Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, NCWeSU said: There is some high terrain in central Cuba that would impact that circulation significantly, imo. It isn't that high, I posted a topographic map a while ago in this thread, the very high mountains are on the southeast end near Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 31.4" max rainfall already showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Ouch. I have notice every run for several days once it turns north it deepens rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS is out to lunch with the pressure. It's dropping while over Florida. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Might be one of the dreaded who do you evacuate runs. And where does everyone go, if this rides up the eastern third of the state. Would be complete chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The surge along the east/southeastern coast of Florida if this track were to occur would be absolutely catastrophic... don't even want to imagine $$$$ losses given how expensive that real estate down there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaWx said: Question, even though the steering currents are weak as depicted near FL. With the ridge overhead, what is preventing this run from shooting out into the GOM? The ULL thats diving down into the deep south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 This ranks top 3 in most catastrophic GFS runs ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 From a near term perspective it's getting pretty crowded with bullies around Irma atm. In the WV image/loops you can see the strengthening ridge to it's NNW moving the storm, almost stepping on it, to the SW but Irma wants to move more west with the TUTT to it's NW. It just looks like there's a bit of a tug of war going on there, but ridges usually win. There also seems to be some ridging to it's SW that is being enhanced by a fairly strong easterly flow out ahead of what could be Jose in the near future. That flow is almost out running the storm and it looks like the storm is getting pinched in the middle of all of these. It's pretty fascinating watching the loop. The storm truly is getting pushed around like a pinball. Once again in the latest model runs that TUTT to the NW is being delayed lifting out/dissipating. All of this is giving the storm a hard time especially at the upper levels currently I believe. I still think in the short term that TUTT to the NW is what's causing the west trend. That's what I'm watching to give me an idea of when/if this thing gets an opportunity to dance with the incoming trof. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: It isn't that high, I posted a topographic map a while ago in this thread, the very high mountains are on the southeast end near Hispaniola. Less than very high mountains will still significantly impact the circulation of Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Canadian hits southern FL in about the same spot as GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 She's following the eastern coastline.. rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: The surge along the east/southeastern coast of Florida if this track were to occur would be absolutely catastrophic... don't even want to imagine $$$$ losses given how expensive that real estate down there is. It also drives surge into the west coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: This ranks top 3 in most catastrophic GFS runs ever. and also top 3 in making absolutely no sense intensity and movement wise. This is a pure clown run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Blows up the entire east coast of FL, Savanah is next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: This ranks top 3 in most catastrophic GFS runs ever. what's #1 and #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: and also top 3 in making absolutely no sense intensity and movement wise. This is a pure clown run. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Back over water at 192... headed for SC and GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Travels NW into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: what's #1 and #2? I honestly don't know. Maybe this is #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NCWeSU said: Less than very high mountains will still significantly impact the circulation of Irma. If it goes ashore, it doesn't look to go ashore but ride right along it also a circulation this massive wouldn't be affected as greatly compared to a smaller storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Strike 2 is on SAV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Back over water at 192... headed for SC and GA seems to stay mostly over land, luckily.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 CMC is also kinda similar, landfalls southern tip of FL and goes up the coast.. except it's 90 MB higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: GFS is out to lunch with the pressure. It's dropping while over Florida. lol That has occurred before. Or systems barely weaken over S FL due to basically being over water. Wilma barely budged as it crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The ULL cuts off near Greenland acting as a 50/50 block and Irma heads towards the TN valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I've been sitting here defending the GFS for days now against the EURO, but this run makes zero sense whatsoever. In the entire recorded history of tropical systems, has any run hit the tip of Florida and run northward, parallel to the eastern coastline? I've never seen anything like this before and that kind of a hard right turn is absolutely impossible. Perhaps it would rake Cuba more and turn northward toward the Tampa area, but even that's a bit of a stretch. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Got a 969mb storm just east of ATL... dirty side is all over SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: I've been sitting here defending the GFS for days now against the EURO, but this run makes zero sense whatsoever. In the entire recorded history of tropical systems, has any run hit the tip of Florida and run northward, parallel to the eastern coastline? I've never seen anything like this before and that kind of a hard right turn is absolutely impossible. Perhaps it would rake Cuba more and turn northward toward the Tampa area, but even that's a bit of a stretch. Wow. Stop....it's not impossible, and there are many storms that have taken hard turns. They slow down for a few hours and then turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That has occurred before. Or systems barely weaken over S FL due to basically being over water. Wilma barely budged as it crossed. Ok, Wilma made a hard right turn into South Florida when it was anticipated to hit Tampa... but still. Wow. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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