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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

The latest GFS brings the heat back by mid-month (after a brief "cool down"). :lol:

Welcome to GA.  Reverse the summer and winter durations you’re used to.  We get six month summers 50-60 days of 90+ heat is common. Record set not long ago at 90 days in one year over 90 and we get 1-2 months of winter the rest of the year tends to be gorgeous. 

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Pattern change is within 7days now. As RAH states below, freezing temps likely. In most years this would not be an issue, but its been so warm I would hope they issue freeze warnings (...usually this doesn't start until the end of March).

<LAST PART OF LONG RANGE>

It will become breezy-windy in CAA behind the front Thu night and
particularly with
diurnal heating on Fri, amidst a tight height/
pressure
gradient around the occluding deep layer low off the middle
Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend cooler, into the 50s, to
lwr-
mid 60s in
srn counties Fri-Sat, with colder lows in the 30s to lwr
40s by the weekend, and some sub-freezing temperatures probable over
the Piedmont on Mon morning.

 

 

  

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On 2/24/2018 at 9:10 PM, PackGrad05 said:

Yeah.  We have had almost 2 weeks of 60-80 degree days here...  It really feels like April/May.  Flowers/tree are budding/blossoming.  Pollen everywhere.

Agreed...rode down the mountain to Butner and wow!  Cherries and Bradford Pears blooming everywhere and the Redbuds will follow soon...it's 45 up here tonight

 

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26 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

This might have potential, but it's still way out there...

image.thumb.png.1b4cf9752c758aca13788f9e554b286f.png

It's a long-shot, but it's about all we have at the moment. Guess we will be rooting for the NW trend...

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2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

It's a long-shot, but it's about all we have at the moment. Guess we will be rooting for the NW trend...

I also agree. I think this will be the time period to hope for a late year miracle. At the very least, we'll be tracking some freezing temps.

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8 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I also agree. I think this will be the time period to hope for a late year miracle. At the very least, we'll be tracking some freezing temps.

Take a look at the 0z run. That NW trend sure happened quick. Probably will be a lakes cutter by verification time.

prateptype_cat.conus.pngprateptype_cat.conus.png

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5 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Take a look at the 0z run. That NW trend sure happened quick. Probably will be a lakes cutter by verification time.

prateptype_cat.conus.pngprateptype_cat.conus.png

Of course the 6z run doesn't have the same look; but it still has the overall pattern setup (cold, possible storm). At the 10 day range there'll be huge solution differences with each run.  We have (try) to ignore the details and only focus on the pattern. Get us to Saturday/Sunday and hopefully a storm is showing.     

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Of course the 6z run doesn't have the same look; but it still has the overall pattern setup (cold, possible storm). At the 10 day range there'll be huge solution differences with each run.  We have (try) to ignore the details and only focus on the pattern. Get us to Saturday/Sunday and hopefully a storm is showing.     

Let me go ahead and get this out of the way now regarding next week's potential........the sun angle is too high, the soil temp is too warm, the warm nose is too strong, there will be a dry slot, gulf thunderstorms will rob the moisture, no chance for anyone outside the mountains, and oh yeah the time changes next week so it will be daylight longer.  Did I miss any?:D

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2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Let me go ahead and get this out of the way now regarding next week's potential........the sun angle is too high, the soil temp is too warm, the warm nose is too strong, there will be a dry slot, gulf thunderstorms will rob the moisture, no chance for anyone outside the mountains, and oh yeah the time changes next week so it will be daylight longer.  Did I miss any?:D

Well, that pretty much sums it up.... glad we got that out of the way before we wasted a week tracking this one.

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18 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Let me go ahead and get this out of the way now regarding next week's potential........the sun angle is too high, the soil temp is too warm, the warm nose is too strong, there will be a dry slot, gulf thunderstorms will rob the moisture, no chance for anyone outside the mountains, and oh yeah the time changes next week so it will be daylight longer.  Did I miss any?:D

Tell me what does daylight saving have to do with this possible storm chance one way or another. It still 24 hours. Not one minute more or less. 

