Southern Track Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Trends, a lot less supressed than the GFS ! Euro and CMC, pretty good combo. A lot better track and could have SW flow and overrunning With us losing the EPO, I doubt it will be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, tramadoc said: Not fair to take a shot at Brick. He's not here to defend himself. I'm just giving him a hard time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Very good agreement on a -ao on the op's and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 23 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Very good agreement on a -ao on the op's and ensembles. Don't we need more than the AO? In years past it has seemed we need a +PNA or a -EPO to help keep the pacific at bay. Right now everything is not cooperating except the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Don't we need more than the AO? In years past it has seemed we need a +PNA or a -EPO to help keep the pacific at bay. Right now everything is not cooperating except the AO. The more of those in our favor the better. There is a correlation of the nao going negative when the ao does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: The more of those in our favor the better. There is a correlation of the nao going negative when the ao does. I hope so. I hate seeing the PNA go negative. That's been the one indice that has been primarily in our favor the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 46 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Don't we need more than the AO? In years past it has seemed we need a +PNA or a -EPO to help keep the pacific at bay. Right now everything is not cooperating except the AO. A -AO can't offset a terrible pac in general. Think Dec 2012. Not sure how you folks fared in 2012-13 but the pac (and nasty AK vortex) flooded North Amercia with Pac air so the only thing the AO displaced was pac maritime air from Canada. lol The AO has been a fickle pain in the ass lately. We haven't had a classic long lasting blocking episode since 2010-11. It really has been that long. What we really need to hope for is the -AO showing up is a hint that a more typical 30-45 day blocking episode is on the way. The hostile pac is unlikely to hold for weeks on end. If we get a REAL -ao that lasts well into Feb then our sensible wx can turn on a dime. Basically as fast as the pac jet cuts off, the conus can get right back into business. Especially the eastern half. It's a watch and wait game right now for sure. Other than a lucky break during the Mon-Thurs time frame next week, we have a lot of waiting to do before we know where all this could be going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS still holding firm on Sunday nights flizzard... That's what it's come down to these days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, JoshM said: GFS still holding firm on Sunday nights flizzard... That's what it's come down to these days Hug the CMC and Euro, for a miracle Tues/Wed event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hug the CMC and Euro, for a miracle Tues/Wed event! They are trying. Temps are finally marginal so at least we got that going for us. Mid 20's didn't work out for us last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Still not seeing any long lasting torches lasting more than a few days! Havnt checked the 926 hour GFS though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Still not seeing any long lasting torches lasting more than a few days! Havnt checked the 926 hour GFS though! Well, here's the 768 hour CFS will that work? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 What's been really weird to see is the radically neutral NAO. Usually there's a lot more variability. I suppose that speaks to the lack of storm systems of note coming through eastern North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Still not seeing any long lasting torches lasting more than a few days! Havnt checked the 926 hour GFS though! Open your eyes...it’s not difficult to find. Take your pick...buffet style. Get the sunscreen out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I hear the term "no blocking,no blocking,no blocking" a lot. Here's what no blocking is,Look at 2011-12 when you have AO,NAO levels running up the yazoo at +2,+3,and +4 for weeks and months.That's no chance at all and getting shutout,that's no blocking. People obsessed with a raging AO,NAO can't even see a neutral one anymore.Negative states are preferred but a neutral one could and should deliver winter weather too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 German model is now on tt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 41 minutes ago, packbacker said: Open your eyes...it’s not difficult to find. Take your pick...buffet style. Get the sunscreen out With a perfect High placement I think we can work with the look at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, WarmNose said: With a perfect High placement I think we can work with the look at 240 I mean yeah, if you want to cherry pick a few 240+ hour red maps, ok! But plenty of cold shots between, so there won't be any 2 week stretches of 20 degree above normal. These straw man heat ups are fading as we speak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I mean yeah, if you want to cherry pick a few 240+ hour red maps, ok! But plenty of cold shots between, so there won't be any 2 week stretches of 20 degree above normal. These straw man heat ups are fading as we speak The way models have behaved this year, I don't believe anything until I see it falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: The way models have behaved this year, I don't believe anything until I see it falling from the sky. I'm sure we will see verification scores of .90 on the Euro, but it seems like it has been horrible. This has been a strange winter so far. We had the December surprise snowstorm, the incredibly long-lasting cold shot, the east coast blizzard. What's next? Who knows, but I'll bet the models will not get it right either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Please make sure to use a clean plate when you head back to the buffet! 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Please make sure to use a clean plate when you head back to the buffet! But it's a La Nina winter. How can this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, WarmNose said: But it's a La Nina winter. How can this happen? Indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Somebody mentioned Brick earlier this evening. Does anybody know what happened to him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Somebody mentioned Brick earlier this evening. Does anybody know what happened to him? He's active on the other board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS showing another pretty good cold snap from roughly the 16th to the 20th but several swings and misses with regards to frozen. I don't know how much more of this I can take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I love the GFS look. Got the cold to work with and I do NOT want to see any snow storm for 3-5 days in advance just for it to disappear. The swing and misses are perfect right now at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Long term pattern is warming up just enough to rain, then cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Touchet said: Long term pattern is warming up just enough to rain, then cold and dry. Sounds like a Nina. On this weekend's storm Euro folds to the gfs again with the eastern solution. Grit should add that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 57 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Sounds like a Nina. On this weekend's storm Euro folds to the gfs again with the eastern solution. Grit should add that one too. <typical nina> Warms up, we get a App or lake cutter, turns cold for a few days, and then repeat cycle. Cold gets bottled up to the NW and we get glancing shots after the front from the low passes. Our average temp ends up above normal because of all the lows pumping in SW winds as they pass to the north and west. <not typical> The past weeks cold that we experienced; especially in how it was centered over us. You would think we should see more typical nina type weather from this point forward. If so, we can still hope for a strong CAD event to produce a winter storm. Even though we average above normal temp wise, there will still be very cold air to our north. We just need to get a strong high to anchor itself to the north, then one of those app storms would be forced to become a miller B, and that is when we can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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