Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

[weatherwiz]

Just able to see the GFS ensembles and holy crap...just a pounding back west into CT...total pounding.  Would have to think like a good strip of 12-18'' somewhere back through CT

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Just able to see the GFS ensembles and holy crap...just a pounding back west into CT...total pounding.  Would have to think like a good strip of 12-18'' somewhere back through CT

Where can I find the 18GFS ensembles?

[WeathermanB]

I know this was probably already picked up, but 

Heard hurricane hunters recon is going into the storm dubbed "Grayson", because you can get recon missions with hurricane force winter storms right?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Where can I find the 18GFS ensembles?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

There are other places but these are the two I have in my bookmarks 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

BOX's 10% likelihood is pretty anemic for the eastern areas--I'd expect they'd be much higher.  

I'm still thinking 2-4" for my hood.

This could have the type of gradient where you have 2-4" and 20 mi E of you a place like Shutesbury has 4-8". 

[ice1972]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll take Rays snowfall map in a heartbeat!

 

had me in the 8-14 inch zone..we take.

 

also nice write up Ray.

Ya loved that write up.....I believe it was Ray who has said all along wagons west.....that map would reflect that.....

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

There are other places but these are the two I have in my bookmarks 

Thanks

[ice1972]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm working on a blog post/snow map and I almost don't even want to do a snow map right now lol...there's just too many unknowns and the range potential is just too high. There is zero way to really know where the CCB will setup and that doesn't only influence where the jackpot zones are but it also influences who sucks on subsidence for a good amount of time. I'm even uncertain how expansive the precip shield will be...although this point is more due to lack of knowledge. I want to feel like that since this thing is going to be insanely deep that two things will happen; 1) The core of the precip shield is confined closer to the center of the storm and 2) Will precip end up being more bandy...like what happened in Boxing Day in 2009...that too could also introduce areas of subsidence.

Can’t wait to read it.....every storm different....and Fuk Boxing Day....

[codfishsnowman]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just isn't that type of storm.  We've known this for days, not sure why you keep torturing yourself, haha. 

Going to be a fun one to watch for the BOS folks. 

it really only is 100 miles or so though so i think it is reasonable to have hope....I don't understand why this cannot track to just south of Montauk with the right airmass in place....it is like orh to bos become as far away as California

[klw]

15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This could have the type of gradient where you have 2-4" and 20 mi E of you a place like Shutesbury has 4-8". 

So he can have 4" and so can a place 20 miles away?

[Greg]

I wonder how much this storm can wobble west with this really cold air in place and progressive flow. Maybe a few nautical miles but not the 50-100 mile struts we have seen.  I think the goal post are pretty much in place as it looks now unles something huge happens atmosphericaly.

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Ya loved that write up.....I believe it was Ray who has said all along wagons west.....that map would reflect that.....

To bad the wagon's wheels fell off at Hubb's house.

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Busiest dead zone in quite awhile.

Agreed--boring.

 

How were Dr. Mel's maps?  He seemed like a weenie at heart.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

it really only is 100 miles or so though so i think it is reasonable to have hope....I don't understand why this cannot track to just south of Montauk with the right airmass in place....it is like orh to bos become as far away as California

The potential for a surprise is certainly there, I am just very reserved based on what's currently modeled. There will even be screw zones near the CP I'm sure.  You know, 5" differences across town in a place like Taunton or Bridgewater. 

[weatherwiz]

Just pure crushage for parts of NE MA. Nothing better than being into the black shadings on these

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Greg said:

Take a look at what was on the ground and tell me it was like '78 with just about 30" on the ground from the storm alone.  Both had just about 3" to start with yet there was only 19" on ground left for the 2003 storm.  So what happened? Harvey Leonard and Todd Gross verified that it was measured every hour.  Simliar to what some mid-Atlantic people do but shouldn't.

They were getting OES combined with CF stuff for awhile in addition to synoptic stuff. Very high ratio too. BOX radar went out, but WCVB kept showing some pretty heavy bands. I never heard of the measuring every hour, but I know what I had and it was a solid 2'. Have some nice pics too. I agree the 78 reference is over the top, but it was a solid 2' storm in BOS.

