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CGChaser

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About CGChaser

  1. Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    At this point my concern would be geographic location.. GFS in particular is slowing pushing the threat east into that's reaching nigh-unchaseable.
  2. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Agree with Quincy's sentiments. However, NCAR suite has me a bit intrigued, did decent with this morning's precip shield and has storms firing across western OK into central OK through the afternoon evening. Soundings also suggest decent VWP across central OK ahead of storms.
  3. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Weird, but yep, PDS
  4. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    15z OUN ..
  5. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Fwiw, it's a combo with Mosier.
  6. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    True, but it did diminish my beliefs in warm sector shenanigans farther east of dryline in mid-afternoon.
  7. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Thought the same. Especially compared to overnight forecast.
  8. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Some discrepancies tomorrow with regards to moisture return and dryline placement. Looks as though global models & NAM bring the dryline to TX/OK border, into TX on 00z euro. Meanwhile shorter-range guidance (NCAR, TTU, hrrrx) suggests dryline placement farther east with moisture not returning as quickly into W/NW OK.
  9. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    3k, which seems to be a bit stingy on precip since update, sure has the looks of a significant day.
  10. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Similarly HRRRx has initiation ~20z but has essentially one cell through 00z. Admit, I was somewhat perplexed at reading SPC disco this morning regarding moisture issues.
  11. For what it's worth.. majority of GEFS members initiate down along RRV before 00z.
  12. 00z gfs remaining consistent with decent LLJ kicking in sooner than NAM and initation along RRV before 00z.
  13. 12z gfs kicks the LLJ tad sooner this run, also initiates before 00z in this environment. *SE of Wichita Falls* *
  14. Ya I gotcha, thanks. Good points, long day
  15. I mentioned it's a concern, they're right. There are multiple concerns.. as with every system. But to me, at least this run, the NAM trended in favor a greater threat for severe wx than previous runs. All I was pointing out.
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