dendrite Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Right, because the precipitation is showing the previous 6 hours. I guess my question is, do we expect to find the heaviest precipitation to the south of the best vvs? Is that H7 lift? I mean the omega shifts. What does the 17hr lift look like? You have drier air working into the low levels as well so it's possible the storm ends as virga for some. N flow in the low levels will drift the precip a bit S-SE from the H7 level too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Trending towards an advisory down here. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 DIT has gone quiet. This was always the risk and why I kept 1"-3" yesterday late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: DIT has gone quiet. This was always the risk and why I kept 1"-3" yesterday late afternoon. Erin go snowless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like a quick 1-3" WAA snow early tomorrow AM followed by scattered flurries under heavier echoes till early afternoon up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: DIT has gone quiet. This was always the risk and why I kept 1"-3" yesterday late afternoon. I just posted a map. What are you talking about? Model noise. Some stuff south some north. What a weenie. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We benign 1-3", 3-5" in S & E areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS south too. At this rate it's flurries and dim sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS is south too...don't think I'd go more than about an inch or two for the pike and probably advisory for most of the rest of the region to the south...though pretty close to south coast could see low end warning if they get a nice band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's kind of amazing though that there has literally been zero consistency on the models...we get one suite that comes in more amplified, and then it goes back suppressed next run, and then amplified again the run after that...it's done that literally 4 or 5 cycles in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 SW CT special on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's kind of amazing though that there has literally been zero consistency on the models...we get one suite that comes in more amplified, and then it goes back suppressed next run, and then amplified again the run after that...it's done that literally 4 or 5 cycles in a row. I think that's where you guys have to use your knowledge and experience to make a call on what you think will happen....you and Scott have been making comments about how you feel the heavier precip should be a little north of where the models are showing it...I think you go with your gut on this one and forecast what you feel should happen..since the models cant seem to agree on anything at such a short lead time. What does the Meteorology of the whole thing say?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That 1-2 zone may even need to extend down into Northern Connecticut within about 10 miles of the Mass border if this latest trend is in fact correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think that's where you guys have to use your knowledge and experience to make a call on what you think will happen....you and Scott have been making comments about how you feel the heavier precip should be a little north of where the models are showing it...I think you go with your gut on this one and forecast what you feel should happen..since the models cant seem to agree on anything at such a short lead time. What does the Meteorology of the whole thing say?? It says (or at least my interpretation) that you'd think it would be a little more north than shown. However, clearly because we have no good, tight wound up circulations...the forcing is more linear, or horizontal. Not a big push north. It may be a little more north than show from the GFS or NAM...but the trend has been south and it seems the euro was drinking again. Once in awhile it has a few too many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think that's where you guys have to use your knowledge and experience to make a call on what you think will happen....you and Scott have been making comments about how you feel the heavier precip should be a little north of where the models are showing it...I think you go with your gut on this one and forecast what you feel should happen..since the models cant seem to agree on anything at such a short lead time. What does the Meteorology of the whole thing say?? The upper air would argue a bit further north...vortmax track is pretty decent actually for a lot of SNE. The trouble is there are some factors offsetting it...first one is speed. The trough is moving very fast. The second is some dry air to north...but it's not as bad as I've seen in other setups. I won't be surprised if this bumps back north a little in the waning hours tonight...though I don't think it will come all the way back to what the Euro had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Maybe the more interesting part, is the squall potential in ern areas near 00z. Could be a surprise 1-2" if it extends into metro BOS. North shore and far east pym county including the Cape have the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The upper air would argue a bit further north...vortmax track is pretty decent actually for a lot of SNE. The trouble is there are some factors offsetting it...first one is speed. The trough is moving very fast. The second is some dry air to north...but it's not as bad as I've seen in other setups. I won't be surprised if this bumps back north a little in the waning hours tonight...though I don't think it will come all the way back to what the Euro had last night. Great post. So those ideas you have is what I would go with if I had to make a forecast at this moment. All very good points..Vortmax track is good for alot of the area/upper air would argue further north. I'd go with that as the off set to the wobbling nature of the modeling. Unless ofcourse the whole thing goes south south south on Euro and at 18z. But what do I know lol.