NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 It appears that the GFS will stay far away from Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Back to the bahamas with the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 916.4 mb first pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma entering Central Bahamas at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: Enlighten me on why the intensity is so important for track? It's a deep ridge, meaning all levels of the troposphere are more or less "blowing" in the same direction/speed. We are not talking about an easterly wave embedded in the trade winds. Just saying those models may not be reliable with track if they are off on intensity as well. I'm not retarded. I know the overall steering flow with the ridge and trough. I'm strictly talking model reliability. The overall clustering of models has it north of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 At hr 72 the GFS is raking the SE Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Yes, also it's harder to kill an inner eyewall if it's big. ERCs on small eyes are usually pretty quick and seamless. OTOH, eyewall replacement of big eyes are a pain. Ask Matthew. Isabel had an ERC with an eye this big and it never really filled in or clouded over. The inner wall was rapidly absorbed into the larger wall and remnant cloud debris got squashed to the surface layer the same day. Though Isabel did drop to just below Cat 5 intensity for a brief period of time, it reacquire that intensity the following day. These things are unpredictable. Irma also has a large and stable core like Isabel but it's anyone's guess as fluctuations are just part of the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Gfs is pretty far north on the 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, tcb72 said: 916.4 mb first pass How high did they measure the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Concentric eyewalls on hurricane hunter radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: How high did they measure the winds? 151 knots. Surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: How high did they measure the winds? 151 kts FL, 151 kts SMFR but it might be flagged (01, i forget the flag designators) both in NW eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Just saying those models may not be reliable with track if they are off on intensity as well. I'm not retarded. I know the overall steering flow with the ridge and trough. I'm strictly talking model reliability. The overall clustering of models has it north of Cuba Those models don't use bogus vortex techniques. Nothing wrong with assimilated data, hence track modeling should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: When systems are this strong the ERCs can really knock them down. If it undergoes a long duration one it could drop down below 140mph IMO And you can correct me if I am wrong because this is just my opinion but with a cat 5 cane just about any interaction with land, or ingesting a bit of dry air would have a larger effect than it would on say a cat 2. For a cat 5 everything has to be just about perfect or it begins to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, tcb72 said: 151 kts FL, 151 kts SMFR but it might be flagged (01, i forget the flag designators) both in NW eyewall Not flagged. Also there was a 147 and a 140 kts reading, leading credence to the observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jburns said: And you can correct me if I am wrong because this is just my opinion but with a cat 5 cane just about any interaction with land, or ingesting a bit of dry air would have a larger effect than it would on say a cat 2. For a cat 5 everything has to be just about perfect or it begins to weaken. I think it was Patricia which underwent an ERC 2-3 years ago and went from 180 down to maybe 115-120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Well, don't think we have to worry about this run hitting Cuba lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: ERC Let go of your mind... Feel... breathe.. it's going through PR and Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think it was Patricia which underwent an ERC 2-3 years ago and went from 180 down to maybe 115-120? It wasn't that as much as interacting with the Mexican W Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I think it was Patricia which underwent an ERC 2-3 years ago and went from 180 down to maybe 115-120? That pinhole eye was super unstable though, Irma's core is well established and the eye is fairly large. These larger eyes are more resilient in my experience when it comes to replacing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So this GFS run.. Yeah. Anyone find this possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So this GFS run.. Yeah. Anyone find this possible?Details?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Concentric eyewalls on hurricane hunter radar: That radar imagery does not show much of a moat at all between IEW and OEW. The IEW looks very intense with excellent structure. I am not so certain this couldn't just continue to intensify a little more or at least maintain intensity for quite a while. The diameter of the IEW may even have to shrink some before it begins to show signs of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like the eye passes right over the Southern tip of Grand Bahama. I believe Andrew did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: Those models don't use bogus vortex techniques. Nothing wrong with assimilated data, hence track modeling should be fine. Again though the overall consensus is that the core stays north of Cuba. Gotta see what this trough in the east does this weekend and if it is strong enough to erode some of the ridge or if the ridge will hold its ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 North turn begins at hr 96, might miss Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 turning nw at 102, east of 06z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS may be hooking this way north after 96. Hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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