CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: The deformation axis on this Euro run is pretty tasty. It's just about maxed from MTP to MLT at 18z Thursday. Cold side of the axis within the best f-gen says congrats dendrite of course. That's a healthy shift west in the forcing from 12z. Was just thinking that based on the H5-H7 look. Can't be too much of a QPF queen here because that's not an awful look for us here in Death Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: The deformation axis on this Euro run is pretty tasty. It's just about maxed from MTP to MLT at 18z Thursday. Cold side of the axis within the best f-gen says congrats dendrite of course. That's a healthy shift west in the forcing from 12z. Thought so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Banding there is more low level convergence imo...mid level death band is west. I'm looking at 7h. It would be best for us versus west. Maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Banding there is more low level convergence imo...mid level death band is west. Yeah the 700 is over ORH to CON back into CT...though the forcing to the east is hellecious...you get some higher stakes out west...could end up under a delicious band but you might miss it and suck on exhaust and fight some drier intrusion from NW ageostrophic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: I'm looking at 7h. It would be best for us versus west. Maybe I'm wrong. I could be mistaken....its late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Was just thinking that based on the H5-H7 look. Can't be too much of a QPF queen here because that's not an awful look for us here in Death Valley. 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thought so. It's one of the better banding signatures I've seen from the coarse as hell 80 km NWS bootleg Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the 700 is over ORH to CON back into CT...though the forcing to the east is hellecious...you get some higher stakes out west...could end up under a delicious band but you might miss it and suck on exhaust and fight some drier intrustion from NW ageostrophic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the 700 is over ORH to CON back into CT...though the forcing to the east is hellecious...you get some higher stakes out west...could end up under a delicious band but you might miss it and suck on exhaust and fight some drier intrusion from NW ageostrophic flow. Thanks...half asleep, so though I may have missed something. Shouldn't be too muh exhaust each of H7, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks...half asleep, so though I may have missed something. Shouldn't be too muh exhaust each of H7, no? Eh, it depends...there was def exhaust west of the ORH band in 2015. It doesn't mean you get a boxing day type disaster, because we aren't anywhere near a dryslot like in that 2010 storm...but it can give you some local minima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the 700 is over ORH to CON back into CT...though the forcing to the east is hellecious...you get some higher stakes out west...could end up under a delicious band but you might miss it and suck on exhaust and fight some drier intrusion from NW ageostrophic flow. I wouldn't take it verbatim, but the 3km NAM shows a double barrel band with some exhaust in between (actually screws PWM a little). I would say that it's a real threat given a hi-res model showing that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, it depends...there was def exhaust west of the ORH band in 2015. It doesn't mean you get a boxing day type disaster, because we aren't anywhere near a dryslot like in that 2010 storm...but it can give you some local minima. I mean east of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I wouldn't take it verbatim, but the 3km NAM shows a double barrel band with some exhaust in between (actually screws PWM a little). I would say that it's a real threat given a hi-res model showing that solution. Exhaust is over ne MA, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exhaust is over ne MA, right? Not so bad there, because you get in on the initial WAA thump. It really impacts the later stages of the storm for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Not so bad there, because you get in on the initial WAA thump. It really impacts the later stages of the storm for NNE. I think I personally would have rather the 12z EURO, but this was expected. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not so bad there, because you get in on the initial WAA thump. It really impacts the later stages of the storm for NNE. I couldn't be more confused.. Looking at euro, i'd guess seeing that circulation I posted would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 One of the old rules of thumb for snowfall forecasting was the heavy snow axis will generally be along the -5C isotherm. Which in the case of the Euro runs along the NNE coast and then down the 495 corridor. Another rule of thumb is just north of the last closed 700 mb height contour. That supports a band of heavy snow farther west than the 850 -5C. But in the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: One of the old rules of thumb for snowfall forecasting was the heavy snow axis will generally be along the -5C isotherm. Which in the case of the Euro runs along the NNE coast and then down the 495 corridor. Another rule of thumb is just north of the last closed 700 mb height