Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: The -EPO on the Euro needs to go in the shop...this doesn't look like a -EPO. This looks like spring... What does the GEPS show for that same time period? On PivotalWeather, it looks like a general trough in the east on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 GFS looks better at 96 on 12z. Vort tracking further to the south this run, with a large 2m temp gradient all the way down to ATL. At 102, closed contour over southeast Arkansas, whereas 6z had it over central TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Temps are warmer though, bordering 32, so that would mitigate accumulations. It would be one of those ZR events where the tree tops have a bit of a glisten but surface impacts would be negligible. 32 degree events don’t work out for ice because we often see 60-70 degree temps leading up the event. I don’t quite remember the last time we saw this kind of potential on the tail end of a cold wave. I think surface impacts would be high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Storm gets squashed by the northern stream wave over the Great Lakes on the 12z GFS so the early precip is light. CMC has a hardcore icing event for NC foothills up into SW VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It doesn’t take much ice for a winter weather advisory. 0z EURO would have Atlanta, Georgia area in the mix before going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I doubt the models are handling the dry cold air in place well this far out. Probably too fast in warming temps and off on the evaporative cooling. I have seen this many times and climo/micro climates can really be hammered. There is some uncertainty on the QPF tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What does the GEPS show for that same time period? On PivotalWeather, it looks like a general trough in the east on that model. Looks warm...trough in the GOA, those can be very stubborn to dislodge. We are kind of following what happened last winter...couple of cold shots in December, first 10 days of January was cold, big east coast storm. Then all out torch from mid-Jan through spring. Last winter from mid Jan to March 1st I think our high was in the 70's half those days. Compare the GEFS 5 day extended mean with what we saw last winter from mid-Jan on....not good if you want cold anytime soon. Well anytime after Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nice, Pack! You’ll be able to get that preemergent down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Pretty cool how the CMC scoures out the wedge and runs the LP through upper SC/lower NC. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that ain’t gonna happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nice, Pack! You’ll be able to get that preemergent down. Personally I think we will get another 7-10 cold shot end of Jan into Feb. The GEFS still showing the -AO for the next 10 days. We had a -EPO/-AO in Dec for 10 days, got another one in Jan for 10 days, think it happens one more time. Though analogs say we are warm for Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Waiting for @Cold Rain teleconnections. Looks like the Neutral to slightly Negative, same for the NAO. PNA is looking positive to Neutral and the EPO is flat lined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nice, Pack! You’ll be able to get that preemergent down. Pre Emergent useless unless ground temp is 55degrees Save your money 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Pretty cool how the CMC scoures out the wedge and runs the LP through upper SC/lower NC. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that ain’t gonna happen. path of least resistance theory say it would transfer or bypass that chunk of air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It can get really really warm, overperforming long range models. Basically, something needed to break in this cold pattern and it didn't, and seemed to maybe strengthen. A lot of extra energy like you would see in El Nino's... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 CMC is a Major ICE Storm for southern and central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Waiting for @Cold Rain teleconnections. Looks like the Neutral to slightly Negative, same for the NAO. PNA is looking positive to Neutral and the EPO is flat lined. Man, I'm on vaca...I mean working from home today. The connection is slow, so it's hard to prepare and upload images. But you got the gist of it. Falls laid it out pretty well above. Looks like a good opportunity to relax the pattern. I don't buy the flip to warm being a semi-permanent feature for the rest of the winter though. Chuck is confusing me again. Chuck, are you saying: 1 ) That we should have broken the cold pattern down already but didn't and because of that, we should reverse hard and go really warm? 2 ) That since the cold pattern didn't break down, warm-ups could get pretty warm, but probably won't? 3 ) That it might get cold or warm and stay cold or warm or flip from cold to warm back to cold or flip from warm to cold back to warm? 4 ) That the typical La Nino switch from cold to warm didn't occur and now the El Nina cold pattern might change to mild or back to an energetic flow that could offer bouts of weather? 5 ) Other (fill in blank here): ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Thanks, Cold Rain 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Pack said it was going to torch, and he's never wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 DT talking about the Snowhole again in Chester.... said it snowed for 12 straight hours and only got 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 From the NC Climate Office blog today... This weekend, a reinforcing shot of cold air is on the way, and parts of the Coastal Plain with snow still on the ground could be looking at some of their coldest temperatures in years. Sunday morning's forecasted low in Edenton is 5°F. The last time temperatures dropped that low there was almost 22 years ago on February 5, 1996, and that station has only been that cold seven times since 1872. Rare air, indeed. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=251 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Raleigh hasnt been above freezing since last year. Getting ready /on pace to break the all time record for cold stretch: All that LR torchmas talk really went to pots. RDU will have 3 consecutive BN months Nov,Dec,Jan by the end of this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Shout to WxSouth (Robert) seasonal outlook back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Alien ship is lifting out shortly lol A lot of extra potential energy around the globe right now, call it mountain torque and whatever, and with blocks expected to break on models this is usually a signal for good warm up in the next few weeks. (the alien ship might drop in for a +PNA in a week.) Thanks, Chuck. That makes sense. Do you think the aliens are gone for the rest of the winter? Or are you thinking they just temporarily warp out to refuel/resupply and perhaps return late in the month/Feb and drop another multi-phasic block bomb on us and make us cold again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: CMC is a Major ICE Storm for southern and central VA. Man BRING IT! I am literally deprived of winter weather this year. My total for this year is 1/2 inch of snow from basically Lake Michigan effect, as there was a streamer that made it down this way and set up shop for a couple hours. I will take anything at this point. Is Euro showing anything similar to CMC as of 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Man BRING IT! I am literally deprived of winter weather this year. My total for this year is 1/2 inch of snow from basically Lake Michigan effect, as there was a streamer that made it down this way and set up shop for a couple hours. I will take anything at this point. Is Euro showing anything similar to CMC as of 12z? Dang man, I thought you got something last month when we got 5 inches in Southside. South Boston got a dusting to 1/2 inch down to Hyco lake then bending back to Reidsville and GSO last night but we didnt even see a flake to my knowledge.. Sharp edge. I think this this next threat could be some sleet/snow to start if the precip starts early enough.. Even EURO hints at this but doesnt really move in moisture until it has warmed up. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Pack said it was going to torch, and he's never wrong It's a curse really...nice frisbee golf weather though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This winter has been more interesting than the last 2 IMO even if we torch in a few weeks. CFS painted a below normal JAN its last couple of runs and the EPS doesnt look too awful in the long range, There was always going to be a thaw after these temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It's a curse really...nice frisbee golf weather though.Golf... Be it frisbee or regular is for the birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Dang man, I thought you got something last month when we got 5 inches in Southside. South Boston got a dusting to 1/2 inch down to Hyco lake then bending back to Reidsville and GSO last night but we didnt even see a flake to my knowledge.. Sharp edge. I think this this next threat could be some sleet/snow to start if the precip starts early enough.. Even EURO hints at this but doesnt really move in moisture until it has warmed up. Something to watch. No we had heavy virga for hours. It was so dry here when GSO and everyone got there big snow. Was pretty painful to watch. About 50 miles south of ROA got 2''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 25 minutes ago, packbacker said: It's a curse really...nice frisbee golf weather though. Yeah man, hopefully, I can find my frisbee betwixt all of the frost! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah man, hopefully, I can find my frisbee betwixt all of the frost! So what you’re saying is pack posted #fakenews? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now