BRSno Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Wonder if the Euro will stay West at 0z. Was actually surprised to see the GFS go east, thought it would have caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's coming for Tolland the heart wants what the heart wants. Probably as a cat 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I'm not surprised at all.. not arrogance - no way. more like fact - the models don't boast that much accuracy at D 4 and 5 .. the so called clustering could be coincidence as much as it was just an easier/conducive pattern this thing is traversing through - either way... Just sayn objectively.. But ..yeeeeah... it's odd just the same. okay... The GFS has been fighting the Gulf idea all along. truth be told, it's never really been much farther west than bifurcating the state a-hole to appetite ...and given any excuse imaginable, it just bounces the track back east of the state. weird. HMON cometh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Nice 100mb pressure differential there at landfall with the high in Maine. Brisk onshore wind one would imagine up much of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Asout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recon 920 mb and 917mb first two passes thru Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 the 8 pm update might get interesting. this thing's present panache is even more terrifying if that's possible - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 pressure bombed... down to 916 ... still 185 winds however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: pressure bombed... down to 916 ... still 185 winds however. Yeah, Would have thought 190's or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: 11? Whooosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: Miami spared the eyewall this run as it goes further east. Does anyone have access to the ensemble members' tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 IF there were and I think there should be a cat 6, this is one of them. 226mph wind at 600'. There are lots of expensive vacation homes in the mountains of the islands in the Caribbean that high or higher. At 226 I don't care what your home is made out of, bye bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Just saw a video of Barbuda on FB. Not sure how to link it holy crap That's almost as good as the fakenado! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Wonder if that was a spin up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 No doubt Barbuda going to get smoked. A 180MPH Cat 5 at landfall, possibly on the northern side. Although that video looks suspect. That woudl have been at least a couple hours ago that light outside and it was still about 130 miles away. Those winds looked to be over 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Does anyone have access to the ensemble members' tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wonder if that was a spin up? I was duped. It was an old video. Not current. I will delete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks. Since it'll be turning north, it looks like it could head up much of the peninsula.....it'll suck for where it enters (keys??) but the strength will deteriorate overland. You know how those Florida mountains rip storms apart.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was duped. It was an old video. Not current. I will delete Very fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: Very fake news. The fakest 2016 Antigua spinup. Kinda cool but I feel dumbfounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, MarkO said: No doubt Barbuda going to get smoked. A 180MPH Cat 5 at landfall, possibly on the northern side. Although that video looks suspect. That woudl have been at least a couple hours ago that light outside and it was still about 130 miles away. Those winds looked to be over 100. That video says 6 million views. Can't be from today with that many hits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: That video says 6 million views. Can't be from today with that many hits.. Yeah saw that too. LOL. Gone viral! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Been watching the St Barth webcam all day. Harbor was basically calm this AM. Conditions going downhill quickly. Signal starting to go in and out but wind really picking up http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 These were the forecasted minimal central pressure readings @ 00z Wed. (currently 916 mb) from the two main globals and two hurricane models from the 18z Sunday runs: Euro-- 965 mb GFS--- 922 mb HWRF- 937 mb HMON- 903 mb None of these models had winds anywhere near 185 mph sustained. The HMON had the highest @ 155 mph, the only one making it to Cat 5. Maybe it isn't such a weenie model after all. We'll see how they do during the next 54 hrs. They were all within 50-75 miles of the current position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Recon 920 mb and 917mb first two passes thru Irma.Must be a hoot flying through a cane. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: Must be a hoot flying through a cane. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Punching thru the eyewall must be a rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Serious shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Big shift east on that 0Z. 18Z GFS shifted east too. Trend is our friend. As of this moment I am happy to see that the possibility of a Florida miss to the east is increasing as of this hour.... I wonder if Irma does miss and heads NNE and hits NC if that increases the chance of some impact up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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