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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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You can definitely see the CAD on the temp map for 24-35 Dec.  I can’t remember if the models tend to overdo or underestimate CAD.  I know it is often slow to erode but that could just mean long period of lows 40s and drizzle.  



They tend to underestimate it. It's one of the ways we often score an over performer.
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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


They tend to underestimate it. It's one of the ways we often score an over performer.

 

No doubt. But we need to be in the short range before figuring that stuff out. Once we know the depth of the CAD we can look at surface wind plots and figure out how much staying power it will have. Globals almost always scour it out to fast. This error gets compounded when the actual temp is off a few degrees on the high side as well. Rgem is the only model I've seen get it wrong by being too cold. Nam 3k seems like it does pretty well. 

There have been many events where the surface progs go above freezing but actual temps never do. CAD is cool like that. Lol. 

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt. But we need to be in the short range before figuring that stuff out. Once we know the depth of the CAD we can look at surface wind plots and figure out how much staying power it will have. Globals almost always scour it out to fast. This error gets compounded when the actual temp is off a few degrees on the high side as well. Rgem is the only model I've seen get it wrong by being too cold. Nam 3k seems like it does pretty well. 

There have been many events where the surface progs go above freezing but actual temps never do. CAD is cool like that. Lol. 

There is so much empirical evidence of that. I don’t pay the GFS any attention for surface temps until within like 12-hrs for a ZR event. And there have been ZR events the past four seasons where even the RGEM predicted pushing above freezing too early. (Of course, 2015 was just bonkers with a legit sidewalk glaze event in March.)

Last season was terrible overall obviously, but even it had a true-to-form ice event in December where going with the slowest changeover model worked out. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

 You making a good weather post without a climate change spin would be unprecendented. BiGLY

It is merely what the empirical evidence states at this time. We wait for verification. It's not like I will wake up in the morning and regret having cold smoke on Christmas.

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

lol..it's very possible I did jinx it..

So far at 500 it looks very different than 18z...

Yeah I would say that's true.  Looks much different than the last 4-5 runs of GFS.  Might not like it as much.  I was getting excited about the ice storm theory.  

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah I would say that's true.  Looks much different than the last 4-5 runs of GFS.  Might not like it as much.  I was getting excited about the ice storm theory.  

No ice storm, but colder. Of course colder and dry, but the SE ridge is far more suppressed on Dec 24th.

gfs_T2ma_us_38.thumb.png.4d4a24f5ac7e72e86ffdfda80cdd2400.png

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah I would say that's true.  Looks much different than the last 4-5 runs of GFS.  Might not like it as much.  I was getting excited about the ice storm theory.  

500 looks much quicker with the trough getting back into the east 12/23.  surface shows a 200 mile southward shift of 540.  If yall dont like it....i sure do.

Nut

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

500 looks much quicker with the trough getting back into the east 12/23.  surface shows a 200 mile southward shift of 540.  If yall dont like it....i sure do.

Nut

I like it but it's boring dry coast to coast.  That was one wild swing however.  Far from clear picture.

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Trying to nail down what to expect 7 days out and through the extended is probably a lost cause at this point. He!!, I think inside of 7 days is still not set in stone yet and would not be surprised to see some major changes there. All I can say is there is a lot of potential setting up but there is also the possibility of a lot of heart ache as well. Should be fun to watch this unfold over the coming days.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Trying to nail down what to expect 7 days out and through the extended is probably a lost cause at this point. He!!, I think inside of 7 days is still not set in stone yet and would not be surprised to see some major changes there. All I can say is there is a lot of potential setting up but there is also the possibility of a lot of heart ache as well. Should be fun to watch this unfold over the coming days.

That was evident with the 0z/6z GFS op runs.  Huge differences with thiose.  

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That was evident with the 0z/6z GFS op runs.  Huge differences with thiose.  

Until we see how the models want to resolve the SW trough I think all options being thrown out are still on the table. And those options will fluctuate from one extreme to the other. So at this point you might as well flip a coin on what to expect through the Holidays and beyond. 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Long range looks much better.  Eps are a thing of beauty how they squeeze the Se ridge out of the picture. GEFS & GEPS do likewise,  and are wet.

Sure does. After a couple really crappy runs with the SER sticking around for a while, the last couple of EPS runs crush it pretty quickly. And looky here..we have a ridge building into GL at the end of the 0z run.

 

5a33b1de61d08_epsnice.png.b71c383be4d2b5fdc473f27ff73c254a.png

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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Until we see how the models want to resolve the SW trough I think all options being thrown out are still on the table. And those options will fluctuate from one extreme to the other. So at this point you might as well flip a coin on what to expect through the Holidays and beyond. 

I feel like the leading contender is some sort of stalled front with SER flexing.  Maybe not at 0z but 6z likes that one again.

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Sure does. After a couple really crappy runs with the SER sticking around for a while, the last couple of EPS runs crush it pretty quickly. And looky here..we have a ridge building into GL at the end of the 0z run.

 

5a33b1de61d08_epsnice.png.b71c383be4d2b5fdc473f27ff73c254a.png

If those models are right , the pattern has great overrunning potential and with the SE ridge more suppressed on this run...we would likely be on the favorable side of the gradient. So after a brief relaxation , the pattern looks to be promising right around Christmas into the new year. 

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