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  1. For what it's worth.. majority of GEFS members initiate down along RRV before 00z.
  2. 00z gfs remaining consistent with decent LLJ kicking in sooner than NAM and initation along RRV before 00z.
  3. 12z gfs kicks the LLJ tad sooner this run, also initiates before 00z in this environment. *SE of Wichita Falls* *
  4. Ya I gotcha, thanks. Good points, long day
  5. I mentioned it's a concern, they're right. There are multiple concerns.. as with every system. But to me, at least this run, the NAM trended in favor a greater threat for severe wx than previous runs. All I was pointing out.
  6. Wouldn't try to overanalyze the NAM @72hrs that much. I do agree, however still nice low-level curvature for the threat. With regards to <48hr trends, as pointed out already, moisture returns a tad faster after FROPA in Gulf.
  7. Even w/ current modeled sfc low deepening, I would imagine a few tors w/ environment. However, for a more substantial event, I agree.
  8. FWIW 12z euro brings warm front north of OKC for Friday.. Td in OKC of 68 at 00z
  9. More interested in the CAPE nose along the KS/OK border for this evening ~00z-03z
  10. If you're speaking of 12z GFS, directly it would highlight threat from Wichita Falls -> I-35, which is a fine chase region. Not saying this is how it'll happen, but the general area modeled by 12z is fine chasing area.
  11. *returning to chat*
  12. We see this 80% of systems till we're < 72hrs out. It's insane to throw away the system at this time.
  13. And very plausible as well. Though as we see w/ every storm, we're merely just gauging threat days until we're <84hrs to the event when models finally start to converge.
  14. 00z shows the volatility of this even. Slight change in timing. General idea is consistent Thursday/Friday thread somewhere, maybe not from chasing standpoint, but meteorologically
  15. Ya not sure what I'm saying. Good point!