FallsLake Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: That has a rainy look to it! There would be cold air to work with: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Right now the precip it gives us is limited. But maybe we get one more chance before the "warm up". Euro had some kind of mini slop event for my area, around the 20th! Right as temps are on the upswing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: There would be cold air to work with: That ULL pack showed, might be the polar vortex, as cold as its going to be next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro had some kind of mini slop event for my area, around the 20th! Right as temps are on the upswing! Just now, mackerel_sky said: That ULL pack showed, might be the polar vortex, as cold as its going to be next week! I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right. Sat through end of next week looks really cold. Hopefully it’s just a couple of weeks of AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Around the 20th screams overrunning to me, a little ice as the cold air lessens. Bares watching the qpf trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right. Well, JB was talking torch all winter in Oct/Nov for his winter forecast, but I believe he flipped to cold last minute in Dec, as he could already see it. So , he's not as great as everyone thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, Red1976Red said: Around the 20th screams overrunning to me, a little ice as the cold air lessens. Bares watching the qpf trends. It does bear watching. Really a nowcasting or birdcasting situation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The buffet slayer! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Well, JB was talking torch all winter in Oct/Nov for his winter forecast, but I believe he flipped to cold last minute in Dec, as he could already see it. So , he's not as great as everyone thinks I don't think anyone forecasted a record breaking cold wave, several rare tornadoes in November, the two major winter events in the S/E so far, or how much rain we are about to see in January. Including JB, government agencies, none are doing a superior job. The only thing I recall is above normal and dry all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The buffet slayer! Hot Dam! That looks like a Pizza Inn buffet chocolate chip pizza right there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 7m7 minutes ago The #LaNina advisory continues, as CPC/@climatesociety forecasters anticipate La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hot Dam! That looks like a Pizza Inn buffet chocolate chip pizza right there! Are deep shades of blue and purple good? Can we score graupel with that look..? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 That cut off scenario would have some really good ratios, if it came to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Are deep shades of blue and purple good? Can we score graupel with that look..? More like scrapple! ! Atleast we have another 7 days ish of cold, the most important ingredient for our storms! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hot Dam! That looks like a Pizza Inn buffet chocolate chip pizza right there! You can’t beat a Pizza Inn buffet or high ratio intense ULL snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You can’t beat a Pizza Inn buffet or high ratio intense ULL snow! Only model site I use is TT. Did the Euro show some ULL action for us? What's all this snow talk about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Only model site I use is TT. Did the Euro show some ULL action for us? What's all this snow talk about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You can’t beat a Pizza Inn buffet or high ratio intense ULL snow! Our winter has come to rely on an ULL. Next thing I know we are going to start talking about a SSW event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Only model site I use is TT. Did the Euro show some ULL action for us? What's all this snow talk about Only a couple hundreths at GSP, more further east with almost a tenth at UZA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: Our winter has come to rely on an ULL. Next thing I know we are going to start talking about a SSW event. heh. believe it or not, that was on the twitter machine yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: heh. believe it or not, that was on the twitter machine yesterday. lol. Always the last grasp at winter is the old SSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Well, JB was talking torch all winter in Oct/Nov for his winter forecast, but I believe he flipped to cold last minute in Dec, as he could already see it. So , he's not as great as everyone thinks Go back and read it. He said SE would be normal to +1, I don't believe that is a torch. In August he said winter was coming a lot earlier than what most think. He said again in Oct that from Thanksgiving to Christmas would be colder than last year. He has been saying since Christmas warm up around latter part of Jan and then cold coming back. Problem is everybody thinks he predicts their back yard. He is about patterns. Enjoy the weather its the only weather you got 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Solak said: NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 7m7 minutes ago The #LaNina advisory continues, as CPC/@climatesociety forecasters anticipate La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml … Please, please bring us a weak Nino next year. We've GOT to get the southern stream going. I'm so over the northern stream dominated boo boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: Is this Raleigh or Charlotte on the 1's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, Tacoma said: Is this Raleigh or Charlotte on the 1's? Matthew East is located in Charlotte but forecasts for the Charlotte region and the Triad. His videos will show the pattern and the models for the entire Southeast. He also posts here sometimes as MSUWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Awesome GFS run if you like cutter after cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Awesome GFS run if you like cutter after cutter. The indices are not in our favor. The one good thing to take away from the run is there continues to be cold air available in NA. Once we get some blocking set up (..Maybe 1st of February), we'll be able to tap/use that air for a potential winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: Please, please bring us a weak Nino next year. We've GOT to get the southern stream going. I'm so over the northern stream dominated boo boo. Typically if you’re coming off a multi year La Niña a weak El Niño on the order of 0.2–0.7 won’t do a whole lot with the southern stream. You usually need to kick into a decent 1.0-1.5. And history shows that is USUALLY what happens. 57-58, 72-73, 76-77, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 all came off multi year La Niñas and the two which could be modeled (02-03 09-10) showed up well in advance on the climate models. My hunch is if we don’t start seeing a pronounced move by April in the ENSO models to a 1-1.5 by next winter then you can probably assume we go closer to neutral as when you’re in a negative PDO phase or on your way into one which may be more the case now, the ENSO models usually verify too high on predicted El Niño’s beyond 6 months 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Typically if you’re coming off a multi year La Niña a weak El Niño on the order of 0.2–0.7 won’t do a whole lot with the southern stream. You usually need to kick into a decent 1.0-1.5. And history shows that is USUALLY what happens. 57-58, 72-73, 76-77, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 all came off multi year La Niñas and the two which could be modeled (02-03 09-10) showed up well in advance on the climate models. My hunch is if we don’t start seeing a pronounced move by April in the ENSO models to a 1-1.5 by next winter then you can probably assume we go closer to neutral as when you’re in a negative PDO phase or on your way into one which may be more the case now, the ENSO models usually verify too high on predicted El Niño’s beyond 6 months How does La Nada work out for us after a multi year nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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