Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Entertainment run amok! Last week, then over night last night, now this almost 'too good to be true' clip blizzard for eastern New England Monday morning,.. then, a planetary signal for Thursday is still being monitored. This was all pretty well advertised. The teleconnector modes/modalities have been been flagging this period for over a week (and going back even further considering a-priori usage of other tools), as the PNA surged and continues to do so... perhaps maxing out around +3 or even +4 standard deviations. Adding to the fray...the NAO has been very persistently modeled to enter a negative phase state centered on this next week. We would likely end up with an active pattern regardless of this particular teleconnector, but ..having it in place statistically backs that much more. The combination of those two really converges on the OV/MA/NE regions for negative mid and u/a counter-balancing anomaly, ... It is no wonder that these systems are finding their greatest amplitude as they pass through these latitude/longitudes.. Also, the MJO is really powerful in phase 7 and surging even stronger (if that is possible) into Phase 8. It's hard to know what is the chicken and egg in the relationship with the PNA, but ...sufficed it is to say, the strong Phase 7-8-1-2 MJOs correlates positively with western N/A ridging, which immediately then subtends a negative counter-balance couplet down stream of eastern N/A. So ...long of the short, there is 7 to 10 day period of strongly integrated (S-N) Pacific that correlates to an active pattern here. So... here we go... A new thread to freshen points of views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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