Model Mayhem VII

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Lol not really. BOS got less than anticipated. And deform set up father West.

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the last storm def trended west...no doubt about it. Some of the mesos maybe got a last little tick to the east at the end inside of12-18 hours...so that places like ORH didn't end up mixing, but the overall trend from like 48 hours out was definitely west.

I believe he was mocking a certain poster from CT

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

I believe he was mocking a certain poster from CT

Whooshy whoosh whoosh.   Will is usually good at catching onto those

[Whineminster]

Haha ok I get out now, lol. Whoops.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Whooshy whoosh whoosh.   Will is usually good at catching onto those

Not from MPM...lol. It is so ingrained in me that he complains about east trends.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Remain skeptical for west of 91, these things have to be perfectly timed for us out here. East is a different story since minor corrections in the flow gets the Cape Codder wearing his hard hat again and the Weymouth weenie out of his country boy bell bottom jeans and into his briefs. 

[Ginx snewx]

Sping!

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z EPS better look than the OP.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z EPS better look than the OP.

Not as good as 0z though

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not as good as 0z though

Still looks good

Plenty of time

[Morch Madness]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Remain skeptical for west of 91, these things have to be perfectly timed for us out here. East is a different story since minor corrections in the flow gets the Cape Codder wearing his hard hat again and the Weymouth weenie out of his country boy bell bottom jeans and into his briefs. 

Surprised we haven't seen any Dawn Awakening posts out of Cape Cod, MA recently

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the last storm def trended west...no doubt about it. Some of the mesos maybe got a last little tick to the east at the end inside of12-18 hours...so that places like ORH didn't end up mixing, but the overall trend from like 48 hours out was definitely west.

Tough to offset the 10 tics west with 1 tic east the day of the storm.

10 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

Surprised we haven't seen any Dawn Awakening posts out of Cape Cod, MA recently

Maybe he is trying to use them wisely now.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not from MPM...lol. It is so ingrained in me that he complains about east trends.

LOL.  I'm glad many others understood my jest. 

[SouthCoastMA]

The ECMWF, EPS, GFS ticked W from the benchmark to the NJ coast in nearly every model cycle within 72 hours. It was painful to watch

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

Surprised we haven't seen any Dawn Awakening posts out of Cape Cod, MA recently

Maybe because he's probably getting rain again.

[weathafella]

32 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not as good as 0z though

I didn't pay attention to 0Z but 12Z looked decent to me. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah 12z good look for SNE

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What happenned to the March -nao? Does it live with Santa Claus?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What happenned to the March -nao? Does it live with Santa Claus?

They aren't even in the same domain space.

[weathafella]

FWIW-not much.  Take a look at the H5/H7 track on the 18z NAM.  Perfect to me for the eastern areas.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

They aren't even in the same domain space.

Not about domain, is it real or not? I havent seen it since I was a young lad on the mean streets of NJ. Beginning to think it never existed and I was just hallucinating at the time.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not about domain, is it real or not? I havent seen it since I was a young lad on the mean streets of NJ. Beginning to think it never existed and I was just hallucinating at the time.

Of course they are real. Right?

[Morch Madness]

I feel like if we keep going with these mid level trends one of the models is bound to show a hit. They're all so close as is. Jerry's right, that H7 look is really nice for eastern areas on the NAM.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

I feel like if we keep going with these mid level trends one of the models is bound to show a hit. They're all so close as is. Jerry's right, that H7 look is really nice for eastern areas on the NAM.

Well, the NAVGEM does, but it is the......well, you know.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017031512&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=298

[Morch Madness]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Well, the NAVGEM does, but it is the......well, you know.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017031512&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=298

Sound the alarms

[weathafella]

We don't call it SNOWGAPS for nothin'!

[78Blizzard]

Just now, weathafella said:

We don't call it SNOWGAPS for nothin'!

I did notice that HPC included it in their blended model discussion on this last storm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

FWIW-not much.  Take a look at the H5/H7 track on the 18z NAM.  Perfect to me for the eastern areas.

That book has sailed in my eyes. Nam has been ok this season and it can pick up on stuff even in its long range. One just cant believe every run, just look for clues, needle in a haystack maybe but it caaaan be there. 

[weathafella]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I did notice that HPC included it in their blended model discussion on this last storm.

All kidding aside it's better than it used to be but still solidly on the B team.

[JC-CT]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

All kidding aside it's better than it used to be but still solidly on the B team.

4dvar!

[JC-CT]

Oh, and the GFS is super snowy