Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 GFS joins the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Even though this month has furnaced, suburbia could pull off an average date first freeze with the cold surface high on Monday night. Typically, if we decouple with 850mb temperatures at or below 0c, that's sufficient for 32F readings outside of the urban zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Sundog said: Do hurricanes coming toward the eastern US transport warm air masses with them? I've seen this written elsewhere as an excuse for the abnormally warm weather we've been having, but I don't understand how a couple of hurricanes can be responsible for the long term warmth we've had. I thought a hurricane's track was a product of the upper air pattern already in place, not the other way around. Hurricanes themselves are redistribution engines. They utilize potential energy in the tropical oceans, convert it to heat release via robust convective processes, and subsequently transfer the heat energy poleward. However, hurricanes cannot "create energy" - they're not a radiative forcing in and of themselves. Internal variability within Earth's weather patterns modulate the distribution of heat but do not create it; an exogenous mechanism is necessitated for that. So in short, no, hurricanes are not responsible for the very warm fall pattern, and yes, the upper level flow does direct the track of tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 What what a furnace on the gfs. This weekend will torch, they'll be a brief cool down Mon-Tue and then we torch the rest of the week through next weekend. I don't buy a late October cool down, this month will beat 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Hurricanes themselves are redistribution engines. They utilize potential energy in the tropical oceans, convert it to heat release via robust convective processes, and subsequently transfer the heat energy poleward. That's pretty much exactly what I was going to answer. I think of hurricanes as one of the mechanisms that helps to balance out the temperatures on a hemispheric scale. They transport heat poleward making room for cooler air to sink back into that spot and get recycled. I know that's a simplistic read on the action but simple is all I've got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Euro very dry for tomorrow. RGEM/GFS/CMC vs Euro/Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: What what a furnace on the gfs. This weekend will torch, they'll be a brief cool down Mon-Tue and then we torch the rest of the week through next weekend. I don't buy a late October cool down, this month will beat 2007. The long range GFS runs have been inconsistent. I am still thinking a late month cool down, but no confidence yet. It will feel cooler just with getting later in the fall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 With some sunshine and readings in the middle 60s, the Monarch migration remained underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 3 hours ago, mattinpa said: The long range GFS runs have been inconsistent. I am still thinking a late month cool down, but no confidence yet. It will feel cooler just with getting later in the fall season. 26-30 Oct timeframe looks to finally break the warmth, we may see our first below 32f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 26-30 Oct timeframe looks to finally break the warmth, we may see our first below 32f need to see consistency. the 12z run showed AN temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 56 minutes ago, Fantom X said: need to see consistency. the 12z run showed AN temps The ensembles show a cooldown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Next 8 days going the wrong way again, averaging 64degs., or +7degs. By the morning of the 22nd., at this rate, the month will be +7.8degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 EURO FTW as to not buying into rain for today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: EURO FTW as to not buying into rain for today... Moderate rains here, headed to CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 .3 in the bucket here since 6am. a good moderate ground soaker to water the grass seed I put down last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Light drizzle in wantagh. Better then nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Oct Dep thru 10/13 TTN: +9.2 PHL: +8.6 ISP: +8.2 EWR: +8.2 NYC: +8.1 LGA: +8.0 JFK: +7.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Rain since Sep 7 PHL: 3.56 ISP: 2.02 TTN: 1.74 JFK: 1.17 NYC: 0.99 LGA: 0.92 EWR: 0.82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2017 Author Share Posted October 14, 2017 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Rain since Sep 7 PHL: 3.56 ISP: 2.02 TTN: 1.74 JFK: 1.17 NYC: 0.99 LGA: 0.92 EWR: 0.82 4th driest and #1 warmest on record for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Breaks of clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 0.08 this morning at home 0.34 at ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 October 1954 was just as warm as this year and had a cold ending to the month...the first half of November was cold...Major storm on 11/2 with heavy rain and IP's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: EURO FTW as to not buying into rain for today... I got rain this morning, not much but it wet things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 7 hours ago, SACRUS said: Oct Dep thru 10/13 TTN: +9.2 PHL: +8.6 ISP: +8.2 EWR: +8.2 NYC: +8.1 LGA: +8.0 JFK: +7.0 We should easily beat 2007 pending any massive cool down. I don't buy the severity of the late October cool down and we torch this weekend through next weekend minus Mon-Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Ended up being a gorgeous day up this way. Warmth & sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 the winter of 1954-55 was lacking in the snow dept...the winter ave temp was 34.0...long term ave is 33.5...it had only 11.5" of snow...other years that were colder with much less snow than average were...long term snowfall ave is 28.3"... winter.....temp.....snowfall 1930-31...33.8.....11.6" 1941-42...32.9.....11.3" 1958-59...30.9.....13.0" 1961-62...33.3.....18.1" 1962-63...30.0.....16.3" 1967-68...31.3.....19.5" 1970-71...32.1.....15.5" 1980-81...32.7.....19.4" 1985-86...33.4.....13.0" since 1986 a cold winter had at least average snowfall or much more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 18Z GFS is slow with the cold getting here. Another ten 70 degree days are probably possible before Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CIK62 said: 18Z GFS is slow with the cold getting here. Another ten 70 degree days are probably possible before Halloween. Probably possible, you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Well if the 850mb's are right, any day with a 10C or better is a candidate for 70 degrees. But the GFS has been playing ping-pong with the numbers, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 No change for the next 8 days---averaging 64degs., or about +7 or +8degs. Until you start adding in days after the 25th., the above will be the case. The GFS is not taking its' meds and overnight turned Nov. to BN! We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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