TheSnowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ya Know 10 Days Ago I got Made Fun Of by Ray for saying "We've got 2 chances at Clippers coming up!" With an answer of "go outside and wait for it." WELL WELL WELLLLL.... Looks Here! Means As Predicted.... it's because I AM NOT HOME!!!!! (In The Netherlands until Tuesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, TheSnowman said: Ya Know 10 Days Ago I got Made Fun Of by Ray for saying "We've got 2 chances at Clippers coming up!" With an answer of "go outside and wait for it." WELL WELL WELLLLL.... Looks Here! Means As Predicted.... it's because I AM NOT HOME!!!!! (In The Netherlands until Tuesday). Bang out a tune on the box with the weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z GFS is another consistent run with over 8" of snow for Cape and Islands. Due to the nature of the precipitation being heavy at times, and 850mb temps plummeting I expect the rain to start will switch over to very heavy snows and accumulating right away once the turnover happens. I think the March sun angle is overrate this time in March but later this month it becomes more of a hassle for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 18z GFS is another consistent run with over 8" of snow for Cape and Islands. Due to the nature of the precipitation being heavy at times, and 850mb temps plummeting I expect the rain to start will switch over to very heavy snows and accumulating right away once the turnover happens. I think the March sun angle is overrate this time in March but later this month it becomes more of a hassle for snowfall. It's still a problem on March 10th but luckily the bulk of this snowfall will be falling during the overnight and early morning hours and ending early, not peaking around 12-4PM so we have that going for us. But you will be a little later than timing compared to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ryan's station latest forecast, NBC Connecticut . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Thats a conservative map from aconservative pro, but I understand his concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Actually, mine would be the same except upping by 1" to 3-5" then striping my 5-7" paintbrush between merritt to dxr on eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, TheSnowman said: Ya Know 10 Days Ago I got Made Fun Of by Ray for saying "We've got 2 chances at Clippers coming up!" With an answer of "go outside and wait for it." WELL WELL WELLLLL.... Looks Here! Means As Predicted.... it's because I AM NOT HOME!!!!! (In The Netherlands until Tuesday). Still garbage here, which is all I care about. All eyes on next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm curious to see the 0z RGEM, its been pretty steadfast in hanging an IVT here with the 18z run producing 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thats a conservative map from aconservative pro, but I understand his concerns. I could see higher amounts in S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm still leery of this upper air in the back of my head. Normally, I'd think it would produce better than models are showing. I could see it overperforming. We'll see if we get a bump north at 00z here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still leery of this upper air in the back of my head. Normally, I'd think it would produce better than models are showing. I could see it overperforming. We'll see if we get a bump north at 00z here. If you showed me the upper air pattern and no QPF, no way would I think it would struggle to pike like models show. Hrrr also has tickled north. Really tough call from pike down to BDL over to here (old KNZW). I want to lean north too, but I'm aware of the caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Ryan's station latest forecast, NBC Connecticut . Way too low on the South Coast. Models have like 0.75" QPF for SE CT/RI/E LI. Someone in New London County or on the North Fork may pull an 8" spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, nzucker said: Way too low on the South Coast. Models have like 0.75" QPF for SE CT/RI/E LI. Someone in New London County or on the North Fork may pull an 8" spot. Some models do... but certainly not all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, nzucker said: Way too low on the South Coast. Models have like 0.75" QPF for SE CT/RI/E LI. Someone in New London County or on the North Fork may pull an 8" spot. You can't really be an armchair QB hours after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nam came north. Looks like decent event s coast and hopefully a couple here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I wouldn't expect very high ratios on the coast either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Not exactly 0.75" liquid for SE CT/RI/E LI on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I wouldn't expect very high ratios on the coast either Yeah - but there's an OK snow growth sig on the I-95 corridor. They'll battle some warmth at 2m which could negate the fluff factor a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah - but there's an OK snow growth sig on the I-95 corridor. They'll battle some warmth at 2m which could negate the fluff factor a bit. Thanks. I thought your map was reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 NAM did bump north a bit, but hasn't really increased QPF much. It is interesting to see how much it has bumped QPF over parts of western PA, which have gone from from .3 to .6 in places. I wonder if any of that will translate east in overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Thanks. I thought your map was reasonable TBH it's a tough one since there will be a band of pretty heavy snow. As Will and Scott said there is a nice looking synoptic look but the precip struggles to get too far north. I'm surprised some of the hires models (WRFs/4km NAM etc) aren't spitting out some of their crazy totals like we normally see on these small mesoscale bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Ohhh - finally a WeHa jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Thanks. I thought your map was reasonable Yea, it was. I jumped over an inch difference from mine lol smh. Just think there could be a 4+ swath somewhere to highlight the potential but thats nitpicking a publicly aired map where most dont know difference between 4 and 6" anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: TBH it's a tough one since there will be a band of pretty heavy snow. As Will and Scott said there is a nice looking synoptic look but the precip struggles to get too far north. I'm surprised some of the hires models (WRFs/4km NAM etc) aren't spitting out some of their crazy totals like we normally see on these small mesoscale bands. It is odd that the wettest model is probably the ukmet followed by the jma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 So what is BOX seeing? I think they're optimistic by about 25-30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Ohhh - finally a WeHa jackpot. Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So what is BOX seeing? I think they're optimistic by about 25-30%. That's what every model shows. They're actually a bit too conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8-12 in far SE Mass and the islands? I'll bet that doesn't happen imo. That seems way to high to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's what every model shows. They're actually a bit too conservative Uh, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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