Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Strong model agreement to disagree All options are still on the table and will be for a few days yet until we start to hone in on a track. It is premature for anyone (including meteorologists) to call this both a fish storm or a landfall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 watching the model trends and such, seeing the discussion here, etc, my simple analysis on any landfall or ots potential forecasting: wait until Irma gets to the central Bahamas. Because all the models and all the tracks seem to hint that when she gets there, that's when the ridge interaction will determine all. I know maybe that sounds like we have to be almost too patient on that given what we're seeing. But that's about how I'm thinking of playing it on twitter and with friends on FB at this point, with keeping the shop talk in here until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 EPS mean shifted back a little west than the OP at 12Z with a number of stronger trough interaction members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 To my untrained eye, WAR looks a little less this run, trough looks a little deeper, everything almost same or just slightly east of 12z through 114hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks a good 100 mi or so east of 12z through hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Keep it on topic and the banter in the appropriate thread before 5 postings and time outs are issued. I'm tired of deleting crap from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 18z GFS so far a little quicker moving the trough out and a little slower with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Looks a good 100 mi or so east of 12z through hr 126 I think it's important to note slower compared to truly being east. To me it looks like more of the former up to that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 18z GFS so far a little quicker moving the trough out and a little slower with Irma. Would slower be more likely to LF or Fish? I would think fish since the Euro is slower and it fishes but just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 yep, 18z GFS definitely faster pulling the trough out faster en masse by 141 hrs. Irma slower. This is actually closer to the 0z Euro solution. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Let's let the run finish but if I were a betting man seems that gfs is caving to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks closer to 12z yesterday than any of the runs since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Would slower be more likely to LF or Fish? I would think fish since the Euro is slower and it fishes but just curious. I could be wrong, but trough is getting kicked out and heights are rising along the east coast. I'm guessing a landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Let's let the run finish but if I were a betting man seems that gfs is caving to the euro. Yeah, the 0z Euro. This is not the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It looks like the 18Z GFS is just a hair north and east of the NHC forecast at D5, but not by much. Overall there seems to be a lot of support for the NHC cone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 878 MB, is that a new record for GFS's lowest pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: 878 MB, is that a new record for GFS's lowest pressure? Nah, it had Noru in the upper 860s IIRC. It was 870mb at the very least, I know that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Let's let the run finish but if I were a betting man seems that gfs is caving to the euro. I agree we should let it finish, because I don't see how you're getting this opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 878 MB, is that a new record for GFS's lowest pressure? It's the lowest I've ever seen in the Atlantic basin anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looking to have a ride up the Chesapeake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 yeesh, nearly hurricane force winds expand out the width of sc as it crawls north offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Flatter height field in the Atlantic at 168+ but not necessarily precluding landfall on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hr 192 - Looks like GFS is sticking to its guns. May mirror 12z and have LF at MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z GFS: 897 MB 18z GFS: "Hold my beer real quick." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Look at that trough on z500 vort - looks to be getting cut off via the ridges both east and west builing stronger at hours 174 to 186 . This looks to be another capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 looks headed for a mid atl landfall, 908 offshore wilmington good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Boy that's a hard one to forecast with the timing of the trough and what, if any, energy is left behind. Just another scenario to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Outer Banks are in for a pounding this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: looks headed for a mid atl landfall, 908 offshore wilmington good lord 910 just off OBX. Not good for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Am I reading it right that the energy for that trough is already over Alaska/western Canada today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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