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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

For a model that everyone thought was a door mat, It looks like it made a lot of new friends today........lol

It’s more like the obliterated drunk on the train at the end of the night. Good for some entertainment on the way home, but you’re not going to hang out the next day. 

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Too be honest I don't think this type of solution can be completely ruled out. Given how intense this system is modeled to become and all the interactions there could be some merit to this. You have a cross-isobaric flow here on the NAM and there were some that mentioned cross-isobaric factor on social media (talking with someone on fb about this now). If that indeed happened the NAM probably isn't as far off as many believe. As crazy as the NAM can be sometimes its the best model in this type of setup

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7 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

In 18 hours will know which camp had the better solution and you guys can lock on to a track then start wobble watching like we do in hurricane season..enjoy your storm

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Its just not good at our lat with phasing two streams, GFS has performed poorly in the Northeast, Typically last to latch on to the solution at verification.

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Too be honest I don't think this type of solution can be completely ruled out. Given how intense this system is modeled to become and all the interactions there could be some merit to this. You have a cross-isobaric flow here on the NAM and there were some that mentioned cross-isobaric factor on social media (talking with someone on fb about this now). If that indeed happened the NAM probably isn't as far off as many believe. As crazy as the NAM can be sometimes its the best model in this type of setup

I have never seen anything like this...at the risk of hyperbole, I was really trying to articulate that in my blog....I mean, 94mb pressure gradient? Yikes....like, and then James woke up and mom grabbed a bed pan and washed his sheets.

I would have been ashamed to suggest that as possible.

This could do some strange, Dec 23, 1997 like things that are going to just violate a lot of forecasts.

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Its just not good at our lat with phasing two streams, GFS has performed poorly in the Northeast.
We see the gfs driving hurricanes through ridges and we know thats impossible so its solutions are discounted regularly...as long as the 3k nam has a big hit it will have friends the in this thread, lol

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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