40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, TPAwx said: It's going to suck to see the devastation wherever GA/SC landfall ends up and it's going to be horribly impactful on people there, but the in scope populations and economic base are not even close. It's a much worse scenario for MIA to have the Euro track than something close offshore. Yes. Heavy a situation be horrific, yet not a worst case are not mutually exclusive. Track the eye bodily over the southern peninsula, WEST of Miami....that would be more devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Experiencing 90-100 mph gusts, while damaging, is not devastating. That would be forgettable relative to the havoc that a track west of Miami would wreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: As soon as Irma gets to the Turks and Caicos, she will enter an extended area of 30C+ SSTs. Watch out. So it could possibly get even STRONGER because of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Storm looks beautiful on GOES-16 IR. Love looking at the minute by minute images of her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Miami is slightly tucked in SSW of places like FLL and PBI. They might have a worse outcome if there's any westerly component to the storm movement at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 of 1 half dozen of the other. Your scenario yields a weaker LF in GA/SC probably a Cat 1 or 2. The GFS scenario has western eyewall devastation from miami to palm beach without weaking Irma 'much' and LF in GA/SC as a potent Cat 4. Both are horrible scenarios quite honestly. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk It's going to suck to see the devastation wherever GA/SC landfall ends up and it's going to be horribly impactful on people there, but the in scope populations and economic base are not even close. It's a much worse scenario for MIA to have the Euro track than something close offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Wondering the current state of the concentric eyewalls that were seen on microwave this morning. As LEK said, if they remain far enough apart they can remain stable, but I'm interested to see how that structure has evolved. Still there on recon. Last pass had double wing maxima at flight level. Heading inbound for another pass now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Experiencing 90-100 mph gusts, while damaging, is not devastating. That would be forgettable relative to the havoc that a track west of Miami would wreak. But hasn't the GFS been trending closer and closer to the EURO the last few runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Oh boy And the mean rides right up Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Not sure if it was mentioned earlier in this long thread, but 12z GGEM also has the track inland over s.e. FL and the 12z Sunday position is roughly 25 miles west of MIA. From there it slowly emerges back over Atlantic near Cape Canaveral and makes a Monday landfall in western SC. The intensity depictions are clearly too conservative, from the upper component and past experience with GGEM, would estimate high end cat-4 landfall in s.e. FL, cat-2 east of JAX minimal cat-3 before cat-2 landfall in w SC. The Euro-GGEM similarity is not a good sign for Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said: Irma is intensifying now, as I type this Mercy...So could it get beyond the 185 mph sustained winds it had yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: It's going to suck to see the devastation wherever GA/SC landfall ends up and it's going to be horribly impactful on people there, but the in scope populations and economic base are not even close. It's a much worse scenario for MIA to have the Euro track than something close offshore. The Euro track would be horrible. Even the best-constructed buildings could suffer varying degrees of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, JasonOH said: Still there on recon. Last pass had double wing maxima at flight level. Heading inbound for another pass now. As expansive as this wind field is in the process of becoming, it will become impossible not to see multiple maxima on most of the recons from here on out I am surmising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, TPAwx said: Oh boy Looks like we might actually get more than just TS force winds! I'm really crossing my fingers we don't get anything too incredibly bad. My whole town is just trailers/mobile homes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Mercy...So could it get beyond the 185 mph sustained winds it had yesterday? There is no evidence to suggest that it is strengthening at this point, so disregard that user's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said: Irma is intensifying now, as I type this Its been steady state for awhile now. There nothing at the moment to suggest its strengthening. Its 150 kt cat 5 already its basically near the top limit of strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Exactly. Miami is far more prepared for a Cat 4/5 than areas farther north. IN terms of structural stability, perhaps. But don't forget the potential devastating impacts of a 15-foot storm surge on a Florida coastline that is predominantly < 10 feet above MSL up to a mile inland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Has the winds been equal or close on all sides of the eye wall so far during recon? Also, wouldn't it depend on how close east or west the eye wall actually was....a dead center strike would atleast allow the structures some stress relief due to being in the eye, where being just to the east or west there would be no relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Normally we say all the time don't focus on the exact path of the storm because the effects are going to be felt far away from the center. Irma takes this statement to a new meaning. Roughly a 100x100 mile radius of hurricane force winds centered around the eye with a 20 nautical mile wide EF-3 tornado around the eye itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Material swing West with GEFS mean track. Rides up Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 12z HWRF, moving NNW here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Somesand said: Storm looks beautiful on GOES-16 IR. Love looking at the minute by minute images of her. GOES-16 is actually providing 30-second imagery of Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 MIA/FLL/PBI all in the Northern eyewall. Not quite the RFQ, but very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Pronounced secondary eyewall on that last pass. Solid cat 2-3 winds in that wind max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: GOES-16 is actually providing 30-second imagery of Irma. Even better. I just started looking at it this morning. Much better than GOES-13! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Mercy...So could it get beyond the 185 mph sustained winds it had yesterday? Not clear, it could have lower central pressure and a wider expanse of Cat 5 winds or a higher wind max in the eyewall, time will tell which of these eventualities plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Pronounced secondary eyewall on that last pass. Solid cat 2-3 winds in that wind max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Bluescat1 said: Hurricane warning for Jose to hit Northern Leewards as a major hurricane. Hurricane watch, not warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, toller65 said: IN terms of structural stability, perhaps. But don't forget the potential devastating impacts of a 15-foot storm surge on a Florida coastline that is predominantly < 10 feet above MSL up to a mile inland.... If you look at the regional SLOSH models, you'll see that surge isn't the primary concern for mainland Miami and suburbs. The nearby continental shelf and deepwater give the water pushed around by Irma somewhere to go. The biggest concern for surge will be on the barrier islands and along the Miami River. This will primarily be a wind event for Miami proper. The Georgia/SC Lowcountry is much more vulnerable to the water pushed around by a 3-day Cat 5 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Its been steady state for awhile now. There nothing at the moment to suggest its strengthening. Its 150 kt cat 5 already its basically near the top limit of strength... 14 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: There is no evidence to suggest that it is strengthening at this point, so disregard that user's post. Question for you guys. With those intense cloud tops expanding and exploding around the western and northwestern portion of the eyewall, wouldn't that be a signification that it is showing signs of wanting to strengthen again? I am assuming whatever shear it experienced earlier has relaxed, along with the bath water it is about to encounter, some strengthening is definitely possible correct? Or am I completely off here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.