ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Perhaps GFS/GEFS aren't hitting the pipe too much after all?? Maybe they are on to something...Euro playing catch up perhaps????? The irony is the GEFS backed off on the blocking somewhat last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The irony is the GEFS backed off on the blocking somewhat last night. So did the teleconnectors... If anything (as far as the CDC complexion) that looks like at some point out there mid month and just beyond it could get fantastically warm... I think we're running through a period of enhanced poor skill though, with everything. Seems it's hard to get a handle on any 'signal' as there's just enough variance day to day with these derivatives to blur any efforts there. Then, we may get three days and think, finally...but then the 5th day goes out of it's way to distort matters with a different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So did the teleconnectors... If anything (as far as the CDC complexion) that looks like at some point out there mid month and just beyond it could get fantastically warm... I think we're running through a period of enhanced poor skill though, with everything. Seems it's hard to get a handle on any 'signal' as there's just enough variance day to day with these derivatives to blur any efforts there. Then, we may get three days and think, finally...but then the 5th day goes out of it's way to distort matters with a different look. Yeah the guidance has been wildly inconsistent in the long range for a couple weeks now. It's one of those things I think where if a block forms and feeds back into something pretty large, we could be spinning in the washing machine of winter threats 3 weeks deep into March (or even later)....but if it doesn't quite materialize and turns into one of those transient deals that just has decent ridging into Greenland for a couple days, then we could see another 'bout of spring by mid-month. Honestly, I could see either scenario happening. There's conflicting signals...on the one hand we have this enormous wave breaking event trying to occur from the deep cyclone that tears into Quebec...quite anomalously I should add...next week. But on the other hand, we have this backround +AO state that seems to want to keep redeveloping and as an extra opposing force, force some lower heights into the PNA region of Yukon and Northwest territories and maybe even Alaska. Not exactly the ideal look for our neck of the woods. A true block that migrates into the Davis straights would likely out-muscle the opposition and keep us in a very different sensible wx regime than if it just slips east into Iceland and eventually peters out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 This year has featured quite the standing wave pattern that has successfully engineered many model fails in the long range. As much as I hate persistence forecasting...I've found it interesting how we have always fallen back to a fast flow, SE ridge driven look thanks to the Pacific and +AO/NAO. The GFS came back from the 12z crackpipe yesterday, and I'm not sold on that type of blocking. While I'm open to the idea of ridging in the regions we always look too, I'm pulling a tactic from the Battle of Bunker Hill and not believing big blocking until I see the whites of its eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This year has featured quite the standing wave pattern that has successfully engineered many model fails in the long range. As much as I hate persistence forecasting...I've found it interesting how we have always fallen back to a fast flow, SE ridge driven look thanks to the Pacific and +AO/NAO. The GFS came back from the 12z crackpipe yesterday, and I'm not sold on that type of blocking. While I'm open to the idea of ridging in the regions we always look too, I'm pulling a tactic from the Battle of Bunker Hill and not believing big blocking until I see the whites of its eyes. Yea, makes sense. But sometimes you go with hope, wish, visions, hallucinations, and a belief in a higher spirit over science and common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This year has featured quite the standing wave pattern that has successfully engineered many model fails in the long range. As much as I hate persistence forecasting...I've found it interesting how we have always fallen back to a fast flow, SE ridge driven look thanks to the Pacific and +AO/NAO. The GFS came back from the 12z crackpipe yesterday, and I'm not sold on that type of blocking. While I'm open to the idea of ridging in the regions we always look too, I'm pulling a tactic from the Battle of Bunker Hill and not believing big blocking until I see the whites of its eyes. I'm actually very interesting in the global-scaled roll of the +AO in the character of the flow that has plagued the winter - sort of the 'standing wave' phenomenon. I think of that as more like 'stable wave' ...but the two ideas are more likely interchangeable. Anyway, to re-iterate past observations, there has been more than just the SE ridge; we call it that, and ...for intents and purposes to the forum it's not incorrect. But, the higher heights in the south issue has actually been one conjoined more pervasively than just a postive geopotential anomaly node centered over Florida and adjacent regions. I have noted on several occasions over the course of the winter that the substropical band("girdle") from south of Japan all the way around to west Africa has been ..like sneaky 1 to 6 DM higher than normal. Almost