HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Went from about 25" imby to 3" from 21z to 00z. Is that the same model as the IBM Thunder Weenie or whatever it was named? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have never seen anything like this...at the risk of hyperbole, I was really trying to articulate that in my blog....I mean, 94mb pressure gradient? Yikes....like, and then James woke up and washed his sheets. I would have been ashamed to suggest that as possible. This could do some strange, Dec 23, 1997 like things that are going to just violate a lot of forecasts. Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: That would give Kevin a rise....put him back into the highest band perhaps. I think you are gonna see a deform band setup from Boston area back down through central or eastern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west. You're a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah RPM is doing the RPM thing, wild swings with each run, here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 more runs of the NAM before onset. It can't get any better than this run for many, but it can get worse, so keep those emotions in check. As bad as the NAM may be, we are closer to its wheelhouse now, so that's a big plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ajisai said: Will businesses usually close with 20 inches OTG in Boston? I'll take the under on 20 for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west. Probably like green mountains I’m thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would sure as hell think so. Harvey wasn’t too sure about it during his live chat. He thought maybe right at the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM looks a little east of 18z through hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. I dropped a 20-bomb on my first call and and thinking long and hard about where I go from here. You don't need a lot of time to get stupid in a system of this ilk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Harvey wasn’t too sure about it during his live chat. He thought maybe right at the coast... I didn't see a huge signal, but the 00z NAM argued near the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: For a model that everyone thought was a door mat, It looks like it made a lot of new friends today........lol Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. Great post. I believe Scott has mentioned the whole shredded dendrites in wind issue is often overblown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west. Like MPM west or HubbDave west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: When is the RGEM available? Its coming out now and it looks like it has ticked east from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ajisai said: Will businesses usually close with 20 inches OTG in Boston? 20” is the new norm there, so its business as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It can't get any better than this run. Not true. I remember it popped 70"+ on one run before Feb '13. Just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Like MPM west or HubbDave west? Esp you, but perhaps out to MPM..at least on the NAM. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah RPM is doing the RPM thing, wild swings with each run, here you go Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Not true. I remember it popped 70"+ on one run before Feb '13. Just wait. Never Forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I dropped a 20-bomb on my first call and and thinking long and hard about where I go from here. You don't need a lot of time to get stupid in a system of this ilk. I can certainly see it up your way. I think the max potential we're looking at in this system if things play right is like 18-24'' with maybe some 26'' totals? Back my way I'm just way too torn to attempt a map. I can see something like 3-6'' or even 12-18'' if it became apparent great banding set up this way. I'm hoping 0z runs will offer a bit more confidence in how to hedge. These systems are just a mess to try and explain to folks...I feel for TV meteorologists in this case b/c they're limited with on air time...luckily there is blogging now and facebook live and things of that nature to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Not true. I remember it popped 70"+ on one run before Feb '13. Just wait. I was LITTERALLY Just talking to someone about the 70"+ Amounts in 2013 to someone 5 minutes ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Never Forget Funniest thing about that to me is it shows my folks' place in Hamden getting a foot, and they were actually closer to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Not true. I remember it popped 70"+ on one run before Feb '13. Just wait. Yet his handle says 78 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Great post. I believe Scott has mentioned the whole shredded dendrites in wind issue is often overblown. Thanks. It's a tough one. It probably is overblown to some extent. Not sure exactly how much research has been done into this but there probably is some sort of threshold in which when winds reach a certain level they can start having an influence on dendrites. I would also think the wind is more likely to rip them apart when you're dealing with the real fluffy snow...the high ratio type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You can count on a feb 13 like band dropping 4-6” hr rates, the fronto stuff shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Thanks. It's a tough one. It probably is overblown to some extent. Not sure exactly how much research has been done into this but there probably is some sort of threshold in which when winds reach a certain level they can start having an influence on dendrites. I would also think the wind is more likely to rip them apart when you're dealing with the real fluffy snow...the high ratio type stuff It's more of the dendrites hitting the ground, smashing, and then being dragged across..thus ruining ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So where is James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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