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Let me go ahead and get this out of the way now regarding next week's potential........the sun angle is too high, the soil temp is too warm, the warm nose is too strong, there will be a dry slot, gulf thunderstorms will rob the moisture, no chance for anyone outside the mountains, and oh yeah the time changes next week so it will be daylight longer.  Did I miss any?
Jupiter is in retrograde and St. Patrick's Day is within two weeks.
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From GSP's Mid Range Forecast Discussion this morning.....

 Max Temps near normal
Friday through Sunday then a couple degrees below normal Monday. It
is interesting that the GFS gives our area a snowstorm late next
week, but EC has us dry and warmer. Low chance of GFS being right.

......So you're saying there's a chance

 

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4 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Tell me what does daylight saving have to do with this possible storm chance one way or another. It still 24 hours. Not one minute more or less. 

Ooo,Ooo pick me. pick me... but the time shift moves more daylight to the afternoon so the sun angle creates more melting..................seriously, pretty sure he was kidding.

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2 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

Ooo,Ooo pick me. pick me... but the time shift moves more daylight to the afternoon so the sun angle creates more melting..................seriously, pretty sure he was kidding.

He probably was kidding but you can never be sure. Back when they moved the start of daylight saving time from late April to March there actually were some people seriously concerned that the extra hour of sunlight that early in the year would cause an early spring. 

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34 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I was just kidding but I had a co worker once who said in November that his deer hunting wasn’t going well because the time had changed and the deer were confused. He was a S.C. graduate. 

Actually I'll buy this one.  Animals are keenly aware of human habits and patterns.  When we abruptly change our patterns it throws the animals off there schedules which often revolve around us.  Nonscientific observation: roadkill spikes around time changes.

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8 minutes ago, Summey said:

Actually I'll buy this one.  Animals are keenly aware of human habits and patterns.  When we abruptly change our patterns it throws the animals off there schedules which often revolve around us.  Nonscientific observation: roadkill spikes around time changes.

Further investigation of the road kill phenomenon would probably show the spring increase would occur in the morning and the fall increase in the afternoon. No big mystery.  More people driving in a dark hour that was a light hour yesterday.

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I guess it could be worse.  27º above normal for Feb. is just crazy.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/weather/arctic-temperatures-record-high-intl/index.html

Calculations from Cape Morris Jessup, the world's northernmost land-based weather station, show that temperatures from February in eastern Greenland and the central Arctic are averaging about 15°C (27°F) warmer than seasonal norms.

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

He probably was kidding but you can never be sure. Back when they moved the start of daylight saving time from late April to March there actually were some people seriously concerned that the extra hour of sunlight that early in the year would cause an early spring. 

lol, I know. Facts are such elusive animals sometimes.

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Guys isn't March 8 thru 12 looking very interesting?  I realize its 10 days out but its got potential.  GSP has mentioned snow possibly the end of next week in the mountains, that's all they will say right now which is understandable.  

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3 hours ago, jburns said:

I guess it could be worse.  27º above normal for Feb. is just crazy.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/weather/arctic-temperatures-record-high-intl/index.html

Calculations from Cape Morris Jessup, the world's northernmost land-based weather station, show that temperatures from February in eastern Greenland and the central Arctic are averaging about 15°C (27°F) warmer than seasonal norms.

This just bums me out.  We could have some historic March bomb that drops 30" on us and I wouldn't be able to fully enjoy it. 

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I was just kidding but I had a co worker once who said in November that his deer hunting wasn’t going well because the time had changed and the deer were confused. He was a S.C. graduate. 
Figures you'd get that from a guy who graduated from a school with a chicken as a mascot.
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It's really too bad this upcoming pattern didn't occur one month earlier (of heck two weeks earlier). The 12z GFS does show two potential storm events past day 8. Problem is time of year. Even with a great setup many outside of the mountains just can't get cold enough to see a significant winter storm. We can hope that the models are having a hard time determining surface temps with the March blocking but reality is it will be very difficult to score a late season storm (for lower elevations). For the mountain folks, I would be very excited with the upcoming potential. I have a son at Appalachian State and I told him to watch out for late next week and onwards.   

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I'm just glad to get back to seasonable temperatures and humidity. 70's or higher and high humidity is expected for half of the year here, so I can't stand it when it happens during the other half.

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