 2/2 on the models coming in west at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: So far 2/2 on the models coming in west at 06z GFS? I'm on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: GFS? I'm on my phone Just coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Trend is our friend... Gfs out to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 06z GFS looks like its going to be a tic or two west as well precip wise anyways slp track is basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Cut your drive down to 4 hours and sample the coastal blizzard at Virginia Beach. Thanks for the advice, Roger! Know that makes more sense, all things being equal, and have considerd that option. OTOH, don't anticipate 12" snowfall totals and suspect a much greater probability of verifying blizzard in SNE...as opposed to the SE VA shoreline. Will make final decision by 11 am...as I hope to be on the road no later than 2 pm. Would arrive on the S shore around 7 am, if so. Thanks again, Roger, for your thoughtful post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That nam may have been the run where you expect it to go apesh*t at some point and then slowly come down to earth. But I’m not surprised at the west move. Hats a congrats mpm and dendrite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think the NAM came that far west because it started to resolve the feedback issue it was having east of Cape Hattaras on previous runs - so it moved the low pressure center west at the surface. I’m betting it jumps a pinch east on the next run as it better resolves where that low pressure center is with all the phasing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 btv has gone 3-8 inches and -40 windchills, just another day in vermont lol haha j/k (sort of)), ......i think its a reasonable forecast at this lead time, keying in on the blowing snow and cold which will continue to be the big story up this way. wish i could drive east of here into the jackpot, but alas work....bah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6z rgem made a huge jump too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Shouldn't really make a big diff precip type wise on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The GFS track hasn’t been awful but my goodness is it atrocious on QPF in so many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS track hasn’t been awful but my goodness is it atrocious on QPF in so many areas rgem looks like a super reasonable look imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: 6z rgem made a huge jump too Made a huge jump how..West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Made a huge jump how..West? It's further tucked in and has a ton more qpf. Nice mid level band over ORH to Tolland and heavy snow anywhere on east. Snow for everyone. It's definitely not NAM crazy, but way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yes I was saying last night the snowfall distribution on some the modeling just seemed off for something like this...so I agree the RGEM does seem much more reasonable as well. Thanks for the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Save a horse. That’s a crushing overeastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briz600 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Several models show the surface getting little warm in my area. Not sure if I will have any mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That's a pretty deep PV anomaly skirting the northern Gulf of Mexico. Some serious subsidence behind it, even at the highest level WV product. And the ozone products confirm there is a little stratospheric air in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Local Boston affiliates ABC/NBC/CBS all have max snowfall around and just South of Boston. General 10-15”+ from all 3. Ch 7 12-16” Ch 5 10-15” Ch 4 12”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Riding Harvey’s numbers for mby. Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 And, dammit! I’m 1mi from my effing blizzard warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And, dammit! I’m 1mi from my effing blizzard warning! No blizzard for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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