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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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From a purely pressure perspective, I see multiple models with 955 mb or less by the time if gets close to the BM. when was the last time there was a low that strong in that vicinity? I know sub 960 below our latitude that impact SNE directly are rare. I know there been some bigger bombs farther out to sea.

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6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

It's east.

About the same with regard to SLP. I'm not buying that panel from hr 48 to 54. Everything else was west. The difference was H5 opened back up at that time frame versus 6z. Comparing apples to apples, this run would have been well east with H5 opening up like that if we didnt have the other improvements...

GFS will struggle to resolve that aspect right up into go time. I expect the euro to have a better handle on this, and be west with the other key features...

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