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Great post. So those ideas you have is what I would go with if I had to make a forecast at this moment. All very good points..Vortmax track is good for alot of the area/upper air would argue further north. I'd go with that as the off set to the wobbling nature of the modeling. Unless ofcourse the whole thing goes south south south on Euro and at 18z. But what do I know lol.? Yeah I'd prob take an RGEM type solution right now...it has 1-2" in the pike region and then 3-5 for CT (except maybe 1-3 in far N parts)...maybe some warning lollis near Merritt and south coast and over to Cape. Euro will def come south...it was zonked at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 As expected. This was never in the cards for my hood. Enjoy it S SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd prob take an RGEM type solution right now...it has 1-2" in the pike region and then 3-5 for CT (except maybe 1-3 in far N parts)...maybe some warning lollis near Merritt and south coast and over to Cape. Euro will def come south...it was zonked at 00z. I agree with those amounts totally as of now. I would be in the 3-5 inch area(thinking between 3 and 4 inches would be a decent call for my house). Yes, Euro will be interesting at 1:00 pm to see just how far south she comes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The upper air would argue a bit further north...vortmax track is pretty decent actually for a lot of SNE. The trouble is there are some factors offsetting it...first one is speed. The trough is moving very fast. The second is some dry air to north...but it's not as bad as I've seen in other setups. I won't be surprised if this bumps back north a little in the waning hours tonight...though I don't think it will come all the way back to what the Euro had last night. That is probably the biggest limiting factor I see. We have lift north of the Pike, but we don't have any saturation in the DGZ. RH climbs above 80% only to about the Pike, north of that is solidly unsaturated according to the 12z GFS. You can have all the lift you want through the DGZ, but if there is no moisture you get no snow. And because it is so progressive, it doesn't have time to advect the moisture in. Saturation doesn't really improve until the squally weather arrives with the front, as Scott alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That is probably the biggest limiting factor I see. We have lift north of the Pike, but we don't have any saturation in the DGZ. RH climbs above 80% only to about the Pike, north of that is solidly unsaturated according to the 12z GFS. You can have all the lift you want through the DGZ, but if there is no moisture you get no snow. And because it is so progressive, it doesn't have time to advect the moisture in. Saturation doesn't really improve until the squally weather arrives with the front, as Scott alluded to. The good thing is that we don't have screaming NW winds at 850. A plus for once, unlike some other events that screwed those areas. As you said...we can't quite advect the good moisture in until it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The good thing is that we don't have screaming NW winds at 850. A plus for once, unlike some other events that screwed those areas. As you said...we can't quite advect the good moisture in until it's too late. Which is a huge difference between the GFS and Euro. Euro brings 80% DGZ RH up to CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The good thing is that we don't have screaming NW winds at 850. A plus for once, unlike some other events that screwed those areas. As you said...we can't quite advect the good moisture in until it's too late. Prob lots of awful snow growth after a good period of virga for our latitude...and we take 6 hours to accumulate 1.5" or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That is probably the biggest limiting factor I see. We have lift north of the Pike, but we don't have any saturation in the DGZ. RH climbs above 80% only to about the Pike, north of that is solidly unsaturated according to the 12z GFS. You can have all the lift you want through the DGZ, but if there is no moisture you get no snow. And because it is so progressive, it doesn't have time to advect the moisture in. Saturation doesn't really improve until the squally weather arrives with the front, as Scott alluded to. Even down here the GFS has that ugly not saturated look in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Lots of worrying over nothing when things end up 30 -40 miles north of modeling like usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of worrying over nothing when things end up 30 -40 miles north of modeling like usual you may not score this victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of worrying over nothing when things end up 30 -40 miles north of modeling like usual you have been correct a lot recently though, but this one could even fool coastal peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: you may not score this victory No ones trying to win anything. It's just funny how some of you knee jerk with every little bit of model noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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