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MattPetrulli

May 15-20 Severe Threat

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For some reason...I think because of the likely location of the highest tornado threat...tomorrow reminds me of some of those late May 2013 days. Have a weird feeling that something big could happen, despite better judgment of things likely being very messy... NAM and 3NAM both support an impressive parameter space tomorrow across Central OK and other areas possibly as well. Regardless, lots of uncertainty regarding tomorrow at this point given possibility for morning convection + potentially early CI. Seems, IF instability and moisture is not cleared out by morning junk, that an enhanced tornado risk could prevail with any supercells in the afternoon before upscale growth likely occurs, have some pause to the tornado threat though as the low-level wind profile honestly does not feature that much turning tomorrow in the lowest 3km AGL, owing to the same 700mb meridional flow we saw today on the VNX and ICT VWPs. But thinking LLVL shear should also be a bit better earlier on (I.e, not as meager), overly a localized area. Of particular concern to me is the likelihood that we get one or more OFBs across central and northeastern OK tomorrow afternoon (which would obviously increase the tornado threat locally). Any higher-end severe threat (very large hail, possibly strong tornadoes) will rely on strong instability developing... In addition... any strong tornado threat should be relegated to supercells interacting with boundaries as it sits right now IMO, perhaps that could change as mesoscale details evolve late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

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3 hours ago, zinski1990 said:

Honestly, I'm not trying to sound like a complete troll to you guys. I never even commented on this thread until about 2 hours or so after the cap broke and storms began firing. I could easily tell by the storm structures and how quickly most of them congealed into each other. It was kind of obvious this day wasn't going to be as big as thought. I'm just a straight forward guy and say it how it is. Look back in the comments and you'll not find anything from me. Sorry guys. Kind of crazy how you all get worked up so quick over a couple simple comments.

You're right, you didn't post in this thread until your bust post.  So it begs the question, do you have a purpose here other than trying to be the first person to call bust?

Discussing problems/potential limiting factors in the midst of the event is ok.  A one or two liner with the "b" word is going to get under people's skin.

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9 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

For some reason...I think because of the likely location of the highest tornado threat...tomorrow reminds me of some of those late May 2013 days. Have a weird feeling that something big could happen, despite better judgment of things likely being very messy... NAM and 3NAM both support an impressive parameter space tomorrow across Central OK and other areas possibly as well. Regardless, lots of uncertainty regarding tomorrow at this point given possibility for morning convection + potentially early CI. Seems, IF instability and moisture is not cleared out by morning junk, that an enhanced tornado risk could prevail with any supercells in the afternoon before upscale growth likely occurs, have some pause to the tornado threat though as the low-level wind profile honestly does not feature that much turning tomorrow in the lowest 3km AGL, owing to the same 700mb meridional flow we saw today on the VNX and ICT VWPs. But thinking LLVL shear should also be a bit better earlier on (I.e, not as meager), overly a localized area. Of particular concern to me is the likelihood that we get one or more OFBs across central and northeastern OK tomorrow afternoon (which would obviously increase the tornado threat locally). Any higher-end severe threat (very large hail, possibly strong tornadoes) will rely on strong instability developing... In addition... any strong tornado threat should be relegated to supercells interacting with boundaries as it sits right now IMO, perhaps that could change as mesoscale details evolve late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

Several cams fire a QLCS right away, which would lead to some beautifully photogenic QLCS tornadoes. At this time this is my biggest concern. My second biggest being morning convection lying around from tonight. However could be an okay day with a slightly less impressive parameter space than today and similar caveats regarding too much convection. Very conditional setup hinging on current storm evolution and storm evolution during the event itself.

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Just now, cmasty1978 said:

Great QLCS action tonight in OK

For sure! Could be a long night into Arkansas and southern Missouri. Definitely going to be some severe wind, tornado threat remains to be seen. 

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27 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

New update looks reasonable, ENH and 5 tornado prob.

Not the new update, that's for this past evening and right now lol

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Stick a fork in any kind of widespread tornado threat today thanks to an ongoing MCS across Texas. Sure, the complex may pose a renewed damaging wind, hail and brief QLCS tornado threat late this afternoon in the DFW vicinity (and areas northeast into eastern Oklahoma), if it can reintensify. There may also be some threat for warm sector cellular activity immediately ahead of the MCS, but any such convection should tend to be undercut by the system, limiting residence time  

Modest updrafts would appear possible in three regimes by late afternoon:

1. Along/near outflow related boundaries left in northwest Texas from the departing MCS. There may be a conditional threat for a rogue supercell, but disrupted environmental conditions should limit the scope of such a threat. (Meaning that you could see one "decent" cell, but widespread severe seems unlikely.)

2. The southern flank of the MCS could, eventually, foster a few stronger semi-discrete updrafts in central Texas.

3. North-central Oklahoma to south-central/southeast Kansas may also see renewed storm development, but the MCS will likely cutoff more favorable airmass recovery. The overlap of supportive CAPE/shear should be confined to a relatively small area, somewhat fragmenting the warm sector, so a robust severe threat seems conditional at best.

IMG_2043.GIF.02ae18247f27088072d267948e751027.GIF

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Agree with Quincy's sentiments. However, NCAR suite has me a bit intrigued, did decent with this morning's precip shield and has storms firing across western OK into central OK through the afternoon evening. Soundings also suggest decent VWP across central OK ahead of storms.

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8 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

I'd say there are pretty good chances that the storm SW of Abeline will end up dropping something.

hooking nicely now...i think it may be on a boundary looking at ABI VAD

better not produce soon...it will moving into southern ABI

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OH NO..not much lead time for the city

 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
117 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 145 PM CDT  
  
* AT 116 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF DYESS AIR   
  FORCE BASE , OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT   
  35 MPH.  

  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS

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6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

OH NO..not much lead time for the city

Velocities aren't all that impressive with it, although its inflow environment is certainly cause for concern as it rides the boundary NE.

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Velocity sig has been weakening the last few scans but it's in a pretty good environment and nicely isolated. Per mesoanalysis, it's working with 55kt bulk shear (25 kt 0-1km), 250-300 m2/s2 ESRH, low LCL's, plenty of CAPE (2500-3000 j/kg). Really good moisture convergence in that area. The cell SW of it bears watching as well.

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Wild ride with that line of storms. Sub-severe here but it poured rain and blew a bit. Just to the south and east probably got it worse, wall cloud was spotted down by Neosho I guess.

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2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Wild ride with that line of storms. Sub-severe here but it poured rain and blew a bit. Just to the south and east probably got it worse, wall cloud was spotted down by Neosho I guess.

Think that line will most probably have QLCS straight line wind concerns and brief tor spin ups as it moves ne thru MO with the main emphasis on wind as I see parameters now.

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KS has destabilized some

 

TOG

 

  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
355 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT  
  
* AT 355 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF  
  MEDICINE LODGE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
 

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te 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
404 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT  
  
* AT 403 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS JUST NORTHEAST OF   
  BALLINGER, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  BENOIT AROUND 430 PM CDT.   xas

 

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temps have warmed into the mid 70's and dew points in the upper 60's over south central and SE KS

CAPES 2500-3000

 


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
402 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0354 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW MEDICINE LODGE    37.30N 98.61W  
05/19/2017                   BARBER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            LARGE CONE TORNADO.   

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