LakeEffectKing Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 EH EM.....Back to Irma.....12z Euro at T+24 is in exactly the same spot as yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, jasons said: Surge has the potential to be much worse than Andrew. Have you read how vulnerable Turkey Creek is to a major hurricane? It's been an elephant in the room for a long time. We know how vulnerable it is to a major hurricane- since it was already hit by a category five hurricane, right? The question is can the surge at that point be 20 feet or greater, and have they started the safe shutdown yet? Andrew peak surge was what, 17 feet? What is the max surge possible at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The 2pm update stays with 175 mph, but ups the pressure from 921 to 922mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, DaveNay said: I saw a documentary on SyFy that says you can detonate a nuclear bomb in the eye, the storm will dissipate. The notion that a nuclear bomb would dissipate a storm is junk science. Sadly, this issue arises from time to time. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, bdgwx said: The 2pm update stays with 175 mph, but ups the pressure from 921 to 922mb. Recon data in terms of peak winds aren't as impressive as they've been but the windfield especially north of the eye is impressively wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 As we await the Euro the thing that scares me the most about Irma is this. Not the tidal surge. Not the flooding. It's long term power outages if the infrastructure takes a major hit. There are literally thousands of high rises from Miami up to Palm Beach (and beyond). Long term power outages strands all those people, many elderly for long periods of time. Excessive heat in closed up apartments, no way up or down in buildings. This could be a rolling disaster of unknown and epic proportions. The key is to keep the eyewall just offshore. This Euro run will be huge to see if the slight west trend continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro seems like it will kiss the coast of Cuba again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: EH EM.....Back to Irma.....12z Euro at T+24 is in exactly the same spot as yesterday's 12z run. Same at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Uh oh -- Euro headed back to Cuba at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 My brother is a reactor operator and I asked him to text his friend at Turkey Point and they have 2 fully equipped shifts rotating every 12 hours. They will remain on site until relief gets there. They are beginning the shut down process (governor said closed, but its called shut down). For emergencies like this, at Diablo Canyon where my brother works, its a process called stranded plant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Relax people, the eyewall never comes onshore Cuba on the 12z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks kind of similar to yesterday's 12z run through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Ridge is breaking down a bit faster at hr 48, but Irma's position is about 25 miles further southwest. I'm thinking the two offset somewhat and we see a LF location very close to last nights 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Starting to max the turn North, wind field expanding and storm deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, katabatic said: My brother is a reactor operator and I asked him to text his friend at Turkey Point and they have 2 fully equipped shifts rotating every 12 hours. They will remain on site until relief gets there. They are beginning the shut down process (governor said closed, but its called shut down). For emergencies like this, at Diablo Canyon where my brother works, its a process called stranded plant. That's a lot of juice to take off line, they've got combined cycle generators to stand in and fill the gap I assume? Probably some excess capacity to perhaps pull off the grid from GA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 folks....enough about the nuclear nonsense. back on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Direct hit on the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Relax people, the eyewall never comes onshore Cuba on the 12z ECMWF Significant WEST trend this run -- at 72 hours it's on the other side of the tip of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 EURO looks like it gives Miami the RFQ at 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Devestating hit for all of South Florida. High end Cat 4 or 5 definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Please don't speculate on the run unless you're looking at high res data. Florida Keys obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallguy001 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Horrible news for Florida on the Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 This is actually worse for Miami because the mean motion is to the North and Miami is in the Right Front Quadraent as the winds there are out of the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Please don't speculate on the run unless you're looking at high res data. Florida Keys obliterated. That hit would reshape the Florida keys. One of my favorite places on earth. Would be major bridge damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 This is why nobody should be blowing the all clear for Tampa, or anywhere else for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Mean 72h Euro error is what, 60-80 miles? This couldn't be in a worse place, for both coasts of FLA at this stage of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yeah so clearly this is not a good run (in terms of impacts) on the Euro. At hour 72 the track is right through the keys and places the higher population densities in the RFQ. The pressure drops 12mb while it's in the straight so the Euro thinks it will be intensifying up to LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, sojitodd said: Do you mean the 'nuclear hurricane' nonsense or the very real concern about the Turkey Point plant? And if the latter, should that be in banter or the evac thread? Thanks. Stuff like nuking hurricanes (or nuclear hurricane) definitely goes in the banter thread. As far as TP plant...it can be either the banter or the evac. Just leave it out of this one, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Irma then tracks right up the spine of Floria, the eye passes right over Orlando late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That hit would reshape the Florida keys. One of my favorite places on earth. Would be major bridge damage. No doubt. Would be tragic. Clear west trend (as anybody could see at 48 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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