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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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Ahhhh busy Friday at work FTL for following disco / guidance... Lots to catch up on.

I posted yesterday early thoughts of Boston 3-6" and mostly from CCB, have no idea how that's trended and won't opine until I review stuff.

Replies to my prior posts early this morning:

Ray: excellent FINAL map. For Boston (sorry for mby focus... it's the climo I have most experience with), 4-8" is very reasonable. Definite +bust potential if CCB trends more robust. It all comes down to the 6am-1p-ish period and how quickly we can wash out the junk warmth that comes in tonight, and if the mature system lingers a bit more Saturday. Same for northeast MA where 14" might bust low along MA/NH border into northeast MA if CCB really goes to town.

Iceberg: I know you're "just" a hobbyist as am I, but you have sure stepped up your game this season with great posts.

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17 minutes ago, White Rain said:

The NWS map has us over to weenie ridge in 6-8" and places like pepperell as 12-18". Do you think it will play out like that?

I'd be shocked if the gradient was that tight between Princeton and Pepperall. So much is going to depend on what happens after about 06-09z overnight.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

RAP really warmed up..Brings sleet to SNH border and still sleeting at 7:00AM tomorrow

Wouldn't really surprised me. CC melting layer is creeping in that direction, and aircraft soundings were only about -1C above MHT an hour ago. Hard to tell what saturation was since they don't measure it, but it should have been pretty close if not fully saturated.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

ASOS says straight FZRA there now. 0.04" on the FZRA sensor so far (I think the general rule of thumb is take about a third of that value for the radial accretion).

Why is that the case for radial accretion? That's what we measure, right? 

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

The writing is on the wall lol. Stil think we rip 5-10'' tomorrow in the CCB though. 

Front end has looked like sh** to me for about a day now. The key is gonna be after about 2 or 3am tonight. Hpefully things collapse SE nicely between that time and 6-7am...if that happens, then I think a lot of people will pile up the snow pretty quickly. I just want to avoid a scenario where it takes forever to wash out the elevated warm layer until like 9 or 10am.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

ASOS says straight FZRA there now. 0.04" on the FZRA sensor so far (I think the general rule of thumb is take about a third of that value for the radial accretion).

You're referring to the METAR code for accretion...i.e. I1003, correct?

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Front end has looked like sh** to me for about a day now. The key is gonna be after about 2 or 3am tonight. Hpefully things collapse SE nicely between that time and 6-7am...if that happens, then I think a lot of people will pile up the snow pretty quickly. I just want to avoid a scenario where it takes forever to wash out the elevated warm layer until like 9 or 10am.

Yeah you'd hope it'd be a fast transition back to snow with the way the mid-levels look, but going to have to wait and see. If we ping for only a few hours and don't waste a ton of QPF then game on for bigger numbers. Just don't want to waste any of the CCB on pl

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Why is that the case for radial accretion? That's what we measure, right? 

The sensor and study was based off flat surface accretion, which obviously doesn't have the same runoff issues. So they correlated it to radial accretion because that's what we measure.

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Yeah you'd hope it'd be a fast transition back to snow with the way the mid-levels look, but going to have to wait and see. If we ping for only a few hours and don't waste a ton of QPF then game on for bigger numbers. Just don't want to waste any of the CCB on pl

Sleet in the middle of a storm for a couple hours is  actually pretty cool plus it will probably save you power issues.

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