mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 100% agree. This has big amounts into W NE written all over it. These big ones do it everytime . You’d think some of these guys would get it after all these years. Kudos to Scooter for sniffing it out and Will too, and some other Mets for staying with it despite what models showed. Meteorology not modelology. Now lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 There were quite a few that bailed on this. Regardless of what you believe, it still gets tedious agnozing over the damn thing for so long....ugh. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 100% agree. This has big amounts into W NE written all over it. These big ones do it everytime . You’d think some of these guys would get it after all these years. Kudos to Scooter for sniffing it out I think "big" amounts are limited to under 18" anywhere you look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There were quite a few that bailed on this. Regardless of what you believe, it still gets tedious agnozing over the damn thing for so long....ugh. Lol I am still not sure how this will end up, but it has been ultra annoying...I will repeat...this storm sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I think "big" amounts are limited to under 18" anywhere you look. If I get 1/3 of that I will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: I think "big" amounts are limited to under 18" anywhere you look. Yea, there could be some amounts greater, but I wouldn't go there yet...trucking along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I am still not sure how this will end up, but it has been ultra annoying...I will repeat...this storm sucks It hasn't even formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I am still not sure how this will end up, but it has been ultra annoying...I will repeat...this storm sucks It gets like watching paint dry...and its my own fault, admittedly..can't help myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It gets like watching paint dry...and its my own fault, admittedly..can't help myself. ray any clown maps yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, there could be some amounts greater, but I wouldn't go there yet...trucking along. I dunno, that little sucker last winter was in and out faster than this and there were widespread 14-17" reports. This is gonna be juiced and more intense. Jan '11 was a quick hitter too and I pulled 27". We'll see, I suppose. Every system is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think 6-12" at BOS, coast is a good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Does the NAM just use the 32 degree line to determine precip type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Pretty sure I called this a day or two.....just saying . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, CarverWX said: Does the NAM just use the 32 degree line to determine precip type? I don't think any algorithm does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The wheels on the bus go round and round. This bus is leaving the station about quarter of nine. Just my opinion...has the look of a Blizzard written all over it. All know the criteria... NAM 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I didn't sniff anything out...I think we were just saying to.. a) watch these srn interactions.. b don't let the NAM or GFS sway you from swan diving off any object greater than 100' tall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, CarverWX said: Does the NAM just use the 32 degree line to determine precip type? I'd say it's a pretty good approximate based on what I see. I'm not sweating the "radar" representations. It's a cold profile right off the deck so I'd hedge snowier off the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I didn't sniff anything out...I think we were just saying to.. a) watch these srn interactions.. b don't let the NAM or GFS sway you from swan diving off any object greater than 100' tall. Scott, still days away, should I be following GFS now or that is still garbage till 24 hours before event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I think "big" amounts are limited to under 18" anywhere you look. Yeah 16- 20” will be max zone . One along the coast from OES and another farther inland under def zone. Too bad it’s moving fairly swift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 35 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: and Will too, and some other Mets for staying with it despite what models showed. Meteorology not modelology. Now lets see what happens. Yes Will too especially with the idea to not use the globals until day of and use hydrostatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Scott, still days away, should I be following GFS now or that is still garbage till 24 hours before event?Not that you’re asking me but I would follow a blend of the global’s and the meso models. I think the meso’s have a better grasp on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 New to Cape Ann...anyone familiar with the area know how they do with these setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nice moves overnight, we like to see the subtle nw ticks as we approach the 48hr mark. If a rgem/nam solution verified, you can’t stress over qpf on the nw side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, 512high said: Scott, still days away, should I be following GFS now or that is still garbage till 24 hours before event? GFS is getting a clue. Track margins have narrowed pretty significantly. Even the amped GEPS are now offshore with track. 12z today should really hone in on that and we can than start focusing on the other details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes Will too especially with the idea to not use the globals until day of and use hydrostatic I'm definitely going to put some credence into the "juicer" hydrostatic runs starting today. We've seen the Euro and GFS bumping up their output overnight and I think we see it continue today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, 512high said: Scott, still days away, should I be following GFS now or that is still garbage till 24 hours before event? I would not toss any model really. Perhaps the better way of saying this is to not put as much weight into some models. The non-hydrostatic (meso models) as Will said last night are still in the early stages of being used...and have their normal amped up biases. But as we head through the day into the overnight..if they still are near the benchmark and the globals head that way...I might put more stock in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Good work last few pages JC, took you a month to warmup but you’re in mid season form now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm definitely going to put some credence into the "juicer" hydrostatic runs starting today. We've seen the Euro and GFS bumping up their output overnight and I think we see it continue today. With Pwats (from bahamas) being transported, this is a juicy beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 38 minutes ago, Hoth said: I dunno, that little sucker last winter was in and out faster than this and there were widespread 14-17" reports. This is gonna be juiced and more intense. Jan '11 was a quick hitter too and I pulled 27". We'll see, I suppose. Every system is different. Like I said...just not ready to toss those numbers around YET...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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