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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx
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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Can be locked into wrong!

 

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

EPS trend (78hr) is better for our area pack.  Big picture def. shows westward movement but I wouldn't read too much into the SE vs NE quantities or orientation there on that map.

I am surprised the surface of the EPS mean isn't better.  The member plots look west to me...but it's the EPS it knows best.

At hour 54 it's lined up pretty good with the GEPS but then the GEPS takes the lows NNE and EPS takes them more ENE at hour 60.

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

 

I am surprised the surface of the EPS mean isn't better.  The member plots look west to me...but it's the EPS it knows best.

At hour 54 it's lined up pretty good with the GEPS but then the GEPS takes the lows NNE and EPS takes them more ENE at hour 60.

Sounding show a tremendous amount of dry air below 700mb back this way. Maybe that's why totals are low.

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

I highly doubt it makes it back this far other than milky cirrus... I think Wilson up to Suffolk, VA could be jackpot for this one taking a compromise of model solutions

I agree if the storm happens as shown per models right now. I just don’t think it’s done coming west, quicker phase. 

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3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

No way It'll ever throw any snow back to me and you! I never get a flake from Atlantic LP.................  I would feel pretty good if I where Raleigh to the Coast though!!

Unlikely for us, yes.  But still fun to watch.  Things are still trending though.. maybe I can squeeze out a powdery inch!

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I highly doubt it makes it back this far other than milky cirrus... I think Wilson up to Suffolk, VA could be jackpot for this one taking a compromise of model solutions

I still don't think we have seen the final solution yet. It's still coming west, and until that trend stops, all bets are off.

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13 minutes ago, WintersNotComing said:

Would someone mind explaining SREF plumes to me? I’m assuming it’s some kind of ensemble model. For Columbia it’s showing a snowfall mean of 1.98 inches. How reputable is this model?


.

SREF is just starting to come into its range as well as an FYI. 

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The SREF’s main purpose is to get everyone excited and then pull the rug out. I don’t remember a single time when they trended better for this area up until the event.  I do remember a lot of times them showing better and better and better snow progs until about 12-24 hrs out.  Then bam!  Back to zero.  Still, I like seeing them. :)

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