CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, not here....but I think your comment about next year's pending nino becoming strong is a bit "strongly" worded....I mean, I see no reason to think that. Yes, R 1.2 leading the way often portends stronger events, but is very premature to be reading too much into that...the region is so malleable. Well I said potent to avoid strong...lol. I would say moderate could be seen as potent. I also said it's very early...but some signs IMO point to things getting off nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Wait - there's a new warm ENSO coming? when did that happen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well I said potent to avoid strong...lol. I would say moderate could be seen as potent. I also said it's very early...but some signs IMO point to things getting off nicely. What signs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wait - there's a new warm ENSO coming? when did that happen - Speculative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 I don't think (personally) blocking is going to help this geriatric winter to be blunt. If the NAO tanks and loads a deep cyclone into western Ontario underneath some west-based block, I don't necessarily see the heights in the deep south/SE as conveniently not offering resistance. It will just mean one helluva a compressed flow and you think the velocities have averaged fast? - wait 'till we drill in a -3 SD, 500 mb anomaly along the 40th parallel. It's why I really think it's over. I do because those broader canvas issues are not going anywhere because they appear global in scale (hemispheric) as shown but what Scott and I were just talking about/products..etc. Impossible? no. Less likely, yes. I think if this winter manages to produce down the stretch here, it's going to have to be a 'get lucky' deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Speculative.... Here or from offices? Head scratching, ... the climatology for ENSO would favor not returning directly into a warm state - that's what I've read. Maybe that's changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't think (personally) blocking is going to help this geriatric winter to be blunt. If the NAO tanks and loads a deep cyclone into western Ontario underneath some west-based block, I don't necessarily see the heights in the deep south/SE as conveniently not offering resistance. It will just mean one helluva a compressed flow and you think the velocities have averaged fast? - wait 'till we drill in a -3 SD, 500 mb anomaly along the 40th parallel. It's why I really think it's over. I do because those broader canvas issues are not going anywhere because they appear global in scale (hemispheric) as shown but what Scott and I were just talking about/products..etc. Impossible? no. Less likely, yes. I think if this winter manages to produce down the stretch here, it's going to have to be a 'get lucky' deal. That's fair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Here or from offices? Head scratching, ... the climatology for ENSO would favor not returning directly into a warm state - that's what I've read. Maybe that's changed. I just looked at early guidance...and speculated warm neutral or weak nino....Scott is hedging stronger....or "potent"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 It's "amazing" this did nothing for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just looked at early guidance...and speculated warm neutral or weak nino....Scott is hedging stronger....or "potent"...lol With the loss of Price to Tommy John .. you starting fantasy prep for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What signs? Well very warm eastern regions, warm waters pooling up below. I'm not saying to plow into the Shawsheen yet...just talking weather. Hopefully it's just some kelvin wave or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ginx windex event tomorrow being modeled. Quick whiteouts and 1 inch squalls around Yea saw that for the lucky, did you see the Syracuse I 80 disaster, geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: With the loss of Price to Tommy John .. you starting fantasy prep for next winter? Sig. loss, but not devestating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Tree down in Salem near SSU.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Get the feeling its going to be a stormy Month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 NB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Heh, the 12z Euro was bit blockier... Think it's bs of course .. but it was that way in its extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NB? TNB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, the 12z Euro was bit blockier... Think it's bs of course .. but it was that way in its extended. EPS will be worth a look soon. Have blocking, have interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS will be worth a look soon. Have blocking, have interest. What's the alternative - ya know ... jeus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: EPS will be worth a look soon. Have blocking, have interest. GEFS was a much colder snowier look than it has been for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GEFS was a much colder snowier look than it has been for a while Went back to the blocking Kool-Aid it had yesterday at 12z and the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's the alternative - ya know ... jeus Boring, Sarah Mclachlin weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Went back to the blocking Kool-Aid it had yesterday at 12z and the day before. Ya ever get the feeling it's riding the edge in wait of what people want/boast that they think ...? ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Went back to the blocking Kool-Aid it had yesterday at 12z and the day before. we often see this , tipping point next few days after the super cutter as to what transpires eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Already way blockier than 00z run on the Euro ensembles at day 9...so the trend continues on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Already way blockier than 00z run on the Euro ensembles at day 9...so the trend continues on the EPS. Sure is. Right through hr 318. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Yes but ...is that just the mean mimicking the operational again - heh, who cares: go with it - I really don't want to deal with the next two weeks if it's just glancing cold that's only deep enough to make outside utterly useless to anyone. But ... we have our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boring, Sarah Mclachlin weather. you mean the singer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: you mean the singer? No, the astronaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.