OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The gfs has been doing this for like a decade. At least its a standard relatively correctable bias. I'm not sure why we can't build a model that doesnt do this. It has the worst progressive cyclogenesis bias against all the major world models. And getting the high impact stuff right does matter regardless if your 5 day height rmse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: 18Z RGEM at 54. Could u post 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Someone asked for this when it was up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maybe but it’s a POS nonetheless. 48 hr lead time Operational models that cost millions are the best, just another ensemble member geezuz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Could u post 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 950@that latitude is nuts Pretty impressive trends to tremendously deepen this earlier near Carolina's/and delmarva(last 24 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Someone asked for this when it was up Yeah it was me thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Man I am so jealous of you guys right now. You can see run by run each model is just coming around to a major to historic event up there. I probably won't get to chase so enjoy it for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I've only followed guidance for past 12 hours or so, and it's a remarkable storm and trajectory... seems like it should capture and occlude off VA/NC border and be a congrats Mid Atl type storm, but it just keeps deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxBlue said: hat that will go up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think Will said it earlier, we keep seeing corrections further north and west on practically every cycle before the ene kick. I looked back at initialization and the correction begins there, but it eventually ‘fades’ out after 36 hours or so. If we keep these corrections coming at initialization tonight and tomorrow....then I think this comes inside the BM just a bit more before the kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Man let’s lock Reggie. Crushjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: I've only followed guidance for past 12 hours or so, and it's a remarkable storm and trajectory... seems like it should capture and occlude off VA/NC border and be a congrats Mid Atl type storm, but it just keeps deepening. Its too far Offshore at their latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah who is me thanks manYeah who is me thanks man Still drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 33 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yup. Before everyone says the GFS is a POS... the GFS system did what it was supposed to. The ensembles have been steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still drunk? Not a drop, Auto spell ftl, Driving down the road at 80 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Is this one going to be your baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Is this one going to be your baby? Don't kill yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Don't kill yourself I’m stopped at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Harv just went 12"-15+" Plymouth to North shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Harvey is on board, I know things could shift but I trust him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Definitely confident of at least warning snows east of say an ORH-MHT line. Obviously may be a bit better than warning snows inside 128. Still weary of widespread > 12-15'' totals even for E MA given how fast it is moving but the dynamics are damn impressive. Would be an absolute monster if it were just a hair slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If you are going to start with a 12" total why keep it 3" narrow and then say "+" just do 12-18 and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Is this one going to be your baby? I don’t think so, technically falls under short term with the mid shift tonight. But it’s probably all I’ll look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Save a horse, ride the RAP para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Save a horse, ride the RAP para You win the award for getting the least work done today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Would be nice to have the NCAR ensmeble tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, mattm4242 said: Harvey is on board, I know things could shift but I trust him. That’s th best map out to date , though I would edge 6-12” to the west of HFD - CEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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