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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... given enough lead time, none of it matters.  D 10 (for example) is a veritable crappe shoot regardless; though I would argue that the mean sometimes has more success for fairly obvious teleconnector modal changes.. but that's a different lion -

anyway, sometimes with specific events the operational Euro and GFS will agree, and their respective means are off in their own worlds. The means tend to collapse the other way.

In this case, I just have doubts with this Euro run, despite my own protestations earlier this morning re the Euro at < D 5 - seems this run did the old "electron double-split" how dare you call me out routine on THAT one - haha.

Funny little invisible devils aside ...I'd like to see like everything else do what the Euro is doing before I buy it.  Beside ... the basic argument of 'continuity' is utterly violated on this run, too.  Logic almost dictates holding out there as suspect farther than it is trying to be an outlier -

I had a sense of deja vu when I saw the electron "double split"- like we have seen that before (and not just on the Euro) in storms of past years and ghosts of storms of past years.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
Just now, Paragon said:

I had a sense of deja vu when I saw the electron "double split"- like we have seen that before (and not just on the Euro) in storms of past years and ghosts of storms of past years.

 

yeah it's a joke i made last week or whenever but I think it's rather amusing... Seems to be a nice metaphor for when we get close to "seeing" what's going to happen via these models. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah it's a joke i made last week or whenever but I think it's rather amusing... Seems to be a nice metaphor for when we get close to "seeing" what's going to happen via these models. 

it's the ultimate joke composed by the heisenberg uncertainty principle and delivered so elegantly by the euro lol

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Things have been so consistent for days, I was almost ready for a run like this. I just didn't expect it from the EURO, it literally halfed the precip around here in one run. No jumping here yet, I will wait until tomorrow morning. I just don't want to see the GFS make a dramatic shift east....

Sure, I get it. But even if gfs goes east I dont see it as an issue, unless it just goes to bermuda. I like the eps clusters west of the mean, that is a good sign. Too bad nobody could do a gefs snow map for a weenie comparison against the eps...Ill take a look later at h5 to see how they compare but theyve been really close for 4/5 days now to each other. Basically, Im not worried with a rogue op run. Show me more please to sway my thoughts. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure, I get it. But even if gfs goes east I dont see it as an issue, unless it just goes to bermuda. I like the eps clusters west of the mean, that is a good sign. Too bad nobody could do a gefs snow map for a weenie comparison against the eps...Ill take a look later at h5 to see how they compare but theyve been really close for 4/5 days now to each other. Basically, Im not worried with a rogue op run. Show me more please to sway my thoughts. 

I posted a GEFS ensemble cluster map on the last post of the previous page (16) to compare to the EPS cluster map posted by others.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure, I get it. But even if gfs goes east I dont see it as an issue, unless it just goes to bermuda. I like the eps clusters west of the mean, that is a good sign. Too bad nobody could do a gefs snow map for a weenie comparison against the eps...Ill take a look later at h5 to see how they compare but theyve been really close for 4/5 days now to each other. Basically, Im not worried with a rogue op run. Show me more please to sway my thoughts. 

If this can not be posted, please delete...

KDXR_2017031106_gefs_snow_384.png

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

That EPS was a dream.  

Not much more that I can add that hasn't already been dissected.  The Euro was on the sauce a bit imo.  The lobe of vorticity that it keyed on is really strong so we'll have these odd solutions show up.  Still riding the mean for now with a final track around ACK over to the elbow and at worst the canal.

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