Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Monday could actually be kind of a sneaky chilly day with the BDF. But I'd watch Wednesday as a torch day too...we'll see. It's 6 days out, so it could change, but we may have a low to our north in Quebec trying to give us westerly flow with warm thicknesses. I think the period Feb 24-26 should be watched...could be a overrunning/SWFE type system if it goes right. So you still like the idea of a winter storm threat in SNE during that period? Seems like that's our next window after later next week chills down. And then looks like we have fun right into Mid March with mojo going from 8-1 Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 A little bit of a meat grinder signal in the long range with both east and west coast ridging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Long range is sort of interesting. Next weekend may be a cutter, but sort of a -EPO look. That also comes with a ridge off the coast....so we know what that means. Might have to gamble....but at least a cold source will be there. Does the 23/24th for next week still show up as a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Does the 23/24th for next week still show up as a possibility? I think it's more like 25-26 or so. However it looks like it could be a messy storm. Maybe rain SNE/coast and snow to ice well inland. But, it's early and other models have different idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it's more like 25-26 or so. However it looks like it could be a messy storm. Maybe rain SNE/coast and snow to ice well inland. But, it's early and other models have different idea. That's about all we can hope for at this range. I suppose the way this season is going this could be the last hurrah...or not. Been dreaming about a 1993 March Superstorm for a few nights now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 I wouldn't trust the extended at this time even more so than the usual caution for those sort of time leads... There are conflicting signals everywhere ...teleconnectors to operational runs, and back and things could break just about any direction ..warm...cool, wet dry or even white... Both agencies are trending warm in the general teleconnector layout. Meanwhile, we have a whopper MJO wave passing through phase 8 ...and the extended outlook for that particular phenomenon actually kills it and re-emerges a new wave back in 7 ...threatening to repeat the cycle. That's just a pig ton of tropical/subtropical forcing in the Pacific... Which lends to the operational guidance of -EPO ridging as a correlation. All the operational runs have it, but of course vary some on timing, amplitude and placement. The sum of which connotes a cold dump into the Canadian shield; preparatory in its own regard. Yet the teleconnectors as they are derived from the GEFs through yesterday are not nearly as emphatic about any -EPO ridging. The EPS derivatives ...I don't even know if those are calculated and presented the same way; never could get an answer to that. But just from what I can surmise looking at the mean, there is a reasonable expression for ridging near the Alaskan sector. Just not as amplified as the operational - which sort of backs us into a similar conclusion that for whatever reason, the means of either are not as interested as the operational for that all important feature. Putting all that into the crucible and melting it down is like going to the soda machine dispenser and filling one's cup with 1 second under each flavor including the cool-aide. Personally ... I have always thought the MJO was over-rated. It's useful (more so) when the surrounding hemispheric medium is in constructive interference - when such is the case, it looks like the key-stone holy grail of mass-field indicators. But when the opposite is true ...seems the wave either hides in the incoherence circle, or comes out at little to midland strength and isn't really correlating nearly as well. Not sure which side of the interference spectrum this particular wave resides, but seeing as it is soo strong as of last check, and in phase 8, and the Pac recently was in +PNA mode... stands to reason that it may be more effectual on the pattern. interesting... It's possible that the -EPO gets more coherent in future modeling cycles and things just up and break colder after a weak of this banal mild pattern we seem destined for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wouldn't trust the extended at this time even more so than the usual caution for those sort of time leads... There are conflicting signals everywhere ...teleconnectors to operational runs, and back and things could break just about any direction ..warm...cool, wet dry or even white... Both agencies are trending warm in the general teleconnector layout. Meanwhile, we have a whopper MJO wave passing through phase 8 ...and the extended outlook for that particular phenomenon actually kills it and re-emerges a new wave back in 7 ...threatening to repeat the cycle. That's just a pig ton of tropical/subtropical forcing in the Pacific... Which lends to the operational guidance of -EPO ridging as a correlation. All the operational runs have it, but of course vary some on timing, amplitude and placement. The sum of which connotes a cold dump into the Canadian shield; preparatory in its own regard. Yet the teleconnectors as they are derived from the GEFs through yesterday are not nearly as emphatic about any -EPO ridging. The EPS derivatives ...I don't even know if those are calculated and presented the same way; never could get an answer to that. But just from what I can surmise looking at the mean, there is a reasonable expression for ridging near the Alaskan sector. Just not as amplified as the operational - which sort of backs us into a similar conclusion that for whatever reason, the means