donsutherland1 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said: Whats the climatology numbers if it makes it to this predicted position on Saturday? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150543.shtml?tswind120#contents I accidentally quoted the reply to your message. The relevant information can be found here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50244-hurricane-jose/?do=findComment&comment=4623879 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 12z GFS right into S NJ coast on Day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 12z GFS makes landfall near ACY at 228hrs. Biggest threat to most would be flooding rains. Looks like a minimal cat 1 at LF. And it's a small system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 12z Ukmet is into the Port St. Lucie, Florida area in only 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z GFS makes landfall near ACY at 228hrs. Biggest threat to most would be flooding rains. Looks like a minimal cat 1 at LF. And it's a small system. There would be storm surge for all of LI and the NYC Bight with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just now, ag3 said: There would be storm surge for all of LI and the NYC Bight with that track. It wouldn't be that bad given it's a compact storm with a small core, always has been. Let's not over analyze this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: It wouldn't be that bad given it's a compact storm with a small core, always has been. Let's not over analyze this. Not over analyzing anything but there would 100% be a moderate storm surge into the NY Bight and LI south shore with that track. But it's meaningless. Way too far. Ukmet is into Florida in only a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 your assuming the storm won't grow in size... or it won't become extra tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: your assuming the storm won't grow in size... or it won't become extra tropical Winds fields always increase with latitude it's just a fact. If you can get some sandy-esk baroclynic deepening then you have a serious situation. That track has been and always will be the worst case storm surge scenario for the ny bight chance of verfication... .01% there is a reason sandy was and still is a 600 year storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Winds fields always increase with latitude it's just a fact. If you can get some sandy-esk baroclynic deepening then you have a serious situation. That track has been and always will be the worst case storm surge scenario for the ny bight chance of verfication... .01% there is a reason sandy was and still is a 600 year storm Perhaps but the setup presented at H5 is nothing like Sandy and the end result is a decaying tropical cyclone due to slow forward speed and not a rapid phase and acceleration of baroclinic processes. High pressure directed TC into NJ, never happened. 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, maybe but I don't trust old data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1903_New_Jersey_hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 None of the 12z GEFS members are as far Southwest as the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 JB's first thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: JB's first thoughts Pretty large cone there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty large cone there lol Pays to be thorough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: None of the 12z GEFS members are as far Southwest as the UKMET. Post the image to back your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I would say that Port St. Lucie to New Jersey is pretty thorough... Are the models really that out of sync on Jose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Perhaps but the setup presented at H5 is nothing like Sandy and the end result is a decaying tropical cyclone due to slow forward speed and not a rapid phase and acceleration of baroclinic processes. High pressure directed TC into NJ, never happened. 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, maybe but I don't trust old data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1903_New_Jersey_hurricane Your correct about H5 I should have clarified. I was looking more at the end result then how we got there. If this thing stays purely tropical it will rapidly decay after leaving the Gulf Stream. Shelf waters here are below normal for this time of year which further effects the outcome. They are normally dissrupitive enough but the cool start to the month and allot of upwelling from days of strong offshore flow has really knocked down temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I consider all "X-hundred year" for storms, floods, etc. extremely dubious at their root, and even the ones that are accurate are completely misinterpreted by the public/media in terms of probability, which has gotten 10x worse in the last decade for political argumentation purposes. I strongly suspect Sandy-like storms are far more common than an average 600 year recurrence interval. There is also a dynamic where if you put tight enough geographic constraints on a system you can make it seem impossibly unlikely. The specific 10 mile stretch of Texas Beach hit by Harvey, I'm sure, has a very long recurrence interval for Cat 4 landfalls and I am sure Houston has a long recurrence interval for flooding that bad. However, the recurrence interval for "Somewhere in the GOM" landfalls and then massive floods is much, much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Post the image to back your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Derecho! said: I consider all "X-hundred year" for storms, floods, etc. extremely dubious at their root, and even the ones that are accurate are completely misinterpreted by the public/media in terms of probability, which has gotten 10x worse in the last decade for political argumentation purposes. I strongly suspect Sandy-like storms are far more common than an average 600 year recurrence interval. There is also a dynamic where if you put tight enough geographic constraints on a system you can make it seem impossibly unlikely. The specific 10 mile stretch of Texas Beach hit by Harvey, I'm sure, has a very long recurrence interval for Cat 4 landfalls and I am sure Houston has a long recurrence interval for flooding that bad. However, the recurrence interval for "Somewhere in the GOM" landfalls and then massive floods is much, much less. I agree 100%. Nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 No clue what will happen here, 12z gfs does look realistic given the pattern. It looks like a smaller version of Irene coming up the coast. EURO is all over the place too, the model does well within 5 days but anything after that is total crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 30 minutes ago, Derecho! said: I consider all "X-hundred year" for storms, floods, etc. extremely dubious at their root, and even the ones that are accurate are completely misinterpreted by the public/media in terms of probability, which has gotten 10x worse in the last decade for political argumentation purposes. I strongly suspect Sandy-like storms are far more common than an average 600 year recurrence interval. There is also a dynamic where if you put tight enough geographic constraints on a system you can make it seem impossibly unlikely. The specific 10 mile stretch of Texas Beach hit by Harvey, I'm sure, has a very long recurrence interval for Cat 4 landfalls and I am sure Houston has a long recurrence interval for flooding that bad. However, the recurrence interval for "Somewhere in the GOM" landfalls and then massive floods is much, much less. I agree. A big things aren't what the used to be caveat should be used here. The Juan into jersey as it is portrayed still seems much more likely then Sandy however. 600 years? Who knows. But it was a pretty damn extreme event for multiple reasons. All the good luck Florida just had during Irma went the opposite way in ny and nj during sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: Pretty large cone there lol Just wait for the next one to be between the Yucatan and Dublin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 12z ECM further NW through 0z at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 It's early but Jose is likely to be another threat to the east coast. Florida to the maritimes. Can't say much more at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Euro back to almost the same look as 12z Saturday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: 12z ECM further NW through 0z at 174. A lot further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hazey said: It's early but Jose is likely to be another threat to the east coast. Florida to the maritimes. Can't say much more at this time. I don't know about likely. There's not a lot of ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I don't know about likely. There's not a lot of ensemble support. Ukie into Florida 2 runs in a row is telling It was very good with Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I don't know about likely. There's not a lot of ensemble support. Both the Euro and GFS indicate a strong shear axis to the Southwest of Bermuda which further complicates the intensity forecast. Obviously the further Southeast the track, the closer to the stronger shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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