FallsLake Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Looking strictly at the OPs, the CMC and Euro both still look cool at D10. The GFS overnight runs look better to me at the end of their ranges than the last day or two in terms of building cold back over in our hemisphere. The next 10-15 days look variable to me with a slight warm lean, after we get past Monday. After that, it’s possible that we might jump warmer for a week or so, but I generally think we’ll remain variable to cool the rest of the winter. I think the calls for an extended, possibly permanent flip to warm will end up busting this year. Of course I'm always hoping for a colder pattern. I liked the look of the CMC at day 10, but I just looked at the indices and they don't look too good. We could lose the PNA and EPO in the LR. We start seeing too many bad pattern indices and warmth is going to win out sooner than later. Again, if so hopefully for not too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Of course I'm always hoping for a colder pattern. I liked the look of the CMC at day 10, but I just looked at the indices and they don't look too good. We could lose the PNA and EPO in the LR. We start seeing too many bad pattern indices and warmth is going to win out sooner than later. Again, if so hopefully for not too long. Yeah, the indicies don’t look the best, and that’s why I think we go warm for a bit. But, we’ve seen those values in the extended chance pretty rapidly. That’s not too uncommon. Give it a week, give or take a little, and I’ll wager they start looking somewhat better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I believe a month or 2 ago before all of this cold moved in I made a comment here about how "if our storm isn't entering the conus in Southern California it's going to be hard to score." And people called me crazy. Well, we see how that played out Webber agrees! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Nice storm on the GFS around next Friday. If we keep the common, ever present, SE trend going, we could atleast get the mountains a crush job they desperately need! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 CMC looks like back to the freezer after a short thaw.. no second thaw either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: CMC looks like back to the freezer after a short thaw.. no second thaw either? GFS has a cold look after this Friday storm also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 39 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS has a cold look after this Friday storm also Fact or Fiction. Hope it's right. Cmc seems to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Fact or Fiction. Hope it's right. Cmc seems to agree. JB says, a few days of thaw, then back to cold, then " drop the hammer cold" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Can the NAVGEM score another...almost a Franklin/Mack special. Definitely a western Carolinas and MA special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 GEFS has a few members with trailing lows...like this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Can the NAVGEM score another...almost a Franklin/Mack special. Definitely a western Carolinas and MA special. Short answer: No Hows it gonna snow with all those pretty orange maps you've been showing!? But our best storms come after a warm day or two! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JB says, a few days of thaw, then back to cold, then " drop the hammer cold" ! We've already had a great winter imo, if it ends tommorrow. Complete reversal from past 2. That being said this winter if it chooses to, can paste bomb us a couple of times and go down in SE weather folklore beside 2009/2010 as one of the best ever. Already has a historic cold snap and historic coastal GA and Carolina snowstorm (Blizzard) NE NC and tidewatwater. I'm interested to see how the second half shakes out. Encouraged the thaw is transient and right back to winter by Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Short answer: No Hows it gonna snow with all those pretty orange maps you've been showing!? But our best storms come after a warm day or two! Need this thing to close off 100 miles futher east of the Mississippi. But agree this has big potential for mtns. At a minimum on backside they'll still score several inches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 168 on the Canadian telling Pack to put away his red maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 30 years ago today 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 CMC still has an interesting look for the day 9/10 time frame. Extrapolating out after this it also looks cold: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Yep...ready to be done with the cold. Tankless froze up again, been trying to de-thaw for the past hour and so far no luck. Never been this hard to de-thaw...but a low of 1F will do that I guess. Friday I am going to have to turn the AC on...low in the 60's on Friday morning. 60F+ higher for the low then this morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, FallsLake said: CMC still has an interesting look for the day 9/10 time frame. Extrapolating out after this it also looks cold: The 6-10 is back at the cold look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: The 6-10 is back at the cold look again. Long range GFS showed a Packuary torch! luckily , it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 GFS has rain around or near me, from Monday-Saturday! Go figure now all the cold will be gone Monday afternoon! There were also a lot of apps rubbers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Long range GFS showed a Packuary torch! luckily , it sucks To get to our Fab Feb we have to go throw a ridgerrific pattern for a week or so. By next weekend you and ColdRain will be salivating over the 11-15 day pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: To get to our Fab Feb we have to go throw a ridgerrific pattern for a week or so. By next weekend you and ColdRain will be salivating over the 11-15 day pattern. Where is your water heater located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Where is your water heater located? It’s a tankless on outside wall. All week I have programmed my dishwasher to run at 2-3am and that has worked to keep it from freezing. This morning I thought it worked, got up at 5:30 and it was still working. But at 7:30 it stopped. Been trying since with hair dryer and no luck. All this cold for 1” of snow isn’t worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: It’s a tankless on outside wall. All week I have programmed my dishwasher to run at 2-3am and that has worked to keep it from freezing. This morning I thought it worked, got up at 5:30 and it was still working. But at 7:30 it stopped. Been trying since with hair dryer and no luck. All this cold for 1” of snow isn’t worth it. Yeah that sucks. Sorry man. We’ve left our faucets dripping. Our heater is in the crawl space which is sealed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Yeah that sucks. Sorry man. We’ve left our faucets dripping. Our heater is in the crawl space which is sealed. I have a heated/cooled crawl so it's strange the tankless is freezing this bad. The outside pipes are insulated really well and the inside pipes are in a conditioned space. Starting to worry something else might be wrong because it's been like 2 hours off/on with a hair dryer, it usually at most takes 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: It’s a tankless on outside wall. All week I have programmed my dishwasher to run at 2-3am and that has worked to keep it from freezing. This morning I thought it worked, got up at 5:30 and it was still working. But at 7:30 it stopped. Been trying since with hair dryer and no luck. All this cold for 1” of snow isn’t worth it. Also, hate it for you; hope you can get it thawed with no problems. Maybe the Pack vs. Duke game will help your mood. Fine with me if we keep the ridgerrific pattern in Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Looks like we're going back cold guys later in the month but I could use a week or ten days of thaw myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 37 minutes ago, packbacker said: I have a heated/cooled crawl so it's strange the tankless is freezing this bad. The outside pipes are insulated really well and the inside pipes are in a conditioned space. Starting to worry something else might be wrong because it's been like 2 hours off/on with a hair dryer, it usually at most takes 30 mins. It’s just been so cold for so long. I’ve expected mine to freeze at some point, but I’ve been lucky so far. Pretty unbelievable the duration of below freezing around here. Pretty crazy the record that we’re breaking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It’s just been so cold for so long. I’ve expected mine to freeze at some point, but I’ve been lucky so far. Pretty unbelievable the duration of below freezing around here. Pretty crazy the record that we’re breaking here. It's going to be all for nothing if we can't muster up more snow then 1" this winter. This is year 14 since our last double digit snowfall season and we have 1 6"+ snow since 2004. I don't even like thinking about it anymore, it's the worst period for living in Raleigh for snow and it seems like no end in sight. #snowholeFTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 OP EURO looks pretty dang cold days 7 through 10...Not quite as cold as it has been but below average again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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