of either are not as interested as the operational for that all important feature. Putting all that into the crucible and melting it down is like going to the soda machine dispenser and filling one's cup with 1 second under each flavor including the cool-aide. Personally ... I have always thought the MJO was over-rated. It's useful (more so) when the surrounding hemispheric medium is in constructive interference - when such is the case, it looks like the key-stone holy grail of mass-field indicators. But when the opposite is true ...seems the wave either hides in the incoherence circle, or comes out at little to midland strength and isn't really correlating nearly as well. Not sure which side of the interference spectrum this particular wave resides, but seeing as it is soo strong as of last check, and in phase 8, and the Pac recently was in +PNA mode... stands to reason that it may be more effectual on the pattern. interesting... It's possible that the -EPO gets more coherent in future modeling cycles and things just up and break colder after a weak of this banal mild pattern we seem destined for. The EC ensemble mean looked like a decent -EPO developing. I suppose heading into March...that could be a good thing. a -NAO which would be more ideal looks non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The EC ensemble mean looked like a decent -EPO developing. I suppose heading into March...that could be a good thing. a -NAO which would be more ideal looks non-existent. Ugh, a -nao closing out winter would be ideal. But it wont form until mid april just in time for the cutoff rain season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On a West Coast note, the 6Z GFS suggests that they get that dam fixed soon and well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Sneaky cold shot Monday and Tuesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Decent model agreement for a storm day 9/10 - something to at least keep an eye during this stretch. Could very well be a cutter as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Call me crazy but I am still looking at Feb 24th -27th for something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Call me crazy but I am still looking at Feb 24th -27th for something big. Call it February snow fatigue, but something tell me that we won't come out of it with just rain up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 A lot of risk for that storm to be warm given the deep trough into the center of the CONUS and no Atlantic blocking....but there's a chance we could get a decent high spilling cold over the top too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 ens show it, and gefs is a colder miller B type. Something to look forward to over the wknd to see if the signal still there inside D6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 GEFS look like EC ensembles in the 11-15 day. -EPO but offshore ridging threatening for messy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS look like EC ensembles in the 11-15 day. -EPO but offshore ridging threatening for messy storms. We like those out this way. Playing with fire is the preferred track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 More NNE...their year. Two more warning events, and I'll end happily near climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 More NNE...their year. Two more warning events, and I'll end happily near climo.How long has it been since we had a widespread storm from DC to Maine? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: How long has it been since we had a widespread storm from DC to Maine? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk We usually need an NAO for that..was just thinking about it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 There's a lot of snow left in the Feb 25- Morch 15th time Jamstec monthlies show cold Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 One of the Jan 11 systems did well along the corridor but if not the full DC to Boston coverage then its Boxing Day, regardless of any exhaust in NEMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: One of the Jan 11 systems did well along the corridor but if not the full DC to Boston coverage then its Boxing Day, regardless of any exhaust in NEMA. Boxing day missed DC and BALT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Boxing day missed DC and BALT hmm...well then Feb 03 it is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Feb 13, 2014 was a big hit from DC to Maine. Coast had some taint but everyone did pretty well...far SE areas kind of got screwed...but there's always a screw zone in some spot in every system...even the Feb '03s and March '93s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 We're getting increasing signals of that day 8/9 system going underneath us as the block should help to force it south . Lot of winter left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Maybe we could get excited about track the first 60 degree Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We like those out this way. Playing with fire is the preferred track. Yeah, W of the River we prefer swfe over the Miller family. More reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 EC ensembles looks pretty nice late in the period. I'm not very optimistic about the Feb 25-26 threat before that, but can't rule out a change for the better on that....if we can get the canadian prairies high to press further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, W of the River we prefer swfe over the Miller family. More reliable. Well, only so much a swfe can produce but yea. For big events though, I will take the thick original Miller A, much prefer it over it's watered down B cousin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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