undetectable... But it's not allowing any other 'resting state' to relax the gradient everywhere. It's like a contributing negative interference, and one that's not really readily noticeable (perhaps..) but, even when the AO went negative several weeks ago, and the PNA temporarily cooperated...what did we have ? Like 15 geopotential isotachs smashed together ... I'm willing to explore the question of whether there's that additional factor to all this. I would be willing to blame it all on the +AO but it appeared to exist when the polar indexes were aligned the other way - however brief that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm actually very interesting in the global-scaled roll of the +AO in the character of the flow that has plagued the winter - sort of the 'standing wave' phenomenon. I think of that as more like 'stable wave' ...but the two ideas are more likely interchangeable. Anyway, to re-iterate past observations, there has been more than just the SE ridge; we call it that, and ...for intents and purposes to the forum it's not incorrect. But, the higher heights in the south issue has actually been one conjoined more pervasively than just a postive geopotential anomaly node centered over Florida and adjacent regions. I have noted on several occasions over the course of the winter that the substropical band("girdle") from south of Japan all the way around to west Africa has been ..like sneaky 1 to 6 DM higher than normal. Almost undetectable... But it's not allowing any other 'resting state' to relax the gradient everywhere. It's like a contributing negative interference, and one that's not really readily noticeable (perhaps..) but, even when the AO went negative several weeks ago, and the PNA temporarily cooperated...what did we have ? Like 15 geopotential isotachs smashed together ... I'm willing to explore the question of whether there's that additional factor to all this. I would be willing to blame it all on the +AO but it appeared to exist when the polar indexes were aligned the other way - however brief that was. Play around with these maps. Overall forcing has been in the maritime continent and the SE ridging is more or less in place. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/anim/anim_tp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Play around with these maps. Overall forcing has been in the maritime continent and the SE ridging is more or less in place. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/anim/anim_tp.html Yeah... intuitively (sort of) it makes sense. I was wondering why the 500 mb heights were high-ish in that band, and trying to key its origin back to the super NINO last yaer... Maybe this sort of demos and indirect link there - fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... intuitively (sort of) it makes sense. I was wondering why the 500 mb heights were high-ish in that band, and trying to key its origin back to the super NINO last yaer... Maybe this sort of demos and indirect link there - fascinating. It's almost the polar opposite of what we saw a few years back for several winters...winters like 2009-2010, 2010-2011, and 2012-2013...all had that same band of heights below normal. Probably no coincidence that so many of those storm threats and long wave patterns that supported storm threats seemed to produce at any excuse imaginable. The AO of course was super negative most of that time while we have been plagued by a positive AO more recently. Though as you note, there are some other forcings too likely at play. Scott shows that it isn't purely AO even if that is a huge part of it. We had a predominately positive AO too in 2015 yet we were doing our best impersonation of a Labrador winter for 2 months that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 GFS has -24 850's over CHH record for March 4th is -19 in 1968 ALB -25 record -22.6 1968 Euro -21 CHH, -24 ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's almost the polar opposite of what we saw a few years back for several winters...winters like 2009-2010, 2010-2011, and 2012-2013...all had that same band of heights below normal. Probably no coincidence that so many of those storm threats and long wave patterns that supported storm threats seemed to produce at any excuse imaginable. The AO of course was super negative most of that time while we have been plagued by a positive AO more recently. Though as you note, there are some other forcings too likely at play. Scott shows that it isn't purely AO even if that is a huge part of it. We had a predominately positive AO too in 2015 yet we were doing our best impersonation of a Labrador winter for 2 months that year. Those maps are pretty telling. There is a lot of heat to be realized from the eastern equatorial Pacific into the Gulf and it's not a surprise why we've seen such warmth there. Regardless of any AGW footprint...that's a pretty mild look on any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS has -24 850's over CHH record for March 4th is -19 in 1968 ALB -25 record -22.6 1968 Euro -21 CHH, -24 ALB ORH record low max going bye bye (although it was set at older location I believe). KBOS may challenge it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 MOS will be only off by 12F at 18z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those maps are pretty telling. There is a lot of heat to be realized from the eastern equatorial Pacific into the Gulf and it's not a surprise why we've seen such warmth there. Regardless of any AGW footprint...that's a pretty mild look on any day. You're the Tony Massorotti of the weather forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS has -24 850's over CHH record for March 4th is -19 in 1968 ALB -25 record -22.6 1968 Euro -21 CHH, -24 ALB I'm definitely postponing the Maine ski trip until next week. Sugarloaf looks brutal on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You're the Tony Massorotti of the weather forum lol What do you mean? