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psuhoffman

March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

CMC FTW?

It started sniffing this potential out and its going to finish it with the last word haha.

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

NW screw job.

IMG_3670.PNG

With all the talk of the DC screwzone, looks like everyone accept DC gets screwed.

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Eurowx algarithms very low

DC: 3 - 6
Leesburg 6 - 8
Higher elevations/west: 8-10
Mid-Maryland and north - Pummeled

I do not have WxBell

 


 

That's an outstanding mid march event here.  I'd take that and run.  Hope it holds.

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It would take very little to spread precip west in these 2 panels. Of course I like the run for my yard but I can easily see this go bigger all over the area

 

XHEfOY.jpg

 

9hlvUz.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very subtle shift @ h5 and evolution would push the precip shield west no problem. It's very compact as is and now the eastern outlier. Seems like breathing room moreso than a disaster. If this was 12z tomorrow I would feel different but all of us are very much in the game for a good storm. 

I hate flirting with wide right, but I'd take it.  For me and you this is close to ideal IF it came to fruition as depicted.  CCB dumps on us for 8-9 hours, and we're done.  I'm not particularly interested in a prolonged event where I am white rain and 35.  

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I think overall there still hasn't been a proper appreciation of the fragility in these kinds of setups. The 12z Euro is certainly a step backward but the run is nearly identical to 0z in evolution. Lead wave is a bit weaker.. ULL is slightly east. With 48+ still to go you could have trends like that run to run cause huge problems in the expectations game through now. 

Otherwise.. still a good track, not that much different than 0z at the sfc as far as that goes. The fall line is a pain.. especially in MArch. 

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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That's an outstanding mid march event here.  I'd take that and run.  Hope it holds.

I think I have old images or something..

 

This is what I saw - This looks too good! 

 

EDIT: HAS TO BE AN OLD RUN! See Bob and others for details!

 

eurowx.jpg

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A pretty good run, all things considered. Of course I'd like a little more IMBY but it will only take a slight change to make this better for more people, especially out west.

My biggest concern was a Miller B that developed just too late for us. Doesn't look like that's happening for now, so that's good.

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4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

NW screw job.

IMG_3670.PNG

Vast majority of that along and east of 95 will not accumulate those numbers. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I hate flirting with wide right, but I'd take it.  For me and you this is close to ideal IF it came to fruition as depicted.  CCB dumps on us for 8-9 hours, and we're done.  I'm not particularly interested in a prolonged event where I am white rain and 35.  

Significant improvement with the surface in both our yards. I'm at or below freezing the whole time and you are 33 at the worst. If it gets below freezing at onset then it would likely stay that way until rates lighten up. I'm not mad at the run after getting the sinking rainstorm feeling last night. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Vast majority of that along and east of 95 will not accumulate those numbers. 

Probably not, maybe more like 4-8" rather than 10+.

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Vast majority of that along and east of 95 will not accumulate those numbers. 

 

Wxbell algorithm flawed and its showing here. I agree, north and west of 95 it seems close to reality, but south east, there's just no way.

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Do you all think there will be virga at onset? Not sure how to tell how dry the column would be. Learning a lot from everyone, thanks!

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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Vast majority of that along and east of 95 will not accumulate those numbers. 

 

With most of the precip happening before 8am and temps right around 32, why do you say that?  Honest question...

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the surface @ 6z and 12z tuesday. Big improvement from last night

qkAJFO.jpg

 

E9lP8v.jpg

Improvement where?  It looks more like verification to me!

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8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

4-8 is generous imo. 2-5 more so. 

I disagree. When an inch of QPF as snow is in the cards, it would probably take temps above 34 to get such low accumulation. Surface temps look to be around 33-34 in the coastal plain following an antecedent cold air mass. I think 4-8" is reasonable with 1" QPF as snow, unless you think the QPF is overdone or there's mixing that wxbell depicts as snow.

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Improvement where?  It looks more like verification to me!

? 0z euro had the surface freezing line was all the way out to FDK @ 12z on tues. I'm not sure what you're even saying/asking. 

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Bernie talked in his video yesterday about the concern about the ULL being so far west. I wonder if it's acting more as a kicker now.

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2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

With most of the precip happening before 8am and temps right around 32, why do you say that?  Honest question...

That heavy slug of QPF from the waa thump is getting weaker by the run and without rates I just don't see how it can really stick pile. Not a true setup for prolonged heavy snow banding. It may be at freezing with temps but it's still mid March. Ground a bit warmer than you think.

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very subtle shift @ h5 and evolution would push the precip shield west no problem. It's very compact as is and now the eastern outlier. Seems like breathing room moreso than a disaster. If this was 12z tomorrow I would feel different but all of us are very much in the game for a good storm. 

I think we're rooting for very different things. If you want a safe path to 4-8" in DC this would be acceptable. But if your rooting for a truly historic dynamic system like yesterday's guidance was all spitting out a lot of today's guidance was disappointing. 

Its not panic time. The threat is still there and this could still break our way but yesterday every run was crushing me with 1.5 qpf plus and today a lot of the models have diverged towards a much more modest event. If we had come from nothing to what we see now I'd probably be happy but I won't lie when everything was showing 15-25" her yesterday a consensus of 6-10 (if that on the euro) is a disappointment. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

That heavy slug of QPF from the waa thump is getting weaker by the run and without rates I just don't see how it can really stick pile. Not a true setup for prolonged heavy snow banding. It may be at freezing with temps but it's still mid March. Ground a bit warmer than you think.

Overnight timing and antecedent cold temps - I think you're selling those short. But I do agree a decent amount with you. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

That heavy slug of QPF from the waa thump is getting weaker by the run and without rates I just don't see how it can really stick pile. Not a true setup for prolonged heavy snow banding. It may be at freezing with temps but it's still mid March. Ground a bit warmer than you think.

? DCA gets .8" between 6z and 12z Tuesday. Thats 1" per hour rates at least.

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