ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I recall a squall event maybe 4-6 years ago that had TSSN and dropped 2-4" inches over a decent area of SNE.. not sure of the date 1/28/10 Today's parameters actually look pretty decent, though I'd like a bit more LL moisture. The 1/28/10 event had every parameter through the roof. I remember actually expecting thundersnow in a lot of locations...which is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Today is actually the 21 year anniversary of a good windex event on 3/3/96....I remember we had good snow squalls for a couple hours that morning culminating in a rapid temp drop after the final (and most intense) squall came through. It was impressive to see the temp drop in March like that. We ended up with a couple inches on top of the 7" that fell the previous day. Yes! Ha, I remember that. There were like 2-3 good squalls with that. Of course March is as good as any month to get them as the sun is stronger and you get the updrafts going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: September. Heh... honestly, I'd take either of those two months over April in the cold minute - September has some semblance of a tropical season lurking, whether we get one or not. The idea still permeates... While even in bad warm boring Novembers, there's the awesome spectacle of a ALL of winter still to come; during which time, unless one is brain dead you either gather up the last of outdoor experiences and/or have fun with seasonal indices and discussion ...hell, Football season if that's ur bag. But come f'um April man - get the f outta the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Interesting GEFS run....the NAO blocking is considerably better than the 00z run, but the N PAC ridging is blunted well south of the EPS, so we actually get an uglier look. So we'll have to keep an eye on the N PAC too...but it is amazing the amount of shifting with each run. So as mentioned already, I'd keep an open mind on snow chances well into the month depending on what happens with some of these features. There's pretty extreme cold in Canada though on any one of these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 1/28/10 Today's parameters actually look pretty decent, though I'd like a bit more LL moisture. The 1/28/10 event had every parameter through the roof. I remember actually expecting thundersnow in a lot of locations...which is pretty rare. Yup.. that's the one. As I recall it came a day or so after another snowfall and was largely under forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Interesting GEFS run....the NAO blocking is considerably better than the 00z run, but the N PAC ridging is blunted well south of the EPS, so we actually get an uglier look. So we'll have to keep an eye on the N PAC too...but it is amazing the amount of shifting with each run. So as mentioned already, I'd keep an open mind on snow chances well into the month depending on what happens with some of these features. There's pretty extreme cold in Canada though on any one of these scenarios. With all do respect .... you could have, if not 'should' have just said the bolded above and left the rest out. I mean that's half sarcastically but really ...it's been so bad that what's the use of commenting on the other mass field regions? I really am at a futile loss with it at this point. Really pretty remarkable when you think about it - like, what is it that is making all this billion dollars of technological evolution completely pointless right now. They may as well not run any models, stick their index fingers up their butt cracks and test the wind ... J/k, but seriously? I rarely recall a time this undependable - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1/28/10 Today's parameters actually look pretty decent, though I'd like a bit more LL moisture. The 1/28/10 event had every parameter through the roof. I remember actually expecting thundersnow in a lot of locations...which is pretty rare. I'm mobile so can't check right now but I recall a late March or early April frontal passage about four or five years ago that dropped almost 4" in about 90 minutes out here. +SN w/ potato chip size flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 GGEM has a nice little snowstorm day 9 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just now, Powderboy413 said: GGEM has a nice little snowstorm day 9 lol it always does ... It seems to have a default snowstorm node on all the planetary wave inflection points, while simultaneously, poorly handling the non-phantom features embedded in the flow. I even think that is part of the on-going cause for that models general sucktitude - If it wasn't wasting space, time and energy on those ghosts, the real features might be handled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it can't snow.. let's get Morch 2012. Nobody wants tomorrow with no pack to protect Those of us with season ski passes would prefer otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 the 12 euro looks somewhat interesting if you want a last snow hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: the 12 euro looks somewhat interesting if you want a last snow hurrah. Nice little nuke at D8. It's a weenie run with the blocking...it rolls over the PAC block into the PNA region which helps and then looks like it is reloading the NAO block at the end of the run. Just another possibility in a massive spectrum of outcomes. I agree with Tip that it's been awhile since I've seen the guidance so confused for an 8-10 day forecast...we're talking the long wave features, not smaller scale stuff like storm threats. We know those can be totally bunk at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Euro crushes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Whatever it does a D8 aside... I wish I had Tuesday off with that look.. No snow pack and deep layer SW wind enveloping the area under 850s rushing toward +8 C by days end should get it pretty spectacular outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Wow, talk about a whiplash run -- every 2 days, pick a new season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wow, talk about a whiplash run -- every 2 days, pick a new season. Helps build the immune system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 That's a righteous ous block d6!on EPS! And beyond! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Even 5.5 days in the changes out west and in the Davis Straits area are pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Weenie EPS run for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Weenie EPS run for sure Day 8 threat looks decent on them...but not biting on anything for another 3+ days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Day 8 threat looks decent on them...but not biting on anything for another 3+ days at least. Wednesday is the day for seeing what has transpired with the wave break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Still kind of loses the blocking after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still kind of loses the blocking after day 10. Weenie land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Still kind of loses the blocking after day 10. Thanks, Maz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, Maz He def earned the nickname. Lets see if we can get this D8 threat any consistency inside of clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, Maz Squeaky Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, Maz Let me guess, you had Price in your fantasy draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 I could go the Red Sox FO role and just say everything is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 All kidding aside it is intriguing. It doesn't look as fantasy as previously modeled episodes. I would just let the next few days play out and at least see how the day 8 thingy plays out. Might be first test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 'sides, I'm way more sobering than Scott on here - I know that! Not that I want to incur Ray's wrath - Well, ...I don't personally count the subtle polish remover overnight runs that rubbed chaffing, as much more than mere giga motions along a route to whatever materializes in terms of amplitude... but I suspect we earn more "curvi" linear forms of that than the flat sonic speed variety. Although, I still think we're going to have to deal with the interminable subtropical band some - that's probably going to be a permanent fixture that gets lost/absorbed into the summer tapestry in the far future.. Anyway, to me I see this as 24 hours and counting... I need the three days, personally, and I'm not wavering on that, because that would beat the standard model f-up cut-off time standard they've earned this winter. Stick with it for more awhile... At a more philosophical level, ...we're colder now. That's not as silly as it sounds. That's been a big bugaboo going on a month's worth now... as cold has been routinely backing off at least excuse. That appears to finally be a bucked trend. Tomorrow will succeed at this point! Now, we see some semblance in the GEFs for -NAO for 3 to 5 days a week from now. And this is more than less mapped reasonably well from what I gather of the Euro's ensembles from the piss-poor resource I use... fwiw. But, the tandem of the two combined with these operational tempos, all told and the cold now and getting colder, I almost wonder if the cutter bomb N of Superior next week doesn't help trigger a more aggressive if transient west-based augmentation around said -NAO. These are the kind of things to consider, and they may or may not be presented on any current tools. In 2005 I saw blowing snow off an office building at 1:45 in the afternoon on April 12th... It's just the way seasonal lag works. You'd never expect that or see it in the first week of September, but going the other direction, the Earth resists seasons and that lapses affairs pretty dramatically - or in the least, gives the green late for late expressions on the ends of seasons. Duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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