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ORH record low max going bye bye (although it was set at older location I believe). KBOS may challenge it. Yeah the 19F was in 1943, that would have been the old location in north Worcester...actually not too far from winter hill but lower elevation. If we had snow cover, it would probably struggle to get above 15F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What do you mean? LOL. Painfully objective and critical to the point that it comes across as a baseline of pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Twas an active gfs run with cold lurking in the bushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Twas an active gfs run with cold lurking in the bushes. It needs to come out and expose itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those maps are pretty telling. There is a lot of heat to be realized from the eastern equatorial Pacific into the Gulf and it's not a surprise why we've seen such warmth there. Regardless of any AGW footprint...that's a pretty mild look on any day. Oh I would science last year's heat budget/lag effects off NINO, first - most definitely. I have played reference to GW wrt that whole thing out of sardonics my self... I suppose it's possible - I mean, at what point does GW begin to show up in things like atmospheric anomalies? fair enough question I suppose - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: It needs to come out and expose itself It does the next few days and we are bone dry. We need it to expose itself at the right time at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Painfully objective and critical to the point that it comes across as a baseline of pessimism. I'm not being pessimistic at all. But, you do have to put all biases aside and figure out what the heck is going on sometimes. In this case, I'm just trying to see why guidance has been so bad in the 11-15 day...and I think the atmospheric state in the nrn hemi has something to do with it. However, what happened in the past does not predict the future necessarily. While I don't buy big blocking...it would be foolish to ignore any potential of ridging up in the AO/NAO region. I just think it's wise to take a more cautious approach to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 The 18F high for CON on 3/4 is susceptible too. MOS has dews mixing down to -15F to -20F. I don't think we've seen dews that low all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Ginx windex event tomorrow being modeled. Quick whiteouts and 1 inch squalls around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 More painful objectivity ... we don't have to have 'blocking' to get storms. Sort of at risk of becoming reliant on that thinking - I don't mean to be a noog but I hate it when things like that get like pulling some chatty kathy-doll string repeating the same content likes all that or nothing. When there are certainly more important things in life to worry about - hahaha. seriously what blocking does is helps. It slows things down, first and foremost. But therein allows for a greater latitude of wiggle room ...things don't have to be perfectly situated in space and time to 'cash in' on winter appeals when there is blocking. It has to do with specifics in storm morphology and they tend to be bigger and predictable too...blah blah blah. So, just to be clear, we are talking about improving probabilities, not necessarily a holy grail. We've had some epic storms in the last 10 years in open wave progressive/fast flows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not being pessimistic at all. But, you do have to put all biases aside and figure out what the heck is going on sometimes. In this case, I'm just trying to see why guidance has been so bad in the 11-15 day...and I think the atmospheric state in the nrn hemi has something to do with it. However, what happened in the past does not predict the future necessarily. While I don't buy big blocking...it would be foolish to ignore any potential of ridging up in the AO/NAO region. I just think it's wise to take a more cautious approach to that. No, not here....but I think your comment about next year's pending nino becoming strong is a bit "strongly" worded....I mean, I see no reason to think that. Yes, R 1.2 leading the way often portends stronger events, but is very premature to be reading too much into that...the region is so malleable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: More painful objectivity ... we don't need 'blocking' to get storms. Sort of at risk of becoming reliant on that thinking -- What blocking does is slows things down, first and foremost. But therein allows for a greater latitude of wiggle room ...things don't have to be perfectly situated in space and time to 'cash in' on winter appeals when there is blocking. So, just to be clear, we are talking about improving probabilities, not necessarily a holy grail. We've has some epic storms in the last 10 years in open wave progressive/fast flows. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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