Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

[mreaves]

18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

But did you actually read what he posted??

I was just joking. I guess my career in comedy is done 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, mreaves said:

I was just joking. I guess my career in comedy is done 

Or my career in detecting sarcasm is done 

[moneypitmike]

I think the NAM's coming in tight. as of 57.

[Hazey]

All good points. Honestly, I think the prospect of being "so close, yet so far" is what has many on edge here.  There will be some palpable rage on here if we are watching a monster entertain the fishes on satellite.

Palpable rage? I think those folks need mental health help if something that they have zero control over triggers them. Good grief.

[JBinStoughton]

Here we go again with looks great then due east. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, JC-CT said:

Hooray. Right back to psychoanalyzing the entire board, maybe in 2018 you can take a look at why you feel the incessant need to do so. I kind of feel dumb now for being genuinely concerned about your wellbeing when you insist on looking down with distain on the majority of us.

No hostility intended...  I'm in that same group and have made that abundantly clear, multiple times ...  You're probably less familiar with my particular brand of sardonic, if at times incisive wit.

But the fact of the matter is, I'm right - sorry.  People contributing and immersing in this niche, they like having snow around ... They like it when it is snowing out the window.  Clearly. However, to anyone sentient (and it doesn't take any sort of pscycho babble whatever to see this...) the whole modeling aspect is a phenomenon unto its self.

It really more than seems there are two phenomenon going on at all times: The weather;  The virtual presentation of the weather. No one realistic and honest would bother trying to argue that "moods" and "tenors" in this public forum of distilled, concentrated enthusiasts ... don't change pretty quickly upon the "favorable" presentation of the latter.  

There is a reason for that?  

The monkey business ?  Lighten up..   

[Hazey]

The nam is a convoluted mess. I really don't see how anyone can't take it seriously. Although I'm sure the weenies in South Carolina want their 2'+ of snow.

[WintersComing]

Just need that steering through to go negative a little sooner


.

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Here we go again with looks great then due east. 

It comes around and hits E NE at the end. 

And that’s about as much as we should analyze the NAM past hour 6. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, Enigma said:

Australian probably phases and never has double barrel look.

ding ding ding

[mahk_webstah]

So if we don't have a double-barreled look, and we get the stronger shortwave and phase, then what happens?   Because if they are the more likely Becauseoutcomes because if those are the more likely occurrences, then perhaps that's what we're looking at. ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

One thing of note on the NAM is the s/w traversing across the GL.  Trend over the last 24hr on the NAM has been to flatten that out.  Because the lead s/w is ahead of the storm down S it is not lower heights over the northeast like it was 24hrs ago.  This allows the storm as modeled on the NAM to come in closer than perhaps other models.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

So if we don't have a double-barreled look, and we get the stronger shortwave and phase, then what happens?   Because if they are the more likely Becauseoutcomes because if those are the more likely occurrences, then perhaps that's what we're looking at. ...

The double barrel look is because of the non phase

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I believe the nam is on to something with the cleaner phase and the mid levels closing off earlier.

This should help the low nearer the coast go to town and be the dominant one initially

 

If you look at height fields along ne and trough positioning at hrs 54-78, looks to me there Will be difficulty getting the initial western dominant low to track even close to a sufficient latitude to impact us, and that while we want that low dominant in the beginning to keep barcolinic  zone close....that we should pray for a dumbbelling of a second more NE low for us to see a warning snow event.

I could be out to lunch but i believe this is what we want given little wiggle room we got.

Hoping heights can be pushed higher from the S. Stream low, and more of us could see something significant 

Also maybe some nice Ocean enhancement for parts of se mass

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The double barrel look is because of the non phase

YYes and what I'm asking is what happens if we get the full phase and no double barrel

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM gives SC a huge hit...wonder if that is mostly sleet/ice

[Hazey]

Next up is the CMC. Won't bother with the GFS as everyone here thinks it's trash and belongs in the dung heap.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

The double-barrel crap is killing it.

mmm... okay, but more precisely, there are two reasons why the 'double-barrel' construct is taking place. 

The first, there is velocity saturation in the total flow, such that the models may be having trouble with wave-space physical interactions. Looking back at other notable subsume/phasing scenarios of yore .. the s-stream interlopes south of a SPV or SPV fragmentation containing very cold mid level air.  This "entices" the n-stream south for lack of better words, ...and down she comes...in total, cyclonic rotation of the s-stream around n-stream starts fusing the total vorticity fields (which is another way of describing "capture")... blah blah the rest is and more importantly ...was history. That whole interaction takes time... Having a southern stream wave zip around the L/W trough so quickly is both not giving this thing the time needed for this total evolution (which is endemic to a flow that's had plaguing velocity problems ...for three years and counting mind us...), but is also related to below...

The second being that the western N/A ridge... combined with the n-stream wave-mechanics et al ... are not as strong as they could be.  A more amped ridge out west would subsequently cause deeper heights in the E, and would in turn tend to 'tip'/bend the flow responsively more S- N along and off the EC...  Among other physics, that would dictate a closer pass, forcing a better collocation in space and time both the best forcing and the baroclinicity.  As is, the former and latter are tipped in the vertical ... not saying it will verifiy that way, but the models have been putting the best low level thickness gradient along or even E of the g-string ... while n-stream related forcing is back closer to the coast. There's going to be forcing associated with the southern stream... but, if the southern stream wave were more S-N turning, those fields would better overlap

Those two combined, in some proportion ... are what's mechanically causing the surface response to be less coherently situated... unless another Met has a different set of reasons that can cogently be demonstrated as more likely the cause ... I'm all ears.   

[512high]

4 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Next up is the CMC. Won't bother with the GFS as everyone here thinks it's trash and belongs in the dung heap.

if GFS is positive news...we all want to hear!

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

YYes and what I'm asking is what happens if we get the full phase and no double barrel

Probably a weak open wave with light upslope snow for powderfreak

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Hazey said:

Next up is the CMC. Won't bother with the GFS as everyone here thinks it's trash and belongs in the dung heap.

If this ends up being a monster hit around here...I'd expect the GFS to show a garbage solution until at least tomorrow. It has choked on almost every single large event here in the past 15-20 years at 3+ days. Theres a few exceptions but I can easily count them on one hand. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

NAM gives SC a huge hit...wonder if that is mostly sleet/ice

Gives Jimmie a nice hit out on the cape too. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Gives Jimmie a nice hit out on the cape too. 

He would deserve it, not us, apparently.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If this ends up being a monster hit around here...I'd expect the GFS to show a garbage solution until at least tomorrow. It has choked on almost every single large event here in the past 15-20 years at 3+ days. Theres a few exceptions but I can easily count them on one hand. 

Just knowing its not tracking this to england on the GFS is all you need to see right now, Its keeping this system nearby, It will be last to the party like all the other times, Bank on that.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He would deserve it, not us, apparently.

Folks out to the west don't need the snow, You would be taking it away from the ski areas on the cape.

[CTWeatherFreak]

12z RGEM  crush job.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CTWeatherFreak said:

12z RGEM  crush job.

How and for who?

[Typhoon Tip]

...one aspect that's awesome here ...though probably chagrining to the locals ... is that some of these guidance double our (so far) seasonal snow totals into the interior Carolina coastal plain from this thing while bringing flurries to Logan. 

It's not such a big deal in itself to have a southern rip that smokes cirrus up this way as we all know. But doing so from a full-latitude construct is either a, a red flag, or b, pretty friggin' rare and interesting.

[CTWeatherFreak]

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

12z RGEM  crush job.

Thought it only goes out to 48?