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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Once I really dug into that study I realized how all over the place ice measurements are.

We'll accept 0.5" radial on a wire, but also on your deck or car. But 0.5" on a car only correlates to about 0.15" on a wire.

Makes you really appreciate some of the official ice reports from the 1998 Maine event or the big Montreal one.

I saw the devastation first hand of the Worcester area 2008 storm and that was only an I ch or so

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Take em down

depends the range

if there is not a flash to heavy accumulating snow for a few hours over NE mass late this evening then there really is not a case for over a foot of snow in NE Mass given where the sleet line is already and what current accums are in MY opinion

I may have 1 inch on the N. AND/Andover/LWM line. Now if we flip to heavy snow and we very well may for next few hours then well we could get buried w (toward higher end of forecasts) if everything works out. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Once I really dug into that study I realized how all over the place ice measurements are.

We'll accept 0.5" radial on a wire, but also on your deck or car. But 0.5" on a car only correlates to about 0.15" on a wire.

Agreed! I've been working with ice/wet SWE/utilities for about a year now and it's challenging to find reliable/consistent observations. Discrepancies in how an observer measures ice accumulation makes modeling potential outages more difficult. 

I'd also like a weight component to hourly snowfall observations. Probably too expensive to incorporate, but it's good to be optimistic!

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I hate this fooking storm

loaded with moisture but nothing to stop the waa although the waa precip is kind of shredded, high placement good of course for more e/ne areas but terrible for back here

low to mid 30s with light rain and sleet....it is insulting to even compare this to 20 years ago which got a much bigger area into the goods and wasn't some moist convoluted mess for 18 hours first 

pos system upstate ny so far too

 

total trash

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

I wouldn't take 'em down. Even if we waste like .5'' of QPF on sleet there's still probably about 1" left over for snow at least.

GL with that

its possible but .....we shall see

just hoping for BIG rates picking up and flipping to snow for a few hours shortly...lets do it!

 

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13 minutes ago, Colonel Badger said:

Are you seeing sleet over in Nashua like we are here ?

Yeah. Though it isn't doing much of anything right now. 

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

GL with that

its possible but .....we shall see

just hoping for BIG rates picking up and flipping to snow for a few hours shortly...lets do it!

 

I mean if your range is 12-18'' you might be pushing it but for the more reasonable calls I don't see any reason to waver. 

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I think the key to the bigger totals will be ripping aggregates by like 9z tomorrow. If we don't flip back til 12z It'll probably be a lot of 4-8'' tacked on to whatever fell today which would be a 6-10'' total for most which is in line with a lot of forecasts but not the numbers we all wanted to see out of this. 

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1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Progression of the sleet line has pretty much stopped for the time being, even washing out a bit. Its been back and forth some in Andover, but it looks like mainly snow at the moment

Yeah, it's fighting back S in western Hillsborough County now.

I kind of expect it to squeeze under MHT and then pop out into the Gulf of Maine.

I really didn't bring the sleet north of MHT to PSM.

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4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Progression of the sleet line has pretty much stopped for the time being, even washing out a bit. Its been back and forth some in Andover, but it looks like mainly snow at the moment

hrrr goes nuts in the am. to believe or not to believe?

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2.4" 31.0F

Still -SN, but pushing 1/2SM now.

Have you run any cores yet?

Around an inch here now and light to moderate snow.  It is very wet and heavy though, pure paste.

Feels almost like this first inch is in the 6:1 ratio range.  Temps now down below freezing and roads are very slick and snow covered.

This is a perfect recipe for crappy roads...-SN all afternoon at 33-34F to wet/slush the roads and now down to 31F and that wet slush is freezing up with more snow falling on top.  

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9 minutes ago, educate said:

hrrr goes nuts in the am. to believe or not to believe?

Last storm the HRRR went pretty wild with a lot of 12-18in snow accum and a few higher spots just like it's doing now. So it was overdone and I think it's because ratios were so low from the wet compact nature of the snow. With this storm I don't think HRRR is going to take into account melting on contact and any wash away from rain or sleet mix.  

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