contour. That supports a band of heavy snow farther west than the 850 -5C. But in the same general area. I mean, I'd say Ray probably expects worst if 495 is hugging 5c, even I stay right around there at Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh well, staying up for euro ensembles. Literally get out of work in 15 minutes. Been on the clock at my first and second job since 730am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Posted this on Mid-Atl first, but of general interest so ... This is about to explode, current analysis would suggest main low is forming southeast of Miami FL and arctic wave is (can't believe I am typing this) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, snow is about to break out between TLH and GNV. Upper support is massing over AL-wGA, and it's probably going to run right up the coast to Hatteras, try to hang a left, then lurch east-north-east, but not in time to spoil your (Mid-Atl) potential snowfall event. First call 1-3" DCA-IAD 3-5" BWI 8-15" Delmarva 14-22" se VA 2-5" e PA and most of NJ 4-7" NYC 8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH 20-40" Maine, NB 10-15" w NS (my track is based on a blend of Euro, NAM and RGEM and I expect a central pressure of 953 mbs just south of 40/70) 80 mph gusts over much of se MA will lead to considerable damage and storm surges Heavier snow than most are expecting over VT and upstate NY as Lakes low is pulled into circulation and there may be heavy lake effect from Lake Champlain for BTV I also suspect some wild variations locally due to deformation band, subsidence effects, but think most will be inside the 12 to 35 inch outcome spectrum, outer Cape and islands 5-12" due to some mixing Wicked ! (Not really a first call for most of the above, this is what I was thinking 3-4 days ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Through 24, euro ens mean slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Through 42, euro ens mean is west. not sure how it compares to op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Posted this on Mid-Atl first, but of general interest so ... This is about to explode, current analysis would suggest main low is forming southeast of Miami FL and arctic wave is (can't believe I am typing this) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, snow is about to break out between TLH and GNV. Upper support is massing over AL-wGA, and it's probably going to run right up the coast to Hatteras, try to hang a left, then lurch east-north-east, but not in time to spoil your (Mid-Atl) potential snowfall event. First call 1-3" DCA-IAD 3-5" BWI 8-15" Delmarva 14-22" se VA 2-5" e PA and most of NJ 4-7" NYC 8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH 20-40" Maine, NB 10-15" w NS (my track is based on a blend of Euro, NAM and RGEM and I expect a central pressure of 953 mbs just south of 40/70) 80 mph gusts over much of se MA will lead to considerable damage and storm surges Heavier snow than most are expecting over VT and upstate NY as Lakes low is pulled into circulation and there may be heavy lake effect from Lake Champlain for BTV I also suspect some wild variations locally due to deformation band, subsidence effects, but think most will be inside the 12 to 35 inch outcome spectrum, outer Cape and islands 5-12" due to some mixing Wicked ! (Not really a first call for most of the above, this is what I was thinking 3-4 days ago) I am in Rochester. Looking at euro and hammers roc area with half inch qpf. With lake snow. I been here all my life and this stuff is 25 to 30 to 1 Ratios. Plus is giving wind gust to 45mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 euro ensembles paint a similar picture to the euro itself at this point in terms of qpf. good shift from 12z to the west. up to 1.0" liquid or close to it near BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH NWS has their high end at 1/2 your low end for me here in south central NH. I'd be shocked if we hit 15" on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, bobbutts said: NWS has their high end at 1/2 your low end for me here in south central NH. I'd be shocked if we hit 15" on this one. I wouldn't be shocked, but I wouldn't say it's likely either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Posted this on Mid-Atl first, but of general interest so ... 8-15" Delmarva 14-22" se VA 2-5" e PA and most of NJ 4-7" NYC 8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH 20-40" Maine, NB Wicked ! That's an All-Timer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This storm has extremely high bust potential on many fronts, reminding me of the many snow events of the 1980s which most of you are too young to remember. Three in particular come to mind. January 1987. February 1987. February 1989. All three events trended farther east. Lots of busted forecasts. This was back when tv news was king and local tv anchors and mets were huge stars. February 1987 spared most of New England but slammed cape cod with one of its worst blizzards on record. 1989 spared most of the eastern seaboard despite initial, ominous warnings. Huge model failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Close analog 25-Jan-00-3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 January 25 trended way west at the eleventh hour and its best remembered for dumping over a foot of surprise snow on dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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