NavarreDon Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 A sobering Local Statement from MFL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KMFL.shtml Here is some of it: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include: - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts across coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, coastal Miami-Dade counties including Biscayne Bay. Potential impacts in this area include: - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant to extensive impacts across immediate coastal Broward and Palm Beach counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 So anyway, getting into the finer details, Irma really doesn't even come close to Cuba, relatively speaking. The turn NNW occurs around 19z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Irma at 60 beginning to turn to the N.. going to be super close to see if the eye stays offshore or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, ny10019 said: I was going to bet on BayNews 9. I would trust Donald Trump more with the weather forecast than I would Bay News 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like the eye stays just off the coast. Here is 06z for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12Z Is maybe 10 miles closer to MIA or so it seems compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 66 hr frame, it looks to be southeast of MIA shores, as depicted in the 6Z same time frame, thus very similar placement and handling. She is 9mb weaker, albeit a formidable storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like GFS is moving closer to the Euro with each run. Depressing, but that is the reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yikes, hour 72 has Miami beach very close to or in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Tropical storm force winds + over roughly 2/3rds of the entire state of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12Z Is maybe 10 miles closer to MIA or so it seems compared to 6z. Yeah it ended up being a very slight NW shift, however in the wrong direction. Pretty sure the Western eyewall is onshore for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Pinellas County, FLA declared mandatory Zone A evac, starting 6am Friday. 160k people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Only at 78 hours does 12z run finally end up west of 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks to ride up the coast more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like slight eastward component to the N movement of Irma at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 The wind field then expands even more as the system taps back into the warm waters off the SE Coast. Look at this projected area of Hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, TriPol said: I would trust Donald Trump more with the weather forecast than I would Bay News 9. lol I can't believe that station is still around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yikes!Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Eventually the ridge builds back over the top, headed for Savannah Georgia again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yeah that is a jump west from 6z as it gets north of Daytona beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Also, at best here you have about 10-20kt of Southerly shear, which would help to flare out the system and increase outflow as it moves North. I haven't seen a GFS or Euro run yet that dramatically increases shear near Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: Pinellas County, FLA declared mandatory Zone A evac, starting 6am Friday. 160k people. Ugh, gotta go pack my bags. And try not to forget the kids. This will be my first ever mandatory evacuation. It -seems- a little extreme given how far east this is projected to track, but oh well. I think we'll try to leave tomorrow late...11pm-2am something like that to try to avoid the mass traffic. I highly doubt they end up evacuating zones B and C, so I don't think we'll be in anybody's hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, ny10019 said: lol I can't believe that station is still around... yea it was bay news 9 lol, was on at the doc office i was at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12z GFS is about as bleak a forecast for the SE you want to see imho. Western eyewall onshore from Mia to Palm Beach while eye remains over water then landfall as potent cane farther N near GA/SC. Really hope this track doesnt verify.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, kenavp said: Ugh, gotta go pack my bags. And try not to forget the kids. This will be my first ever mandatory evacuation. It -seems- a little extreme given how far east this is projected to track, but oh well. I think we'll try to leave tomorrow late...11pm-2am something like that to try to avoid the mass traffic. I highly doubt they end up evacuating zones B and C, so I don't think we'll be in anybody's hair. If you don't start early you inevitably end up with people who "didn't have enough time". If it misses, less cleanup when you get home... if it nails you... at least you and your loved ones have the opportunity to rebuild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 147kt SFMR measured in northeastern eye wall. Still a solid 175mph hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It is unbelievable how the GFS tucks this thing in to the coast like it portrays. That would be devastating for the east coast of FL and then up to Savannah. The GA/SC border seems to becoming a focus for landfall (possibly 2nd landfall area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, kenavp said: Ugh, gotta go pack my bags. And try not to forget the kids. This will be my first ever mandatory evacuation. It -seems- a little extreme given how far east this is projected to track, but oh well. I think we'll try to leave tomorrow late...11pm-2am something like that to try to avoid the mass traffic. I highly doubt they end up evacuating zones B and C, so I don't think we'll be in anybody's hair. It's baffling that they are calling for mandatory evac up in Pinellas, yet my family down in Cape Coral don't even have one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Should note that there would probably be a decent tornado threat across the Carolinas on Monday if Irma indeed tracks through GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Once again a reminder that there is a thread for questions like "should I evacuate?" or "what should I tell my grandmother's cousin to do?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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