Major Hurricane Irma

[SnowGoose69]

Its hard for me to envision this thing still being a Cat 4 if it makes it to SC.  Just seems like such an insanely long life cycle and you'd figure a higher shear environment shows up eventually once you get up the FL coast

[TellicoWx]

What's the UKMET looking like?

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Why because it bumped West slightly? Looks to me more like your tropical wiper back and forth.

You may be right. Let's see what happens with subsequent runs. I suspect that the cone of potential landfall possibilities may be starting to narrow. Anywhere from FL to SC still looks like the region of highest risk to me, with NC also having some possibility. 

[NJwx85]

At least it's holding together a bit better this run post landfall. The Northeast might get some rain this run.

[sirkan]

4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Because of this, just a few miles can mean the difference between rainbands and the eyewall, leading to another Matthew style extremely difficult forecast for the FL coast from a public safety standpoint. I would definitely error on the side of caution but what if it misses to the east like Matthew? That would leave a sour taste in the eyes of the public. Fine line EMs have to walk.

Yeah, this is tough...know your message was probably referring to MIA / FLL / Space Coast, but can you imagine the decision for the Keys? Hopefully ECMWF and GFS can marry together soon.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its hard for me to envision this thing still being a Cat 4 if it makes it to SC.  Just seems like such an insanely long life cycle and you'd figure a higher shear environment shows up eventually once you get up the FL coast

depends on how much interaction with Florida and if it can stay out over the Gulf Stream. If that's the case then it's game on for Sc. Otherwise I would think a weaker low end cane by then. I like a Donna type track still 

[yoda]

If we care at all... 00z GGEM is set up for a swing and a miss... to the east of everyone

[csnavywx]

Crimeny. 199kt at 911mb. SE eyewall no less.

 

[Stormlover74]

It basically ends up in the middle of the previous 2 runs

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

But it was a bit E of its 12z run.  18z was an outlier.  I expect to see the Euro move toward the GFS.

I suspected the 18z run was an outlier, that's why I compared the 0z to the 18z. I believe the 0z confirmed the 18z's outlier status. I could see the Euro tick closer to the GFS as a model consensus begins to develop with coming runs.

[sirkan]

7 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:

Beginner question sorry - where are you guys looking to see this new data and determining landfall etc?

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

[bdgwx]

With that low over Missouri and the jet streak to it's north it has no choice but to get locked onto the right entrance region and ride the retrograde all the way in.

[Derecho!]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

If we care at all... 00z GGEM is set up for a swing and a miss... to the east of everyone

We shouldn't.

ECMWF followed by UKMET is curb-stomping the other long-term guidance.  At least Canadian is managing to be slightly less awful than the NAVGEM and HMON. 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/

[NJwx85]

Just now, yoda said:

If we care at all... 00z GGEM is set up for a swing and a miss... to the east of everyone

Its phasing with the trough, weird run incoming.

[PressureDrop2017]

Wind speeds on island of Barbuda increasing to 63 knots. Pressure down to 982mb 

970 people have been counted to be in designated shelters on Barbuda. Several hundred other people it is unknown where they are sheltering at this time

[pazzo83]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Crimeny. 199kt at 911mb. SE eyewall no less.

 

That's 230mph jfc

[NJwx85]

The GFS doesn't have Irma experiencing any shear until near landfall, and even then it's Southwesterly, thus enhancing the outflow.

[DopplerWx]

barbuda about to enter the eyewall, the damage there is going to be catastrophic.

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/irma17/Irma_6Sep17_Martinique.gif

[NJwx85]

Looks like the GGEM retrogrades into the NYC area. It's a weak system by then. LOL worthy though.

[pazzo83]

Winds are gusting to hurricane force now in Barbuda (via the buoy) - 67 knots.

[Coach McGuirk]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its hard for me to envision this thing still being a Cat 4 if it makes it to SC.  Just seems like such an insanely long life cycle and you'd figure a higher shear environment shows up eventually once you get up the FL coast

Are you forgetting Hugo?

[Chinook]

Barbuda is getting hit with the eyewall. The BARA9 station (see National Data Buoy Center) is working! about 49 kt gusting to 70 kt at the present time according to time-plot. Winds and gusts are rising rapidly.

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BARA9

[pazzo83]

71 knot gusts now on that poor island.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

We shouldn't.

ECMWF followed by UKMET is curb-stomping the other long-term guidance.  At least Canadian is managing to be slightly less awful than the NAVGEM and HMON. 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/

I've been following the HMON and its tracking thus far has been quite accurate.  On Sunday runs at 18z, the Euro had the pressure for 00z Wed. at 965 mb.  The HMON had the pressure at 903 mb.  Actual was 916 MB.  Their forecasted positions @ 00z were within 50 miles or so of the actual position. 

Here is the NWS/NOAA explanation of how HMON was added to the fleet in July.  Seems the NHC was impressed with its 3 year trial run, a lot of which was in the Pacific:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/scn17-45discontinue_gdflaaa.htm

[NJwx85]

I'm really not sure what's so unbelievable about a high end major into SC during peak season under perfect conditions, not to mention it's a fast mover once it turns North.

[Juliancolton]

6 minutes ago, PressureDrop2017 said:

Wind speeds on island of Barbuda increasing to 63 knots. Pressure down to 982mb 

970 people have been counted to be in designated shelters on Barbuda. Several hundred other people it is unknown where they are sheltering at this time

That leaves a lot of folks unaccounted for – concerning. Out of curiosity, do you have a source for that number I could reference?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

71 knot gusts now on that poor island.

I'm not sure if they are in a half hourly time zone or not.  If they are not the reports appear to be lagging by 30 minutes.

[csnavywx]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I've been following the HMON and its tracking thus far has been quite accurate.  On Sunday runs at 18z, the Euro had the pressure for 00z Wed. at 965 mb.  The HMON had the pressure at 903 mb.  Actual was 916 MB.  Their forecasted positions @ 00z were within 50 miles or so of the actual position. 

Here is the NWS/NOAA explanation of how HMON was added to the fleet in July.  Seems the NHC was impressed with its 3 year trial run, a lot of which was in the Pacific:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/scn17-45discontinue_gdflaaa.htm

They need a version that's coupled to the ocean. Its uncoupled state is currently causing some issues with forecast intensity in Irma (runs with <860mb for instance).

[ROOSTA]

This is a good radar site....Direct Hit...prayers!

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&PlanetOfTheApes=1504671808

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not sure if they are in a half hourly time zone or not.  If they are not the reports appear to be lagging by 30 minutes.

an hour ago