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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

'sides, I'm way more sobering than Scott on here - I know that! 

Not that I want to incur Ray's wrath - 

Well, ...I don't personally count the subtle polish remover overnight runs that rubbed chaffing, as much more than mere giga motions along a route to whatever materializes in terms of amplitude... but I suspect we earn more "curvi" linear forms of that than the flat sonic speed variety. Although, I still think we're going to have to deal with the interminable subtropical band some - that's probably going to be a permanent fixture that gets lost/absorbed into the summer tapestry in the far future..  

Anyway, to me I see this as 24 hours and counting... I need the three days, personally, and I'm not wavering on that, because that would beat the standard model f-up cut-off time standard they've earned this winter.  Stick with it for more awhile...

At a more philosophical level, ...we're colder now.  That's not as silly as it sounds. That's been a big bugaboo going on a month's worth now... as cold has been routinely backing off at least excuse. That appears to finally be a bucked trend.  Tomorrow will succeed at this point!  

Now, we see some semblance in the GEFs for -NAO for 3 to 5 days a week from now.  And this is more than less mapped reasonably well from what I gather of the Euro's ensembles from the piss-poor resource I use...  fwiw.  But, the tandem of the two combined with these operational tempos, all told and the cold now and getting colder, I almost wonder if the cutter bomb N of Superior next week doesn't help trigger a more aggressive if transient west-based augmentation around said -NAO. 

These are the kind of things to consider, and they may or may not be presented on any current tools.  In 2005 I saw blowing snow off an office building at 1:45 in the afternoon on April 12th...  It's just the way seasonal lag works.  You'd never expect that or see it in the first week of September, but going the other direction, the Earth resists seasons and that lapses affairs pretty dramatically - or in the least, gives the green late for late expressions on the ends of seasons.  Duh.

No wrath, John....just kidding with him...he knows that.

 

I have said countless times...while I think this blocking idea holds some weight, I will not be surprised if it isn't that extreme.

No argument-

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3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

9 days

Amazing run but its 1 run.

If the block is indeed real, watch out.

What 00z giveth, 12z will likely take away!  I guess 3' of fantasy snow is better than none at all.  At the very least, this continues the model trends suggesting the prospective -NAO might actually be real, this time.  Right now, I can't help but to be quite skeptical.  I guess one could make the case we are somewhat overdue for another KU March blizzard and a return to real sustained blocking.  Only time will tell.  Here's to hoping!  

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was there EPS support for the 1888 storm and also for the blocking?

It had something there, but not the op gone wild. There is also blocking support, but despite that...we also don't want a crappy pacific either. That's also one to watch. But with Canada being pretty chilly....the blocking would certainly help.

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The d7 threat is still there which is more realistic to track than the Euro D9 superstorm reincarnation. 

But it is still the "get me to Monday and we'll talk" variety. Amazing how completely different the GEFS and EPS are now. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The d7 threat is still there which is more realistic to track than the Euro D9 superstorm reincarnation. 

But it is still the "get me to Monday and we'll talk" variety. Amazing how completely different the GEFS and EPS are now. 

That day 10 threat, if it verified, will dig less than that.....that cutoff would end up closer to Phily or NYC, rather than N VA.

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21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe the Tippy Euro overamplification in the NW Atlantic? 

Look at the setup. That is just salivating. The cold dump prior with the PV north of New England. That 850 TROWAL look and temp gradient. H5 digging for oil overhead. Man. 

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6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That actually could happen. Can also see right behind it the big torch coming for middle and late month. Many times in spring we get this massive snowstorms and then the warmth comes in a day or 2 later..like April 97

To keep it real, it stayed chilly in 1997 after the blizzard but keep in mind that normals are over 50.   With the exception of one warm day on 4/7 it was cool most of the month until the final week.

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