donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: 12z Euro model up and running on tropical tidbits Good continuity so far. The threat of a major or devastating landfall with the highest risk focused on the Southeast is growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Still a lot of time but as of now minimal impacts in the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Through day 4 the Euro is very close to the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Does the storm being further north right now mean anything down the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Does the storm being further north right now mean anything down the line? Any minor differences in that or in where it starts making the turn NW / NNW means hundreds of miles of difference for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Northernmost Antilles continue to get raked on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like a direct hit on the northern US/British Northern Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Does the storm being further north right now mean anything down the line? Further north now would bring it north for landfall. Further south the better chance of a Florida landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Short term track can easily correct itself in 8 days. It can probably do it in 12 hrs also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Hurricane Hugo was why I got interested in weather. What a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Timing right now means a lot, the 12z Euro is a bit faster than 00z. That has upstream implications for trough positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Dangerously close to PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 a bit faster and further west with the Euro compared to the GFS @96 a smidge south too but really nitpicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: Hurricane Hugo was why I got interested in weather. What a storm. Found this Gem. Hurricane force well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Yeah we lived right off East Blvd beside Carolinas Medical Center in Charlotte - it was wild. The stones at the top of our apt building blew out all the windows of the cars parked below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Out to 96 on the EURO and it looks like Irma interacts with northern Hispaniola. That could have an impact on future intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Either something is impeding the northern eyewall or there is some kind of an anomaly going on with the MIMIC sensor. This thing has had a rather bizarre eye since it formed anyway. Maybe a couple of ERC's but there's also been times it just shrinks to nothing then bounces right back 2 or 3 times in a 12 hour period. Almost like it's winking. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/basicGifDisplay.html MIMIC uses various satelite overpassses - there is no "sensor" as it is a lot of different satelites. The last info was quite old - no good overpass for about 9 hrs. We just got a new one and it is very good looking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Inching southwest every run. Maybe a fugiwara with jose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Timing right now means a lot, the 12z Euro is a bit faster than 00z. That has upstream implications for trough positioning. The faster it goes the earlier it might get picked up to turn NW/NNW, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, pazzo83 said: The faster it goes the earlier it might get picked up to turn NW/NNW, correct? I am not 100% sure but I believe the faster it travels the better shot it won't hit Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Morris said: Dangerously close to PR. Hispaniola as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Short term track can easily correct itself in 8 days. It can probably do it in 12 hrs also. Yeah, what's going on right now seems like a bit more than a wobble, but it would not be right to make long term track conclusions. Just something for the "watchworthy" category at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Getting close to Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 120 hrs about 30 mi SW of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's going to have to make a pretty abrupt north turn to avoid Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like a FL Landfall upcoming on the 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Faster but farther south puts it farther away from the trough, so I'm not sure it means a quicker turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: It's going to have to make a pretty abrupt north turn to avoid Florida. It's had no problem doing that the past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Losing support for a northeast LF might be close to done with up here. But let's see what the hunters data does to models I'm not sure there is going to be much, if any, data that will be ingested into model runs tonight. It sounds like this will primarily be a radar investigation for intensity purposes. Once they start dropsondes they'll have data available to models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 51 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Is Irma somewhat north of forecast right now? At the current state of organization the trochoidal wobbles might get pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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