RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't meant that it has to produce, but my analog set flagged March for NAO....let's see what happens. Yup, we remember. Honestly though, I am on a big emotional roller coaster ride since the feb heat wave. One foot in spring shining my clubs while the other straddles winter with lube on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But the Euro/EPS hasn't been very good either in the long range...so I guess the bottom line is, it's clown range and probably the GEFS/GFS is hitting the pipe hard. Just my opinion, but to be quite honest, if the Euro/EPS showed the same thing, I don't think I'd trust it anymore than the GFS/GEFS at this stage. My guess is the op is on crack and there may be some compromise, but I'll sell that block for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Smacks of spring, really ... the flip flopping in signals, both native to operational runs and in their larger ensemble means. Let's see... the ground is softening/muddy. We're getting days of warmth... Sun's climbing in angle. Cold patterns keep getting muted... And the GFS is trying to throw people hope - yeeah. Sounds like spring to me. Anyway, the tele's from the CDC (GEF) are only modestly supportive of the GFS beedie eyed zealotry - I trust a five year old with daddy's loaded Beretta before I'd trust these guidance. It's been a particularly awful go of it as of late - probably owing to the high speed/gradient saturated characteristic of the flow. Those are notoriously bad for the models, and this year... we've got a surplus of that anomaly going on the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Nice... -22 C @ 850 mb down to KFIT Saturday morning... one thing's for certain...there's no problem with enough cold air - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nice... -22 C @ 850 mb down to KFIT Saturday morning... one thing's for certain...there's no problem with enough cold air - Cold and dry in March, sweet combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I think GFS/GEFS has this right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cold and dry in March, sweet combo. Ya know...it's almost better than muddy ground? ...least it'll lock it down some.. But it's fleeting... well, if one believes the Euro. Seems what we're really in is a wildly oscillatory pattern... 2.5 days of biting cold, and then Kevin's napes get kissed... rinse and repeat. I cannot help but suspect that the instant the cold seasonal faucet shuts off, ...boinnng... that irrepressible southern height thing expands hugely and engulfs the whole continent beneath the 40th parallel with a truly warm spring. Admittedly...that's just the imagination talking. But that vision is based upon at least some logic, in that...what's to stop it? In a way, these last two warm ups, and the next two on the Euro later next week and beyond, are all in the least symbolic of that happening, and the lock-step expansion of warming the instant any cold at all relaxes. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think GFS/GEFS has this right. Possibly a bit overdone, but would not surprise me in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just when I was all burnt out about to nap until Novie, the gfs op rolls a fattie of white widow and DIT jumps out of back seat of his waxed truck with the lighter. What to do now.....? sober up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 33 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think GFS/GEFS has this right. I think it's 100% wrong. We haven't had blocking in years. It's not gonna start now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think it's 100% wrong. We haven't had blocking in years. It's not gonna start now A complete convenience to him being right, and you being wrong, god I hope so... ahhahaha. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 51 minutes ago, JC-CT said: sober up? ha, good one. The funny part is i dont do the drugs but it's funny how my online persona is portrayed as such. I am pro choice (drugs) though, except for opiates...those should be banned just like our illegal immigrants. They take $5hr cash jobs away from white america and opiates take souls away. Back on track, if the block verifies it better produce. Last thing we need is persistant ridging just in time for frisbee season. But a mid march slow moving snowstorm would be worth the potential slow start to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think it's 100% wrong. We haven't had blocking in years. It's not gonna start now Alternative facts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think it's 100% wrong. We haven't had blocking in years. It's not gonna start now If anything, that fact implies a greater chance because at some point, the seas will part and the NAO will drop. Persistence forecasting is a fools errand on both ends of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I'm by no means locking anything in, or speaking in absolutes, but keep an open mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 We've had major snows over the past several winters during a short periods of blocking. To say we haven't had blocking in years is a gross misstatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: We've had major snows over the past several winters during a short periods of blocking. To say we haven't had blocking in years is a gross misstatement. Transient ridging is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Transient ridging is more like it. Ginxy loves his transient blocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I have a fork in my hand for south of the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Transient ridging is more like it. Same effect and the partial etiology of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have a fork in my hand for south of the Pike Watcha eating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Watcha eating? Grilled Chicken salad but ready to stick it in this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Grilled Chicken salad but ready to stick it in this winter Sounds delicious. I've obviously checked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Euro rips gusts 50-60 mph much of the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Grilled Chicken salad but ready to stick it in this winter Surprising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just when I was all burnt out about to nap until Novie, the gfs op rolls a fattie of white widow and DIT jumps out of back seat of his waxed truck with the lighter. What to do now.....? Euro wants nothing to do with it though...big red flag... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Surprising... which part, grilled chk salad or sticking it into winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: which part, grilled chk salad or sticking it into winter? north of the Pike might have a lR shot but down here, not looking so hot. Maybe 3-4 th week is the time to watch for a transiet block that Miller Bs Ray North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: which part, grilled chk salad or sticking it into winter? Winter part....he knows his stuff, though, so we'll see. I could easily see us being done for the year, but can't help feeling one more siggy...def. agree with him that latitude will help, but any NAO may benefit lower lats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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