PB GFI Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 20 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Thank you for backing me up on this. He and I disagreed and your argument was that the flow was zonal and 4 days ago you said the LR would moderate The last 11 days in NYC were minus 6.8 which can never denote zonal . The blocking being further N as its an extention of higher heights coming out of the Kara sea . Now like I have been saying the 6 to 10 is cold and the 10 to 15 is BN when the heights connect over the pole and you possibly change the source region Do you see the LR now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Heck of a way to run a -PDO! Warm blob appearing.... We pinned a BN November and now December should be BN as well. With high lattitude blocking we think we will put snow points on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: 7 day change: With the exception of the waters off Southern California and the northern Mexican coast, that is a -PDO configuration in the SSTA map you posted The PDO is neutral ( actually +0.4) so you’re wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 The fast PAC Jet has done an effective job at shutting down any coastal storm activity so far this month. All the amped up systems run through the GL which is typical for a Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 It's a very unfavorable pattern for snow, it's mostly a bunch of fast moving cutters or offshore coastal systems that can never amplify in this flow. We'll probably have to wait until late December for snow chances unless the pattern alters significantly. In 2010/11 we needed a very strong blocking pattern to counteract the Nina's effects and it still took until late December before we got snow. If the blocking this year is half the strength, then it's going to be a long wait. DT's outlook seems way too optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a very unfavorable pattern for snow, it's mostly a bunch of fast moving cutters or offshore coastal systems that can never amplify in this flow. We'll probably have to wait until late December for snow chances unless the pattern alters significantly. In 2010/11 we needed a very strong blocking pattern to counteract the Nina's effects and it still took until late December before we got snow. If the blocking this year is half the strength, then it's going to be a long wait. DT's outlook seems way too optimistic. It’s not even thanksgiving yet , wait until December 10th and we’ll see how things evolve by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a very unfavorable pattern for snow, it's mostly a bunch of fast moving cutters or offshore coastal systems that can never amplify in this flow. We'll probably have to wait until late December for snow chances unless the pattern alters significantly. In 2010/11 we needed a very strong blocking pattern to counteract the Nina's effects and it still took until late December before we got snow. If the blocking this year is half the strength, then it's going to be a long wait. DT's outlook seems way too optimistic. Early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Snowing in uptown manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 White rain in The Bronx First Flakes of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Snowing in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a very unfavorable pattern for snow, it's mostly a bunch of fast moving cutters or offshore coastal systems that can never amplify in this flow. We'll probably have to wait until late December for snow chances unless the pattern alters significantly. In 2010/11 we needed a very strong blocking pattern to counteract the Nina's effects and it still took until late December before we got snow. If the blocking this year is half the strength, then it's going to be a long wait. DT's outlook seems way too optimistic. You could snow by the end of next weekend / and if you don't it's November It's early and a lot colder than you thought it would be December could turn out to be a VG month 85 05 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 38 in the park. Neutralized another AN day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Arctic Oscillation is currently tanking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bklnwx1 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Light snow flurries- Sheepshead Bay- Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Yup flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 1deg. BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Had a nice burst of snow come through here in bed stuy Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Mixed snow and sleet in Far Rockaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Been snowing for half hour plus here. Flurries with a few bursts of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Flurries in the Bronx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Woke up to 1/4" of snow on cars/roofs/lawns. 1st of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Little snow shower coming through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 We have snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 First official flurries of the season here in SW Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 LGA and EWR also reported snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Light snow in Pelham Bay at 39F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 How's da LR looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 This morning parts of the New York City area saw snow flurries. Although the temperature was well above freezing, the flurries offered a reminder that November 2017 has had a greatly different meteorological character than the record warm October that preceded it. Based on the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that November will finish with a colder than normal monthly temperature in New York City. The most likely range would be 44.9°-46.4°. That would represent a 17.7°-19.2° drop from October. That would represent the biggest October-November change in temperature since the monthly mean temperature fell 18.2° in 2007 (and possibly since 1947 when the monthly mean temperature fell 19.4°). This morning, the Arctic Oscillation stood at a preliminary -2.953. That is the lowest November figure since November 4, 2016 when the AO was -3.137. It is also the 3rd lowest figure on record for November 20, surpassed only in 1965 (-3.230) and 1950 (-3.041). The ensembles continue to indicate that the AO will fall below -3.000 in coming days. The downstream response should ensure that November will wind up with a colder than normal anomaly. Going forward, I still believe there is a somewhat higher probability that December will wind up colder than normal in the Northeast and parts of the Great Lakes region. Much of Canada should be colder than normal. The first 7-10 days could average somewhat cooler than normal in the Northeast and eastern Canada, although there remains substantial uncertainty concerning whether or not there will be blocking. However, all things considered, typically the presence of an SOI+ during the first 10 days of December (common in La Niña conditions) is cooler than an SOI- situation. The forecast temperature anomaly on the EPS for the 12/1-5 period lends support to this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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