[powderfreak]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The potential for a surprise is certainly there, I am just very reserved based on what's currently modeled. There will even be screw zones near the CP I'm sure.  You know, 5" differences across town in a place like Taunton or Bridgewater. 

With the mature low pressure at our latitude...I think the western half of New England will be shredded bands.  So the potential for surprise is there but it will be in narrow bands.  Like one town gets 6-7" (and everyone is like see we said it would snow out west, lol), where some cyclonic band rotates through for hours on end, but the majority is within 2-5" larger scale advisory snows.

Still 36 hours to see changes though.

[klw]

In case anyone was wondering about lowest surface pressures in the area, this site breaks it down by month and has another map to show the dates.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

Lowest January pressures were associated with teh Cleveland bomb of Jan 78.  Maine had a 957 in Feb 76 and 954 in Dec 42,  LI had a 951.6 in 1914.

Obviously it only shows the onland surfacce pressures so not the most applicable here.

 

White Juan hit 959

http://www.novaweather.net/Blizzard_2004/Blizzard_summary.pdf

 

[InstantWeatherMaps]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just pure crushage for parts of NE MA. Nothing better than being into the black shadings on these

There is, and it’s called being into the grey shadings (which part of MA appears to be).

[Greg]

Midnight models will be very interesting to disect.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, InstantWeatherMaps said:

There is, and it’s called being into the grey shadings (which part of MA appears to be).

I wonder what the snowfall rates would be in that if you can get that to go over you?  Maybe 2-3" per Hour rates?

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Shamelessly purloined from Bluewave. Dude's digging up gold.

Uncertainty....

As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the
average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus
this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of
the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are
expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs?
Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing
over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the
downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an
eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward
adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect
data shortly and this will likely help improve model
performance.

 

•  

Nah sbox says sampling don't matter

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Nah sbox says sampling don't matter

You miss my point. 

I said weenies use it as a crutch often. 

[TalcottWx]

Recon flights are a totally different animal. Means the storm means business. 

[tim123]

6 minutes ago, Greg said:

I wonder what the snowfall rates would be in that if you can get that to go over you?  Maybe 2-3" per Hour rates?

Try 4 to 5

[WeatherNurse]

I've been following the uncertainty in the track of this storm via the NWS forecast discussion updates for GYX.  I've generally been a pessimist, but the afternoon update provided a ray of hope that the Whites and Western Maine could get some snow out of this one.  And by "some" I mean a foot+.  I'll take whatever we can get!  Though I imagine most of it will be scoured off the trails with the intense wind setting up behind it.  With forecasted highs on Sat topping out @ -5ºF (and that's for like the town of North Conway), it won't make for very enjoyable skiing/riding a lift.  I hiked the Sherb today just to stay warm and get some skiing in.  Christmas week was brutal!

I've read a few pages back in this thread - seems there are some reasons to feel as though we could see a few more ticks to the west?  GYX calling for a 7" event in my area at this point.  Should I cross my fingers for good news tomorrow night?  

[Hoth]

15 minutes ago, klw said:

In case anyone was wondering about lowest surface pressures in the area, this site breaks it down by month and has another map to show the dates.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

Lowest January pressures were associated with teh Cleveland bomb of Jan 78.  Maine had a 957 in Feb 76 and 954 in Dec 42,  LI had a 951.6 in 1914.

Obviously it only shows the onland surfacce pressures so not the most applicable here.

 

Really random factoid, but that 951 storm in 1914 storm washed away the old golf house on Fishers Island, which had been foolishly built over a beach, and forced the membership to set it back much farther from the water's edge. Anyway, apologies for the digression.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Try 4 to 5

Now that's some heavey rates!

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

You miss my point. 

I said weenies use it as a crutch often. 

It's a very real phenomenon. 

[J Paul Gordon]

5 hours ago, bboughton said:

Not sure if this was posted: 

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this pushed up further for ORH and points west.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Should the Ne ocean enhancement combine with best lift over SE mass, is the RI (snow-hole)watch in effect